Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Gray-Wolf

Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2017 - The Melt Season

Posted (edited)

Well we appear to be passed max ice for the winter 2016/17 .NSIDC put this as occurring on March 7th and was the lowest ever recorded for that date.

To me this is a very important melt season yet seen with the potential to fall to the lowest ,across all measures, if we see any fine stretches of weather over the season.

2017 is also the earliest possible return for the 'perfect melt storm'......... we don't need one thanks very much!!!

Edited by reef
2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 27/03/2017 at 13:06, Gray-Wolf said:

Well we appear to be passed max ice for the winter 2016/17 .NSIDC put this as occurring on March 7th and was the lowest ever recorded for that date.

To me this is a very important melt season yet seen with the potential to fall to the lowest ,across all measures, if we see any fine stretches of weather over the season.

2017 is also the earliest possible return for the 'perfect melt storm'......... we don't need one thanks very much!!!

Are we seeing early fragmentation that's led to a small upward blip

We go into a new melt season with a poor ice pack

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could the mods close down the 'refreeze' thread as I'm sure we all agree we are into the Arctic Melt phase.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Continuing on from the discussion in the old thread...

Longer term you have to look at where any recovery might come from. The ENSO forecast suggests yet another moderate or strong El Nino this winter, so we could yet again be looking at a globe warmer than the long-term trend. That's more heat being transferred north when the ice is still suffering from the hit of the last 12 months.

I wonder if this current period will look like another step change downwards similar to around 2007?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think by the end of May we will have proper sight of the damage the past winter did to the growth/thickening of the ice. If we see open water above 75N by late May I reckon we are in trouble!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=arctic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2017-04-22&z=3&v=-2283008,-310784,-1583616,15872

Beaufort gyre has been spinning and you can see the damage to the ice there? I've been watching the ice in Lincoln break pff the ice arch at the start of nares and the ice quickly re=sizes back down to the small floes that we finished last melt season with? If the ice in the rest of Beaufort does this then we will see the degradation over the coming weeks as the floes we see in the above sat image break down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Update for the week to April 22nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,587,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,493,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -935,000km2, a decrease from -966,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -515,000km2, an increase from -445,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, down from lowest last week.

T7AfKY0.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -32.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -37.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -22.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -40.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -44.2k/day.

HW2AEwP.png

The extent loss so far this April is the 14th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 130.0k/day is required (more than -157.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest drop requires a loss of less than 14.4k/day (less than 3.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 65.7k/day (-71.9k/day with single day values).

FOmhzK1.png

 

11 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Update for the week to April 22nd

The current 5 day trailing average is on 13,587,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 13,493,000km2.

(All the following data is based on a trailing 5 day average)
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -935,000km2, a decrease from -966,000km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -515,000km2, an increase from -445,000km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, down from lowest last week.

T7AfKY0.png

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -32.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -37.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -22.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -40.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -44.2k/day.

HW2AEwP.png

The extent loss so far this April is the 14th smallest record. To achieve the largest loss, a drop of at least 130.0k/day is required (more than -157.4k/day with with single day values), while the smallest drop requires a loss of less than 14.4k/day (less than 3.5k/day with single day values) and an average loss requires a drop of 65.7k/day (-71.9k/day with single day values).

FOmhzK1.png

BFTV.  Thank you for the regular stats but I wonder is it possible to make comment about them from time to time. Might assist in my interpretation. Cold or not so cold figures does not entirely explain to me how things are moving in a negative or positive way. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Discussion, commentary etc is in this thread Snipper!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm sure we have plenty seasoned ice watcher that would be happy to try and answer any queries you have Snipper?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'm sure we have plenty seasoned ice watcher that would be happy to try and answer any queries you have Snipper?

Thanks. Just suggesting a paragraph of conclusion should be added where mainly hard data is posted. This would go nicely with the comments yourself and others make and might bring about more discussion. Just a thought. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2017-4-25 at 10:58, Snipper said:

Thanks. Just suggesting a paragraph of conclusion should be added where mainly hard data is posted. This would go nicely with the comments yourself and others make and might bring about more discussion. Just a thought. 

There is a thread where BFTV kindly provides weekly updates and this thread for 'discussions'. Obviously were comparing apples and pears and when  one mentions extent losses being average in April so far it can be misleading as your including the 1980s when it was 1.500.000 higher at this time of year, Areas melting now wouldn't have been melting out until 3/4 weeks time in 1980s. Melt losses then were probably going on at much higher latitudes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we over lay the 'average' volume drop over melt season in the 80's on today's volume measure you'll see that we have a problem!

to me there must come a point that means total melt out? Once we are ice free we will start to see that if we have 'X' amount of ice by mid July the open water will take it no matter the weather and we are now starting to move into that position. If we see a strong start to this melt season it could get very interesting by mid Aug this year!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.