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Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2017 - The Melt Season

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Just now, jvenge said:

Depends what the storm brings. A storm itself won't shake things up now, but in recent years temperatures have had a tendency to jump way above average in Autumn and Winter. It would need to be an almighty jump to melt some ice now, but we did see some huge jumps last year, so never say never I guess.

The storm will likely cause some melt through mixing waters at the near surface, but the biggest impact on extent would come from compaction of the pack along the Pacific side of the Arctic. This is the time of year when the sea ice is most easily shifted about by winds.

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Just now, BornFromTheVoid said:

The storm will likely cause some melt through mixing waters at the near surface, but the biggest impact on extent would come from compaction of the pack along the Pacific side of the Arctic. This is the time of year when the sea ice is most easily shifted about by winds.

Let's see. Last few days the growth seems reasonable, so hard to imagine how it can get below the called low now, but nothing surprises me up there at this time of year anymore.

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Just now, jvenge said:

Let's see. Last few days the growth seems reasonable, so hard to imagine how it can get below the called low now, but nothing surprises me up there at this time of year anymore.

Like I mentioned, using the NSIDC data we're only 60k above the minimum. Actually, make that 77k above (yesterdays data was just released). Unlikely to beat the minimum, true, but it's well within the realm of possibility to see extent drop more than that, purely through compaction, given the current storm.

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I thought calling the minimum was premature back then, but it seems unlikely to be beaten now, as the Arctic sea ice extent has continued to slowly increase despite the storm.  It may have helped that the storm has a fair amount of cold air in its circulation.

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The melt season is over (thank God!). Time to start the refreeze thread :D

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3 minutes ago, karyo said:

The melt season is over (thank God!). Time to start the refreeze thread :D

 

 

freezegif.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Shocking that temperature table.  The Arctic hasn't had a really cold summer since at least 1996...  Their last really cold winter was at least back in 1996/1997.:(

Edited by Lettucing Gutted

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3 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

Shocking that temperature table.  The Arctic hasn't had a really cold summer since at least 1996...  Their last really cold winter was at least back in 1996/1997.:(

Warm anomolies are not unusual at this time of year(in modern times) as heat from the ocean gets released into the atmosphere before the ice can refreeze again and if the winds are blowing from open water over ice, then temps will be above normal.

Been a fairly high pressure dominated October so far and its acting as a buffer at the moment in respect of stopping low pressure systems from lower latitudes from fully entering the Arctic basin and it looks like we may see quite a strong reverse dipole which should in theory boost extent as new ice grows and spreads out, one to watch for sure.

As for summer, then this summer has been a cold and stormy one, problem is, when sea ice is so thin, too much stormy weather can also decrease sea ice but it makes you think if we had a summer like 2007/11 then I dread to think how much ice would of been left by now.

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5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Warm anomolies are not unusual at this time of year(in modern times) as heat from the ocean gets released into the atmosphere before the ice can refreeze again and if the winds are blowing from open water over ice, then temps will be above normal.

Been a fairly high pressure dominated October so far and its acting as a buffer at the moment in respect of stopping low pressure systems from lower latitudes from fully entering the Arctic basin and it looks like we may see quite a strong reverse dipole which should in theory boost extent as new ice grows and spreads out, one to watch for sure.

As for summer, then this summer has been a cold and stormy one, problem is, when sea ice is so thin, too much stormy weather can also decrease sea ice but it makes you think if we had a summer like 2007/11 then I dread to think how much ice would of been left by now.

GS..

Most of your analysis above is one I can identify with.

 But why would a 'cold and stormy' summer month not break up the ice, and hence make it more vulnerable to ice loss thru movement and melting? Some would be compacted I agree, but why would it actually show an 'improvement' - I am talking wrt to other years obviously.  

 The temperature was above freezing during the summer and salted ice melts at -1.8C. According to sea ice temperature graphs the surface was about 2 or 3C for quite a long period.

MIA.

 

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1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

GS..

Most of your analysis above is one I can identify with.

 But why would a 'cold and stormy' summer month not break up the ice, and hence make it more vulnerable to ice loss thru movement and melting? Some would be compacted I agree, but why would it actually show an 'improvement' - I am talking wrt to other years obviously.  

 The temperature was above freezing during the summer and salted ice melts at -1.8C. According to sea ice temperature graphs the surface was about 2 or 3C for quite a long period.

MIA.

 

The ice now and especially this summer was pretty thin so too many storms will just break and melt the ice quite quickly. Also on a more technical level, as far as I know, deep lows can lift warmer water deep down in ocean to the surface which can increase melting. I wonder if that is one cause for the high SSTS on the Pacific side of the basin?

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A very interesting read  which highlights the big impact  the melting of the Artic could have on Northern Europe and the Beaufort Gyre

http://e360.yale.edu/features/how-a-wayward-arctic-current-could-cool-the-climate-in-europe?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+YaleEnvironment3

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On 13/12/2017 at 15:23, weirpig said:

A very interesting read  which highlights the big impact  the melting of the Artic could have on Northern Europe and the Beaufort Gyre

http://e360.yale.edu/features/how-a-wayward-arctic-current-could-cool-the-climate-in-europe?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+YaleEnvironment3

Interesting and yet... highly contradictory to the points made by A-Team in this forum thread;

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2141.450

... which make a good amount of sense to me having followed developments closely these past few years.

This could mean that we’ve either already had the freshwater flush, or that it moved differently or even just stagnated in place and slowly modified (during occasional storm events mixing the layers at least a little) due to anomalous into-Arctic currents these past two years.

I must stress ‘could’ though; reliable measurement of the gyre is not as straightforward as I had once hoped it would be.

 

p.s about time we switched to a freezing season thread I should think? ;) 

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We had quite a big 'flush' over the 2012 GAC ( great Arctic Cyclone) with the freshwater lens in the gyre being dramatically reduced.

 

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