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Nick F

Virtual Chasing Thread - Spring 2017

70 posts in this topic

quite a few chasers about, although not many live yet. 

today and tommorow could see some quite inclement conditions in the same area, flooding quite a risk tommorow.

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The SPC have issued a tornado watch so things are warming up nicely :-)

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First one live on YT i've found so far..

 

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Posted (edited)

An enhanced risk today in the Oklahoma area. My target today would be Bristow, some nice wind direction change with height plus the HRR shows individual cells developing from around 18z. The road network isn't bad either with good south/east options. could be an interesting night ahead. Next Friday is looking pretty insane at the moment! In fact, i'd be racing south NOW!

Edited by bristolstormchaser
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Yes a very active severe pattern coming up with amazing model agreement across the board. The period from April 26th to May 3rd or 4th looks like back to back days of severe and I can already see some high end risk days with all hazards of severe weather across the Southern and Central Plains, Tornadoes, Large Hail and damaging winds look very likely.

Longer range models settle it down from around the 4th onwards 

 

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Posted (edited)

There was a nice t-warned cell just East of Durant earlier

 a nice mothership type cloud

Untitled.thumb.png.60e9b70bcccb287d3c170fd9ac68e6c9.png

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Posted (edited)

Here comes the first of quite a few days with lots of potential.

From NOAA..

 

SPC AC 251626 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes are expected to develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, northwest Arkansas, and western Missouri this evening into overnight hours. ...OK/KS/MO... The morning surface analysis shows relatively strong southerly low-level winds over east TX/OK, helping to transport 60s dewpoints northward today. While 12Z model solutions are likely too moist, it appears that mid 60s dewpoints will advect/develop into eastern OK, and lower 60s dewpoints into western MO and southeast KS by 00Z. A fast-moving shortwave trough now over eastern NM is expected to begin affecting OK/KS by late this afternoon (21-00Z), resulting in scattered thunderstorm development along a weak surface boundary. Forecast soundings around the time of initial development would support relatively high-based supercells and/or bowing segments capable of large hail and damaging winds. This activity will likely spread east-northeastward into western MO this evening with a continued severe threat. The continued influx of low-level moisture will help to further destabilize parts of eastern OK and southeast KS as storms build slowly southward along the boundary. Most CAM solutions suggest that an increasing capping inversion will limit how far south storms can form. However, the southern-most storm/s will be in an area of large CAPE, strengthening low-level shear profiles, and lower LCL heights this evening. They could be intense with a risk of very large hail and isolated tornadoes in the 00-04Z time period.

Edited by matty40s

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It seems strange that such a warned setup has virtually no chasers live ( the only one I have found , Ange, seems to hop from shopping mall to shopping ,mall).

Is the setup too messy, or has the forecast changed from expected??

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Plenty of potential today with some big temperature differences. Quite a lot of chasers showing as out and about.

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Yes, quite a big day out there. The most tornado warnings we have seen for a while.

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I missed the opportunity to view the live storm chasers last night as i had friends down but managed to get this clip courtesy of Reed timmer:)

 

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Posted (edited)

Brian Davidson is at the sceen ATM just outside of Canton TX and that is a sad sight to see,i hope there was no fatalities

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

Edit:just seen some news and five people died :(

http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Tornadoes-Leave-Trail-of-Damage-in-Van-Zandt-County-420827173.html

Edited by Allseasons-si

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33 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Brian Davidson is at the sceen ATM just outside of Canton TX and that is a sad sight to see,i hope there was no fatalities

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

Edit:just seen some news and five people died :(

http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Tornadoes-Leave-Trail-of-Damage-in-Van-Zandt-County-420827173.html

Yep terrible news i was watching Michael Phelps stream as things where unfolding was a very dangerous situation, looking at today SPC have upgraded parts of Southern Mississippi south west Alabama and far North East Louisiana to Enhanced with a 10% Tornado warning

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Enhanced warning has now been removed 

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Some easing of the active pattern going into this week with more robust moisture returning into week two of May but too early to be specific for Tour 1. The period 5th to 9th May looks quite ridgy so I'm glad I've gone for the late May option again this year.

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Yep we look to be lucky again it seems with it ramping up just in time for Tour 1 - Phew

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This afternoon might be one of those 'everything clicks' events for LA and west MS. Should an MCS develop midday and move east above a returning moisture stream, the OFB will trigger substantial convection in the rich environment close to the gulf coast. I would certainly make the trip across from TX if I was on my tour today.

I suspect upgrades in outlook will be considered

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Interestingly another potential set up which failed to produce. This seems to be a theme this year.

So we go into a week now of an amplified pattern with a ridge of death over the central conus. Later on the moisture will return a troughing emerges from the desert so I see activity increasing from around the 10th May.

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This seems like a late season setup. Some good stuff coming down from the mountains today.

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