Summer 2017 Discussion

[Matthew.]

Yes Mediterranean style would be lovely

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

This chart looks like a real classic summer setting up, HP in scandi with the azores creeping in from the SW.

Looks like next week we could be touching 30C in May for the first time since a while.

 

 

[Matthew.]

Just picked out a few random cities from Thursday next week To be fair it's good from tomorrow. Temperatures already showing 20's, what will be nearer the time I wonder.

[Guest]

Just a thought.. 1995 and 2006 have the same calendar as this year, easter Sundays for all 3 years fell on 16 April, all 3 Mays have/had blips in dry periods, 3 outstanding summers perhaps?  We can only hope..

[B87]

Are we finally going to see a return to more normal summer sunshine and rainfall. The post 2007 summers have been appalling for sunshine totals.

Here, 2013 had average sun hours (625) and 2014 was slightly above average (650). The 3rd sunniest year was 2015 with only 520 hours, which is over 100 below average!

Interestingly, the last time we had 30c in May was in 2005, which was also the last time that August didn't have below average sunshine!

Edited May 20, 2017 by B87

[Summer Sun]

30 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

Just picked out a few random cities from Thursday next week To be fair it's good from tomorrow. Temperatures already showing 20's, what will be nearer the time I wonder.

 

My guess is London will hit 30c & some north cities to increase by 3 or 4c IF the current trend keeps up

[reef]

4 hours ago, B87 said:

It's been a long time since we've had a summer that had above average sun.  2014 just about managed it, and 2005 was the last before that!

It hasn't been a long time at all. 2013 and 2014 both did.

[B87]

10 minutes ago, reef said:

It hasn't been a long time at all. 2013 and 2014 both did.

My summer sunshine average is 621 hrs. 2013 had 625 hrs (so very slightly above average) and 2014 had 650 hrs. The next sunniest was 2015, which had over 100 hours below average.  All the others were notably worse.

Thats 2 summers that were very slightly above average, and 8 summers that were well below average. The 1960s had sunnier summers than the last decade!

Compare the last 20 years; the 97-06 summers had an average of 635 hrs, which is 14 hrs above the average. The post 2007 summers have been over 100 hours below average.

1997: 583.0 hrs
1998: 570.9 hrs
1999: 714.8 hrs
2000: 555.6 hrs
2001: 688.0 hrs
2002: 575.8 hrs
2003: 714.7 hrs
2004: 650.8 hrs
2005: 672.2 hrs
2006: 631.9 hrs
--------------------
2007: 492.2 hrs
2008: 478.7 hrs
2009: 516.2 hrs
2010: 492.8 hrs
2011: 491.2 hrs
2012: 462.7 hrs
2013: 624.4 hrs
2014: 650.2 hrs
2015: 520.8 hrs
2016: 485.9 hrs

Edited May 20, 2017 by B87

[stainesbloke]

14 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

26-ish by day and I'm guessing around 16-17c nights? I'll never understand how people look forward to sweating from dawn until dusk.

Perfect summer conditions, nice and warm by day and great for some dining outside in the evening. Quite warm for the bedroom but with the fan on, no issue. 3 months of that and I'd be very happy  My main hope for summer here is higher than average sunshine. Doesn't have to be a constant heatwave but at least plenty of warm spells. 

Edited May 20, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

On the negative side this upcoming warm spell is like a reminder to the similar warm spell at the end of May 2012.  Cant help thinking whats going to come next? 

[Peejayem]

15 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

26-ish by day and I'm guessing around 16-17c nights? I'll never understand how people look forward to sweating from dawn until dusk.

And I don't understand why some people look forward to the prospect of freezing their nuts off in winter...but each to their own

[Summer Sun]

Stunner from GEM it's rare we see +20 850's in summer let alone late May

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Northern England looks good this week compared to one of the hottest places in UK 

[weatherguru14]

Looking at pressure charts and the Met office  prediction for a  very warm middle of June..could 2017 be a classic summer?? fingers crossed

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

The met office are predicting a poor start to Summer - so looks like a two week doom festival before we see another 23C. Make the most of this week.  

[damianslaw]

Its often not until the latter part of June that we can with any confidence begin to call the likelihood of the dominant factors and thus set up for the remainder of the season, just like the northern hemisphere usually settles into its base mid winter state around christmas. I'm always a bit wary when we have a very warm settled spell first half of June just like a cold settled spell first half of Dec, often tends to be a flip, much rather have the sustained warmer conditions late June, and conversely cold late Dec, as that is the time the jetstream tends to settle into its groove for the rest of the season.. and thus the likelihood of such weather re-occuring to greater depths through the rest of the season are far greater.

Edited May 22, 2017 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

14 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Its often not until the latter part of June that we can with any confidence begin to call the likelihood of the dominant factors and thus set up for the remainder of the season, just like the northern hemisphere usually settles into its base mid winter state around christmas. I'm always a bit wary when we have a very warm settled spell first half of June just like a cold settled spell first half of Dec, often tends to be a flip, much rather have the sustained warmer conditions late June, and conversely cold late Dec, as that is the time the jetstream tends to settle into its groove for the rest of the season.. and thus the likelihood of such weather re-occuring to greater depths through the rest of the season are far greater.

Worth keeping in mind though that so many summers have seen June and July bearing similar weather, only for it to flip in August, so it's not a be all and end all.

[Evening thunder]

22 hours ago, 40*C said:

The met office are predicting a poor start to Summer - so looks like a two week doom festival before we see another 23C. Make the most of this week.  

Are they? Unless you mean the further outlook mentioning it being more unsettled for a week or so before becoming more settled with warm possibly very warm temps which sounds alright to me.

[weatherguru14]

We had  4/5 decent days prior to this current hot spell in May. Hopefully tomorrow the thunderstorms wont be  wide spread and most of the country will get a fine day once  more. Sunday is looking  fine. Monday looks iffy.. Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday look  good again next week. So all in all   not bad whatsoever.. Obviously not as hot  in the next few days. But  very acceptable.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 2017-4-11 at 20:53, CreweCold said:

Hard to tell from the pressure anomaly

Possibly a slight bias towards continent meets Atlantic? 

I'll just add, I feel like this is first time in many summers that there is the potential for a 1995 scenario, maybe even a '76. This is, of course, not saying it's likely.

No reason to change my thoughts from early last month

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Gavin P has put a video on you tube about model outputs for the summer.  Everything points at a warmer than average summer. Judge for yourselves...

 

[weatherguru14]

Its only 18/19c  so down on recent days.. But it feels  lovely out there.. Very warm sunshine...When the met office says unsettled on the long range forecast.. To me  it means the odd  weather front passing through.. as soon as that happens pressure builds again.The temperatures this year are definitely higher than in recent years... And in the second week of June the possibility of  much warmer  temps. Add  into the mix the weather predicted the coming week. Looking good so far  :)..

[weatherguru14]

I don't get the doom and gloom what ive read from some... Most are predicting a  SW air flow. means once a low passes threw  we will get the odd nice day or 2 in a row. the bbc have lows  moving  from the SW to NW..

Like  I say it could be worse   the lows could be  moving from the NW -South.  and we would not only be wet  but cold as well. Its looks decent  to me. Not perfect. But it never is in the UK. and the next   3 days are looking fine  for most of the UK...

[damianslaw]

No predictions, but perhaps a rather wetter than average season, given how much drier than average the last three have been. Overdue a warm wet one I think, can't remember the last warm wet one, 2004 possibly? Recent wet summers have been average/cooler than normal, and warmer summers drier or near average rainwise, 2013 and 2014 falling into the latter category.

Long overdue a sunny August.

[B87]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

No predictions, but perhaps a rather wetter than average season, given how much drier than average the last three have been.

Long overdue a sunny August.

Of the last 3 summers here, 2014 and 2015 were both wetter than average; 2016 was average.

August is very much overdue a sunny one.