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Nick F

Virtual Chasing Thread - Spring 2017

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Thought I'd start a new thread for those who want to follow/post about severe storms and the live streaming of it across Tornado Alley over the coming weeks.

The next few days are looking quite active as a few upper troughs move east across the CONUS. Lee cyclones develop over the central/south Plains as upper trough emerges from the mountain west, drawing moisture north over the Plains which destabilizes as the upper trough moves east. The severe risk then shifting east of the Mississippi with the trough the next day, then another trough arrives from the SW U.S. and the cycle repeats.

SPC ENHANCED risk today for Oklahoma and N central Texas, lee low over W Oklahoma later with dry line extending south into NW/W Texas.

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Cold front further west eventually overtakes the dryline and marches east with the surface low to be over eastern Oklahoma around midnight local time.

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Supercells forecast to develop along dry line and in warm sector or towards low triple point. Uncertainties / concerns over quality of moisture return north across TX and OK for tornado potential. Dryline supercells could be high-based due to high temp to dewpoint spread, may have to follow dryline storms until moisture improves from the south and the temp-dew point spred falls, bases of any storms developing towards low centre moving over W to central Oklahoma around peak heating perhaps lower - where cloud bases / temp-dew point spread lower.

Nonetheless, any storms could have very large hail. Looking at models, HRRR breaks out storms around 22z just west of I-35 corridor, GFS and NAM similarly breaks storms out along I-35 corridor by 00z.

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Think I would target just west of the I-35 to the south of Oklahoma City and see what happens along the dryline, maybe shoot northwest if storms look better near low centre and triple point.

A slight risk over lower Ohio Valley + Lower to mid Mississippi valley on Monday, not such great terrain for chasing with hills and forests and limited  river crossings, but perhaps worth watching the streams

Back west to western Texas on Tuesday for an already ENHANCED risk, so could be a big severe day to follow.

day3otlk_0730.thumb.gif.3c535b9eae93190a84ff5453cb5189f2.gif

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Where do you get the frontal analysis charts from, Nick?

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A series of impulses and quite a 'late Spring' feel about the pattern. Hopefully it isn't using up all the potential before May.

Tues looks fairly high end compared to tonight just going by richer moisture return. Mind you high based discrete supercells can be visually stunning.

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2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Where do you get the frontal analysis charts from, Nick?

Here: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=frt

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Posted (edited)

And a 10% tornado risk

day1probotlk_1300_torn.thumb.gif.b47197563665bbb9f6a0eec261ace3a5.gif

Deffo be virtual chasing this tonight - even though I have to be up early for work in the morning, can't miss a Moderate Risk and 10% tornado prob. over Tornado Alley

Virtual target: Ardmore, OK

Edited by Nick F
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So the very late spring like pattern continues into April looking at the medium term models.

Sat/Sun could be quite big central plains.

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Hi Neil

Am intrigued why you think it is a Late Spring pattern which is ongoing at the moment, to me it looks like a typical early spring pattern with Texas and Oklahoma being affected and then subsequent days in the Arklatex, even tomorrow looks like similar areas to Sunday and again on into the Weekend, the pattern certainly is nowhere near shifting to the High and Central Plains anytime soon,can you shed some thoughts on why you think it is a late spring pattern ? Would like to hear your thinking on this, is it an expected Enso phase you are looking at/expecting for instance

Cheers

Paul

 

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So today is looking pretty good for severe storms and possible tornadoes with greater moisture in place than on Sunday. SPC have a 10% tornado risk forecast which isn't bad. As for initial targets for today, mine would be Childress. May be a bit too far northeast so would use the Highway To Heaven the 287!

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Virtual chasing from my armchair, would pick a target between Abilene and Childress for a target today. Surface analysis indicates triple point and warm front moving up through this area which be best area for enhanced low-level shear and lift

94fndfd_init_2017032800.thumb.gif.4d8e9728450de28cf4ebaea6acbc569e.gif

Think today will be more productive for tornadoes than Sunday with better quality moisture. 

 

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Posted (edited)

I'm currently sat in Seymour, (figuratively speaking) at the Crossroads, a major road in every direction at the moment..

Edited by Dorsetbred

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East of Lubbock seems to be the place to be at the mo..

 

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Posted (edited)

Thanks for the latest info guys:)

are you still in Seymour Dorsetbred?,you look like being in a good spot.

some links

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=lbb&loop=yes

Edit:T-warning now on the east Lubbock cell,Charles peek is on it.

https://livestormchasing.com/map

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Posted (edited)

Interesting the action is to the east at the moment. Colder air is digging in to Colorado & New Mexico, and the line of activity is really winding up. Was watching Charles Peek on stream recently and the rainfall was amazing. Action is currently to the west of Seymour,, .

And so the line marches Northeastwards..

I use this site, shows, the various overlays, and local warnings, + SPC overlay.. https://livestormchasing.com/map

 

Edited by Dorsetbred

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Checking Ryan Hearne's feed and some nice wall cloud

Untitled.thumb.png.1c1927d4146e746181fc5e67e909c39e.png58dace7b912f6_Untitled1.thumb.png.741484a2438be508b86827ecc92a728d.png

 

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Supercell SW of Abilene looks most interesting at the moment, as it's discrete still ahead of the squall a little further west.

Live coverage from Abilene local news KTXS http://www.ktxs.com/news/live-stream

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7 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Unfortunately i'm hearing about fatalities among some storm-chasers in TX tonight. 

Derrick Ginter on severestudio's was one of the first at the scene.

http://www.everythinglubbock.com/news/local-news/dps-and-dickens-co-officials-called-to-report-of-deadly-crash/682015058

I'm hearing they were not impacted by the weather. Possible lack of concentration at a cross roads.

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It was Kelly Williamson and his chase buddy Randy Yarnall and Corbin Jaeger.

I was a fan of the first two, had watched a couple of live streams of theirs on YouTube. 

Terribly sad for the family and friends and the Chasing community. 

A stark reminder of the dangers not just from the storms. 

Rest in Peace

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Yes this is a tragic accident. Luckily his Youtube stream broke up as the crash occurred but you can see him blowing towards the junction which has the stop sign. Sadly not wearing a seatbelt didn't help. Will miss his chasing!

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15 minutes ago, RobR said:

Yes this is a tragic accident. Luckily his Youtube stream broke up as the crash occurred but you can see him blowing towards the junction which has the stop sign. Sadly not wearing a seatbelt didn't help. Will miss his chasing!

I would have been watching but was at work for 530 this morning.

A great loss but an avoidable one. Many reports speak of a failure to stop.

Again ,thoughts to family and friends 

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I'm very saddened by this news. Have watched Kelley and Randy's streams on many occasions and enjoyed their Missouri-style take on things. And they chased everything, sometimes being the only crew on the road. 

In equally saddened by some of the comments I've seen about it. Accidents caused by lack of concentration can occur at any time and on any road and it's something anyone getting behind a wheel would do well to remember. 

My thoughts go out to the families of Kelley, Randy and the young man Corbin who was also a chaser. Chase on in heaven guys.

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