SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

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Beebs take on it this evening  smiliar to lunch time 

Edited May 16, 2017 by Surrey

[Wivenswold]

 

Looks like the heaviest rain on the 21:50 radar is taking the M25 SE of London.

 

Edited May 16, 2017 by Wivenswold

[stainesbloke]

Mild this evening, there have been a few bursts of rain and the wind has finally calmed down. 17C currently. Looking forward to tomorrow, will be interesting to see just how much rain we get and if there are any thunderstorms. 

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Some places over night manily in a diagonal line from Bournemouth through West London and into Norwich have had nearly 20mm of rain overnight. A lot more than expected. Wonder what the totals will look like at 9pm tonight! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looping the radar back I can see why there is so much surface flooding here this morning. Lots of dodging large puddles and blocked drains. With such dry ground there is going to be a lot of run off today especially where drains are blocked 

[Blessed Weather]

Well after watching all the forecasts and checking models I wasn't expecting to be disturbed in the wee small hours by the noise of very heavy rain! Yesterday I emptied my garden rain gauge - ready to measure the heavy stuff expected this coming Wed night for my location - but this morning there's already been an incredible 28 mm of rain!! So when the front finally clears through here tonight it will now be an added bonus!

The rain is stopping now (07.30) but here's how the radar looked at 05.10

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Look at all of that down into biscay!!! A very wet day ahead indeed. 

[stainesbloke]

Lots of rain here through the night, around 20mm. Looks like plenty more to come later. 

[Flash Elvis]

Had 21mm over night...... I wasn't expecting that much tbh!! Looks like I might have sowed my new grass a bit late!!!

[Dami]

It's tropical out there again. Still raining on and off. Although i know people hate this kind of weather, i positively thrive in these weather conditions. Had a lovely walk in the fro school, the birds were singing, it feels stormy. Sure, when i go out again later and it's pouring i'll be like , but i have my new rain weathers stuffs now  

The garden looks lush and green at last too.

 

Edited May 17, 2017 by Dami

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Wow... 

[Dami]

yesh it's gonna rain baby.

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Torrential rain now bit just before it did I saw these skies 

[Daniel*]

It definitely looks the eastern extent has been overdone by the models compared to real time west of London very wet while east I do not see much at all if nothing at least it rained overnight quite well in those parts?

Edited May 17, 2017 by Changing Skies

[NO LONGER POSTING]

20 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

It definitely looks the eastern extent has been overdone by the models compared to real time west of London very wet while east I do not see much at all if nothing at least it rained overnight quite well in those parts?

Have to agree, looks like the euro4 called this right, we now have to look the other side of the front across Wales to see if it moves east and how quickly... Going to be some massive totals later across central southern England 

And to think the front is going to pep up even more before clearing out the way.. 

Edited May 17, 2017 by Surrey

[fujita5]

23 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Have to agree, looks like the euro4 called this right, we now have to look the other side of the front across Wales to see if it moves east and how quickly... Going to be some massive totals later across central southern England 

And to think the front is going to pep up even more before clearing out the way.. 

All the forecasts and model output I saw up until midnight showed the band initially in this kind of position (maybe 50 miles further east) but the overnight rain in the East seemed to be massively underdone.  Even at home in Clacton we got 18mm overnight and just north of Colchester (where I work) got in excess of 25mm, where most forecasts seemed to show light rain and a max of 5mm. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the band trundle east 50 miles or so over the next 8 hours and any embedded convection will likely be in the eastern portion of the rain band... and may actually be ahead of the area of precip as destabilisation occurs and storms develop in the muggy sunshine over the European mainland.  I still wouldn't rule out some very big totals for SE regions and parts of East Anglia during this evening.

[Norfolk Sheep]

5 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

All the forecasts and model output I saw up until midnight showed the band initially in this kind of position (maybe 50 miles further east) but the overnight rain in the East seemed to be massively underdone.  Even at home in Clacton we got 18mm overnight and just north of Colchester (where I work) got in excess of 25mm, where most forecasts seemed to show light rain and a max of 5mm. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the band trundle east 50 miles or so over the next 8 hours and any embedded convection will likely be in the eastern portion of the rain band... and may actually be ahead of the area of precip as destabilisation occurs and storms develop in the muggy sunshine over the European mainland.  I still wouldn't rule out some very big totals for SE regions and parts of East Anglia during this evening.

Will definitely be interesting - managed 10mm overnight and into this morning (1mm more than my March total) SW of Norwich. Better than nothing at all 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

All the forecasts and model output I saw up until midnight showed the band initially in this kind of position (maybe 50 miles further east) but the overnight rain in the East seemed to be massively underdone.  Even at home in Clacton we got 18mm overnight and just north of Colchester (where I work) got in excess of 25mm, where most forecasts seemed to show light rain and a max of 5mm. 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the band trundle east 50 miles or so over the next 8 hours and any embedded convection will likely be in the eastern portion of the rain band... and may actually be ahead of the area of precip as destabilisation occurs and storms develop in the muggy sunshine over the European mainland.  I still wouldn't rule out some very big totals for SE regions and parts of East Anglia during this evening.

I thought last night's rain was associated with a Diffrent front? Yes, was massively massively under done all round and some places got over 20mm when less than 5mm if any was forecast!! 

I think somewhere between Surrey and Kent say around Croydon will be getting the highest totals today. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

She just dont wanna budge yet.. 

[fujita5]

22 minutes ago, Surrey said:

She just dont wanna budge yet.. 

Have a look at the European view and animate the last hour - there's some decent eastward progression over France!

[snowray]

Just missing out here, its going to move a bit further west this afternoon before that new lot from France starts to push everything though eastwards later on into the evening. 

Just as well I got a fair bit of rain last night everything looking a lot greener, my potatoes seem to have grown half as much again since yesterday. I want more rain!

[tomp456]

Is this rain heading east or just north/ north-west? 

Is stick as heck out there, need some rain!

Was expecting the heavy rain by now but all we've had are a few spits!!! 

Mother nature is a joke! 

The rain seems to be west of chichester/portsmouth 

Edited May 17, 2017 by tomp456

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Is this rain heading east or just north/ north-west? 

Is stick as heck out there, need some rain!

Was expecting the heavy rain by now but all we've had are a few spits!!! 

Mother nature is a joke! 

The rain seems to be west of chichester/portsmouth 

It will move back west first, then later on back east again to effect all of the SE before clearing tonight.

[Mark wheeler]

Stay out of the way please rain until after 6 . I haven't got the umbrella for the journey home . The front seems to be backing west for now .

[<<Ryan>>]

Just under 24c here. I agree, it is so sticky out.
I'm hoping for a few storms to form ahead of the main band across northern France which will become embedded in the heavy rain as they move towards the far south east. I was watching some convection on sat24 and a couple of showers have now formed, lets see if these can become electrified. 
Still, if nothing happens today, there are more storm opportunities over the coming days to look forward to 

And just a few minutes after I posted this, the first lightning strike from one of the cells ahead of the band! Looking pretty explosive down there.

Edited May 17, 2017 by <<Ryan>>