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Roger J Smith

May 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

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As some are already tracking the outcome of the spring CET average, I thought I would look at the year to date average and here's what I found ...

RANK _ YEAR __ mean Jan to May __ what May 2017 needs to tie 

__ 1 ___ 2007 ________ 8.62 ____________ 15.2 

__ 2 ___ 1990 ________ 8.54 ____________ 14.8

__ 3 ___ 2014 ________ 8.38 ____________ 14.0

_ t 4 ___ 1998, 2002 ___ 8.24 ____________ 13.3

__ 6 ___ 2011 ________ 8.16 ____________ 12.9

_  t 7 _1686,1834,1999 _ 8.10 ____________ 12.6

_t 10 _1733,1779,1961 _ 8.00 ____________ 12.1

 

So it would appear that 2017 will move into 7th place, or possibly tie 6th or even move into 6th place alone.

I followed the usual convention of taking the average of the five monthly values. If you looked at the average of the first 151 days of the year (none of these were leap years) it might change the order very slightly. For example, 1779 had the warmest February but that was only 28 of the 151 days. 

Looking ahead, if I assign 13.0 to May, then the top three January to June leaders are 

RANK _ YEAR __ mean Jan to June __ what June 2017 needs to tie (if May 13.0)

__ 1 ___ 2007 _________ 9.70 _____________ 17.3

__ 2 ___ 1846 _________ 9.52 _____________ 16.2

__ 3 ___ 2014 _________ 9.50 _____________ 16.1

It can be inferred that June's requirement changes in the opposite sense that May actually ends relative to that estimate. For example, if it's really 12.9 in May then June will need 0.1 more than those values to tie the top three. 

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Sunny Sheffield up to 12C +0.2C above normal.

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Well looking at the Net Weather average its zipping up around 0.3c per day, for the past 4 days.

If this carried on till the end of the month it would be pretty amazing and ruin every ones guess.. 

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12.6 to the 25th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average
1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 12.6 to the 25th

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I was going to go for a warm May but with the models showing a cool period at the end of April, I decided to for a closer to average 11.6C.  Should have stuck with my gut instinct.......

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1 hour ago, Don said:

I was going to go for a warm May but with the models showing a cool period at the end of April, I decided to for a closer to average 11.6C.  Should have stuck with my gut instinct.......

The first 21 days were below average the first seven by a lot. However the last few days have been more akin to July which show how warm this spell is.

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The estimated may end at 13.3, with corrections maybe 13.1 or 13.2, I haven't seen many days that seem to need much of a nudge, but we never know for sure. That will make this the 6th warmest January to May, shoving 2011 aside like it was the president of Montenegro.

It can't keep going up at the same rate for two reasons, more days in the denominator and less added to the numerator.

If you want to say 12.8 through today, then that's 26 x 12.8 which is 332.8, So if the last five days average 16, that will add a further 80, giving 412.8 divided by 31 then, and that's 13.4 -- probably the upper limit as the last five days may average closer to 15 than 16. 

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Yesterday's (25th) estimate was 19.4, that would have been a record on either the 24th or the 26th, but not the 25th thanks to the earliest 21.0 of any year in 1953.

Today is on track to take a swipe at the 26th (18.7 in 1784). Pershore showing max 28 and min 12 (average 20).

Here's the portion of the table of CET averages (for 1981-2010) and extremes from 24th to end of month.

DATE ____ CET ___ CET cum __ MAX (1772-2016) _ MIN (1772-2016)

___ 24 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.4 __________ 18.8 1953 __ 5.7 1867

___ 25 ___ 12.5 ___ 11.4 __________ 21.0 1953 __ 6.5 1814

___ 26 ___ 12.4 ___ 11.5 __________ 18.7 1784 __ 4.6 1821

___ 27 ___ 12.1 ___ 11.5 __________ 19.0 1788 __ 6.6 1984

___ 28 ___ 12.3 ___ 11.5 __________ 20.6 1847 __ 6.2 1869

___ 29 ___ 12.8 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.2 1780 __ 6.2 1869 ___ (note 21.1 1944, 20.8 1947)

___ 30 ___ 13.1 ___ 11.6 __________ 21.0 1944 __ 4.9 1807 ___ (note 19.9 1947)

___ 31 ___ 13.3 ___ 11.7 __________ 20.5 1947 __ 6.4 1802

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Years with at least one mean daily CET of 19.0 or higher 24-31 May, and what happened in those summers, plus three that came close to qualifying (1784 had two days above 18, 2012 had several, and 2003 had 18.9 on the 31st). I also added 1833, 1916 and 1918 after the list as they had record warmth close to this period.

YEAR ___ days _________ JUN _ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV _ DEC _ JAN _ FEB

1780 ____ 2 (28, 29) _____ 14.2 _ 16.8 _ 17.6 _ 15.6 __ 9.1 __ 4.4 __ 3.2 __ 2.1 __ 4.8

1781 ____ 1 (31) ________ 16.2 _ 17.4 _ 17.3 _ 14.2 _ 10.6 __ 6.5 __ 5.4 __ 5.2 __ 1.9

1784 ____ 0 (but close) ___ 13.7 _ 15.2 _ 14.0 _ 14.8 __ 7.8 __ 5.5 __ 0.3 __ 3.4 __ 0.4

1788 ____ 1 (27) ________ 15.4 _ 15.8 _ 15.8 _ 13.4 __ 9.8 __ 6.1 __--0.3 __ 1.5 __ 5.0

1807 ____ 1 (25) ________ 14.2 _ 17.1 _ 16.9 _ 10.5 _ 11.4 __ 2.9 __ 1.9 __ 2.6 __ 2.8

1847 ____ 1 (28) ________ 13.9 _ 17.5 _ 15.2 _ 11.5 _ 10.7 __ 7.9 __ 4.8 __ 1.3 __ 6.1

1944 ____ 2 (29,30) ______ 13.5 _ 16.5 _ 17.0 _ 12.5 __ 9.3 __ 6.2 __ 3.6 __ 0.4 __ 7.1

1947 ____ 3 (29,30,31) ___ 15.5 _ 17.0 _ 18.6 _ 14.9 _ 10.6 __ 7.2 __ 5.1 __ 5.4 __ 4.7

1953 ____ 1 (25) ________ 14.4 _ 15.5 _ 16.2 _ 13.8 __ 9.7 __ 8.5 __ 6.9 __ 2.9 __ 2.6

1978 ____ 1 (31) ________ 13.7 _ 14.8 _ 15.0 _ 14.2 _ 11.9 __ 8.5 __ 3.9 __--0.4 __ 1.2

2003 ____ 0 (but 18.9 31st)_16.1 _ 17.6 _ 18.3 _ 14.3 __ 9.2 __ 8.1 __ 4.8 __ 5.2 __ 5.4

2012 ____ 0 (but close) ___ 13.5 _ 15.5 _ 16.6 _ 13.0 __ 9.7 __ 6.8 __ 4.8 __ 3.5 __ 3.2

 

median __ 2 days ________ 14.3 _ 16.7 _ 16.8 _ 13.8 _ 9.7 __ 6.7 __ 4.4 __ 2.8 __ 4.0

 

1833 ____ 15.1 C May ____ 14.6 _ 15.8 _ 14.3 _ 12.1 _ 10.1 __ 6.6 __ 6.9 __ 7.1 __ 5.6

1916 ____ warm ~ 20th ___ 11.8 _ 15.3 _ 16.4 _ 13.0 _ 10.6 __ 6.8 __ 1.9 __ 1.6 __ 0.9

1918 ____ warm ~ 22nd ___ 13.3 _ 15.4 _ 16.1 _ 11.9 __ 9.3 __ 5.5 __ 6.9 __ 2.9 __ 1.9

 

Conclusions -- The summers following warm end of May periods seem to run a bit warmer than average throughout with August most evidently warmer than normal. The autumns appear more average and the winters somewhat colder than normal. The cases with the earlier heat did not do nearly as well in summer (as with near miss 2012) but except for 1833-34 had rather cold winters as well, 1833-34 like 1947-48 and 2003-04 in the main table had mild winters but only 1833-34 was exceptionally mild. 

Possible reasons for summer outcome -- Late May warmth signals robust Azores high development, and 3 month minor variation signal could be a period for blocking (as in May, Aug, Nov, Feb etc) which fits one paradigm in my research about retrogressive blocking. However that signal is weak, in most of the warmer summers indicated, August was just a little warmer than July. 

What I think it means for 2017 -- Good sales for a/c in England. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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My entry was at todays 12.6c, looks like I am going to end up a fair bit too low now. Funny how a month can turn around really quickly.

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In the tables I posted, notice the factoid that 19.8 on 25 May 1807 (a record broken in 1953) was followed on 30 May by an incredibly cold 4.9 C, far lower than any daily reading in June. If this record had not been broken, this would be the fastest turnaround from record high to low (as it stands, I think that was in late April of 1945). 

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Roger J Smith - Further to your analysis of Summers following warm May's. Could you do this with regards to years 1998 & 2008? Both had rubbish summers after warm and sunny May's. Indeed seems to be a bit of a curse for years ending in 8 when you throw in 1978 and 1918.

My own analysis of this has looked at all the years since 1900 (dont trust the pre 20th century warm figures) with 13+ CET for May and throwing in one exception. They are as follows: 1918, 1919, 1947, 1952, 1964, 1970, 1989,1992, 1998, 2008. I would also like to throw in 1911 which had a May CET of 12.9

Of these the Summer that follows is a bit of a mixed bag but three patterns seem to emerge. Either 1. The summer that follows is abysmal (eg. 1919, 1964, and all the years ending in an 8  OR 2. The summer continues into an exceptional June then crashes in July August (1970, 1992) OR 3. The summer is a true record breaker (1947, 1989 and 1911).

We shall see what follows this year but I think its all noticeable that many of the exceptional summers (17+ CET across the summer) of the 20th century did have above average Mays. Really only 1983 goes against this.

 

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12.9 to the 26th

1.9 above the 61 to 90 average
1.4 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 12.9 to the 26th

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Sunny Sheffield now at 12.3C +0.5C above normal.

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13.1 to the 27th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average
1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 13.1 to the 27th

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12.8c here to the 27th, 2.3c above the 19810-2010 average.

Amazing to think earlier in the month we were 1c below average, quite a turn around!

Temps easing off a bit over the next few days but looks to remain average untill the end of the month.

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Sunny old Sheffield just outside the cet zone now at 12.6C +0.8C above normal.However only 70% of rainfall.

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I had an inkling that some warmer weather would push the CET up, hence my stab at 13.

Currently 13.4 here, 0.2 above last years, which is nice.

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Okay, so I reworked the table to show outcomes for all top 30 months of May that averaged 12.9 or higher and this eliminated many of the cases that had a warm end to May, so I list those at the end of this table and show the averages for the top 30 and the 30 plus the 10 eliminated from the original list.

 

YEAR __ May CET_ JUN _ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV _ DEC _ JAN _ FEB

1833 ____ 15.1 ____ 14.6 _ 15.8 _ 14.3 _ 12.1 _ 10.1 __ 6.6 __ 6.9 __ 7.1 __ 5.6

1848 ____ 13.9 ____ 14.5 _ 15.6 _ 13.6 _ 12.8 __ 9.7 __ 5.8 __ 5.6 __ 3.9 __ 5.7

1758 ____ 13.8 ____ 14.6 _ 14.2 _ 16.4 _ 11.9 __ 8.1 __ 5.7 __ 3.9 __ 5.9 __ 5.8

1788 ____ 13.8 ____ 15.4 _ 15.8 _ 15.8 _ 13.4 __ 9.8 __ 6.1 __--0.3__ 1.5 __ 5.0

1808 ____ 13.7 ____ 14.8 _ 18.4 _ 16.7 _ 12.7 __ 7.2 __ 6.0 __ 2.2 __ 2.0 __ 5.7

1727 ____ 13.6 ____ 14.9 _ 16.9 _ 16.9 _ 14.4 _ 10.8 __ 4.7 __ 3.6 __ 3.9 __ 2.4

1992 ____ 13.6 ____ 15.7 _ 16.2 _ 15.3 _ 13.4 __ 7.8 __ 7.4 __ 3.6 __ 5.9 __ 4.6

1784 ____ 13.5 ____ 13.7 _ 15.2 _ 14.0 _ 14.8 __ 7.8 __ 5.5 __ 0.3 __ 3.4 __ 0.4

1868 ____ 13.5 ____ 15.5 _ 18.3 _ 16.8 _ 14.3 __ 8.4 __ 4.9 __ 7.2 __ 5.6 __ 7.5

1919 ____ 13.5 ____ 14.3 _ 13.9 _ 15.7 _ 12.7 __ 7.4 __ 3.3 __ 5.5 __ 5.2 __ 6.0

1947 ____ 13.5 ____ 15.5 _ 17.0 _ 18.6 _ 14.9 _ 10.6 __ 7.2 __ 5.1 __ 5.4 __ 4.7

1726 ____ 13.4 ____ 16.4 _ 16.0 _ 15.6 _ 14.7 _ 10.2 __ 6.1 __ 1.8 __ 4.2 __ 5.0

1952 ____ 13.4 ____ 14.4 _ 16.8 _ 15.8 _ 10.7 __ 8.8 __ 4.2 __ 2.8 __ 3.3 __ 4.3

2008 ____ 13.4 ____ 13.9 _ 16.2 _ 16.2 _ 13.5 __ 9.7 __ 7.0 __ 3.5 __ 3.0 __ 4.1

1743 ____ 13.3 ____ 15.6 _ 14.9 _ 16.9 _ 14.2 __ 8.9 __ 9.3 __ 4.9 __ 1.4 __ 2.9

1804 ____ 13.3 ____ 16.1 _ 15.9 _ 15.6 _ 14.2 _ 10.7 __ 6.6 __ 2.1 __ 2.1 __ 4.1

1964 ____ 13.3 ____ 13.8 _ 16.1 _ 15.5 _ 14.1 __ 8.9 __ 7.4 __ 3.6 __ 3.3 __ 3.1

1809 ____ 13.1 ____ 13.7 _ 15.1 _ 14.8 _ 12.7 _ 10.2 __ 4.6 __ 4.1 __ 2.2 __ 3.5

1893 ____ 13.1 ____ 15.6 _ 16.4 _ 17.4 _ 12.9 __ 9.9 __ 5.2 __ 4.8 __ 3.4 __ 5.1

1998 ____ 13.1 ____ 14.2 _ 15.5 _ 15.9 _ 14.9 _ 10.6 __ 6.2 __ 5.5 __ 5.5 __ 5.3

1684 ____ 13.0 ____ 15.0 _ 16.0 _ 15.5 _ 12.0 _ 11.0 __ 3.0 __ 4.0 __ 0.5 __ 3.5

1834 ____ 13.0 ____ 15.4 _ 16.9 _ 16.2 _ 13.8 _ 10.6 __ 6.7 __ 5.6 __ 2.9 __ 5.7

1918 ____ 13.0 ____ 13.3 _ 15.4 _ 16.1 _ 11.9 __ 9.3 __ 5.5 __ 6.9 __ 2.9 __ 1.9

1970 ____ 13.0 ____ 16.4 _ 15.2 _ 16.0 _ 14.4 _ 10.7 __ 7.8 __ 4.3 __ 4.5 __ 4.5

1989 ____ 13.0 ____ 14.6 _ 18.2 _ 16.6 _ 14.7 _ 11.7 __ 6.2 __ 4.9 __ 6.5 __ 7.3

1762 ____ 12.9 ____ 16.9 _ 17.8 _ 15.3 _ 13.6 __ 7.9 __ 4.6 __ 3.6 __--0.8__ 4.9

1798 ____ 12.9 ____ 16.9 _ 16.3 _ 16.4 _ 13.6 __ 9.9 __ 4.7 __ 1.5 __ 1.7 __ 2.8

1889 ____ 12.9 ____ 15.3 _ 15.3 _ 14.7 _ 12.8 __ 8.6 __ 6.9 __ 3.3 __ 5.7 __ 3.1

1911 ____ 12.9 ____ 14.5 _ 18.2 _ 18.2 _ 13.9 __ 9.3 __ 6.1 __ 6.2 __ 3.6 __ 5.4 

1999 ____ 12.9 ____ 13.9 _ 17.7 _ 16.1 _ 15.6 _ 10.7 __ 7.9 __ 5.0 __ 4.9 __ 6.3

 

mean __ 30 yrs ____ 15.0 _ 16.3 _ 16.1 _ 13.5 __ 9.6 __ 6.1 __ 4.1 __ 3.7 __ 4.5

mean __ 40 yrs ____ 14.8 _ 16.3 _ 16.2 _ 13.5 __ 9.7 __ 6.2 __ 4.1 __ 3.4 __ 4.3

mean __1911-2012 _ 14.3 _ 16.2 _ 16.5 _ 13.6 __ 9.9 __ 6.7 __ 4.6 __ 3.7 __ 4.2

 

(40 yrs includes these cases with warm end of May readings)

1780 ____ 12.8 ____ 14.2 _ 16.8 _ 17.6 _ 15.6 __ 9.1 __ 4.4 __ 3.2 __ 2.1 __ 4.8

1781 ____ 12.1 ____ 16.2 _ 17.4 _ 17.3 _ 14.2 _ 10.6 __ 6.5 __ 5.4 __ 5.2 __ 1.9

1807 ____ 11.8 ____ 14.2 _ 17.1 _ 16.9 _ 10.5 _ 11.4 __ 2.9 __ 1.9 __ 2.6 __ 2.8

1847 ____ 12.3 ____ 13.9 _ 17.5 _ 15.2 _ 11.5 _ 10.7 __ 7.9 __ 4.8 __ 1.3 __ 6.1

1916 ____ 11.6 ____ 11.8 _ 15.3 _ 16.4 _ 13.0 _ 10.6 __ 6.8 __ 1.9 __ 1.6 __ 0.9

1944 ____ 11.4 ____ 13.5 _ 16.5 _ 17.0 _ 12.5 __ 9.3 __ 6.2 __ 3.6 __ 0.4 __ 7.1

1953 ____ 12.6 ____ 14.4 _ 15.5 _ 16.2 _ 13.8 __ 9.7 __ 8.5 __ 6.9 __ 2.9 __ 2.6

1978 ____ 11.7 ____ 13.7 _ 14.8 _ 15.0 _ 14.2 _ 11.9 __ 8.5 __ 3.9 __--0.4 __ 1.2

2003 ____ 12.1 ____ 16.1 _ 17.6 _ 18.3 _ 14.3 __ 9.2 __ 8.1 __ 4.8 __ 5.2 __ 5.4

2012 ____ 11.7 ____ 13.5 _ 15.5 _ 16.6 _ 13.0 __ 9.7 __ 6.8 __ 4.8 __ 3.5 __ 3.2

 

ANALYSIS: The only significant anomaly after the warm Mays would be June running almost a degree above long-term normals. The summers remain reasonably warm overall and contain a good sampling of hot summers. The autumn and winter data become more scattered and average out near normal values (long-term). Looking at only the cases since 1911, the outcomes remain fairly random and in fact the warmer June bias disappears from the more recent set. 

 

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Sunny Sheffield 12.7C  +0.9C probably drop tomorrow as it's quite cold and damp.

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13.2 to the 28th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average
1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 13.2 to the 28th

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13.3 to the 29th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average
1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________________

Current high this month 13.3 to the 29th

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Sunny Sheffield 12.7C courtesy of a mild night. It was milder than day time yesterday.

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13.0c here to the 29th, 2.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

Still mild by day but a couple of chilly nights left may well keep the mean where it is.

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We're on 13.2C at the moment, 2.0C above the 1981-2010 average. The previous warmest was 1999 (12.7C), so it'll be comfortably the warmest on record, just like March was.

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