SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Much cooler morning here (18C) with grey skies, looks like a wet afternoon and night to come with some very welcome rain. All clears away E by tomorrow morning and the sun should be back out. Very nice 

As long as it's better than yesterday's thundery drizzle, the gardens should get a welcome drink?

[Dami]

It's my baby's sports day this morning. windy now and rainy.  

Had days to rain and it chooses today

Where does this wind come from?  

[Methuselah]

There is a fair amount of Accas around this morning, but I'm not going to get ahead of myself.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

There is a fair amount of Accas around this morning, but I'm not going to get ahead of myself.

Risk of some thundery stuff in the heavier bursts, some potent showers have fired up ahead of the main rain band 

[Uxbridge90]

Certainly needed around these ends, grass has turned straw-like. Hopefully it'll lower the pollen count for a while as well!

 

 

[10 Days Away]

Estofex Level 1

http://www.estofex.org/

....."Current opinion based mainly on CAMs (AROME solution) is that a cluster of fast-moving storms will develop in SE England"

[Mark wheeler]

To my surprise we have sunny spells here this morning , managed to not forget my umbrella this morning for the commute back from work later , not looking forward to the rain but it is needed so welcome just about . Looks like we will soon see fine conditions return what a smashing Summer we are having . 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Already a leaden grey sky here. And it's absolutely dead calm with not even a leaf moving. Looking like a drab day ahead with dribs and drabs of rain until the heavy stuff arrives later - shown nicely on the radar just arriving on the west coast of the UK.

Radar 08.05

Arpege suggesting the heaviest rain moves through our Region late evening and into the early hours of Weds, with areas south of the M4 receiving up to 40mm in the next 24 hours.

Arpege precip 01.00 Weds  Accum to 09.00 Weds

I don't know whether you'd agree, Malcolm, but I suspect, having read members south of London saying how sunny the summer there has been so far, that there's been much more cloud up here than down there.

[Coopsy]

Still bright but much cooler. Actually really quite nice. I'll cut the grass before it rains I think 

[tomp456]

The sun of all things has decided to make a very brief appearance before the almighty floods begin. 

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I don't know whether you'd agree, Malcolm, but I suspect, having read members south of London saying how sunny the summer there has been so far, that there's been much more cloud up here than down there.

If we take the official stats from the Met Office for June 2017 it supports your theory Chris. Their summary for the month confirms that the SE of the UK was the sunniest, but as you moved away from the SE - either north or west - sunshine levels fell to below average levels.

"Sunshine was above average in south-east England, but below average in northern and western areas of the UK."
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries

Digging into the Regional values for amounts of sunshine confirms the drop-off as you move north. The figures below show the anomaly against the long-term average, starting in the SE corner, moving up into EA and then up into NE England:

England SE & Central S : 121%
East Anglia : 118%
England E & NE : 102%

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2017/june/regional-values

And further support of your theory is provided by the Rainfall Anomaly Map for June 2017. The blue shading over Norfolk confirming your part of the world saw more rainfall (and was therefore likely more cloudy?) than further south in our Region.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts

[seaside 60]

34 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

If we take the official stats from the Met Office for June 2017 it supports your theory Chris. Their summary for the month confirms that the SE of the UK was the sunniest, but as you moved away from the SE - either north or west - sunshine levels fell to below average levels.

"Sunshine was above average in south-east England, but below average in northern and western areas of the UK."
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries

Digging into the Regional values for amounts of sunshine confirms the drop-off as you move north. The figures below show the anomaly against the long-term average, starting in the SE corner, moving up into EA and then up into NE England:

England SE & Central S : 121%
East Anglia : 118%
England E & NE : 102%

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2017/june/regional-values

And further support of your theory is provided by the Rainfall Anomaly Map for June 2017. The blue shading over Norfolk confirming your part of the world saw more rainfall (and was therefore likely more cloudy?) than further south in our Region.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts

However thats also misleading in regards to the rainfall figures.

How many days did it actually rain.

Thats all in about 1 or 2 days with thunderstorms.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I had a hunch about today and the risk of some thunder later on this evening and early hours. I also saw when this "event" came onto the models Friday it was being down played. 

I'm surprised the met has not mentioned much about it, here are the totals of rain up to 6am tomorrow morning from the arome 

Impressive to say the least 

[MP-R]

Well didn't I pick a good day to come to London on business! At least London in the rain makes for some good photos and I won't boil on the tube.

[Dami]

According to the radar, I shall need a boat to do the school run. Too windy for an umbrella. 

[Methuselah]

Dry and bright, 19C...so not too bad at all.

[Blessed Weather]

21 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

However thats also misleading in regards to the rainfall figures.

How many days did it actually rain.

Thats all in about 1 or 2 days with thunderstorms.

I'm sure you're right that the Norfolk 'blue blobs' of higher rainfall would have been down to some storms seaside. My post was merely attempting to use available stats to illustrate that the weather this June in North Norfolk - where Chris lives - has indeed not been as good as further south in our Region (in support of Chris's theory).

I think the Met Office stats for the number of days with rain does support the same story (as the sunshine stats), i.e. the further south you were the better, with the situation deteriorating as you moved north.

Number of days with rain June 2017:

England SE & Central S : 5.3 days
East Anglia : 5.8 days
England E & NE : 12.1 days

[seaside 60]

8 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

I'm sure you're right that the Norfolk 'blue blobs' of higher rainfall would have been down to some storms seaside. My post was merely attempting to use available stats to illustrate that the weather this June in North Norfolk - where Chris lives - has indeed not been as good as further south in our Region (in support of Chris's theory).

I think the Met Office stats for the number of days with rain does support the same story (as the sunshine stats), i.e. the further south you were the better, with the situation deteriorating as you moved north.

Number of days with rain June 2017:

England SE & Central S : 5.3 days
East Anglia : 5.8 days
England E & NE : 12.1 days

And a wonderful job you do on here Malc. 

I dont remember much in the way of rain, ie proper rain.

That 5.3 days I would think is high for here in this little corner.

[Froze were the Days]

Decent Pm air where art thou?...still managed to get to 21c after an amazingly 'fresh' start to the day, no precipitation either, what's new?

[Blessed Weather]

40 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

And a wonderful job you do on here Malc. 

I dont remember much in the way of rain, ie proper rain.

That 5.3 days I would think is high for here in this little corner.

Cheers seaside!

Just a final thought (before I bore everyone silly) - the Met Office "regional" results (particularly rainfall) are fine for painting a broad picture about a particular month, but caution is required before equating that to a specific location within that region, especially for the summer months when most rainfall comes in the form of heavy showers! After all, the regional figures are actually an average of the results from a "representative" number of weather stations across that region.

Yesterday provided a good example. In your neck of the woods in Shoeburyness you received 0.2mm of rain, whilst just across the Thames estuary in Manston, Kent, they received 24.6mm (and lots of rain too along a narrow strip of the East Anglian coast). It's feasible that July could end up with above average rainfall for the region, whilst being below average for you!!

[Methuselah]

At last. Some proper rain!

[tomp456]

It is raining.

It is wet. 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

There has been an hour or so of heavy rain though it has dried up a but now.

[SenlacJack]

In most 'average' summers I would really resent a day like today, overcast, cool (18.2c the max ) and now raining. However as a few of you have been saying, here in this neck of the woods it's not been an 'average' summer.

Apart from a few days at the end of June and July 1st it's been a fantastic summer and todays rain is a welcome relief for the garden. Hopefully this is just a temporary blip and we can quickly get back to what preceded it.

[stainesbloke]

Some decent rainfall here today, still going strong. Big cool down too, reached 20C earlier but a rather chilly 15C now. Saves watering the garden and allotment, hurrah.