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April 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Like others have said, I'm staggered that we can have winds from a northerly direction for 3/4 of the month and still be well above average. But I feel I say something similar a lot of months. Has Theresa May installed undersoil heating throughout the country??

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

9.1 to the 27th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________________

Current high this month 10.0 to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

La'al bit of downward correction and I might be within half a degree!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield just outside the CET zone now down to 8.5C +0.1C above average.

The break down goes 9.1C, 9.6C, 7.8C and  7.4C interesting drop from mid month.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
20 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Like others have said, I'm staggered that we can have winds from a northerly direction for 3/4 of the month and still be well above average. But I feel I say something similar a lot of months. Has Theresa May installed undersoil heating throughout the country??

Depends where the winds come from the other 26 days. Certainly been a cold end to April. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

9.1 to the 28th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________________

Current high this month 10.0 to the 4th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield just outside the CET zone at 8.5C may finish on 8.6C which is basically close to average. Rainfall though way down at 24.5% of average. It's interesting how the 2nd part of the month basically cancelled out the first part.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Very likely to finish about 9.2C before corrections. The GFS continues to underestimate both the maximum and minimum by several degrees.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Pretty sure we'll hit 8.6C for the final figure here unless we have a real warm day tomorrow which isn't likely.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
On ‎23‎/‎04‎/‎2017 at 11:44, DAVID SNOW said:

CET Likely to finish at around 9.1.

Perhaps with only a small downward correction.

Pretty pleased with this forecast from 6 days ago, lets see how the corrections go.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 9.6°C here, has hardly dropped at all since the middle of the month as I thought. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
12 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 9.6°C here, has hardly dropped at all since the middle of the month as I thought. 

We have managed to drop a degree since mid month, so the cold snap didn't have too much of an impact.

The monthly mean max is currently at 14.0c which is 2.6c above average, whereas the mean min is currently at 3.7c which is 0.3c below average.

Unfortunately I don't have any sunshine stats for this month but its very likely the reason we are above average this month is due to high sunshine levels that has resulted in well above average maximum temps, especially earlier in April.

Still 8.8c here to the 29th, 1.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

Possibility with a mild night due tonight we finish the month on 8.9c.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Into the high teens again today as yesterday so I may finish the month on 9.8 here 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

April here finished on the following. 

 

Lowest temp - 1.8°C - 25th&26th. 
Mean min - 6.7°C - +1.6. 
Mean max - 13.2°C - +1.0. 
Highest diurnal range - 18.1°C - 8th. 
Highest temp - 20.7°C - 8th. 
Coldest day mean - 6.0°C - 26th. 
Warmest day mean - 13.5°C - 30th. 
Month mean - 9.8°C - +1.0. 
Double figure days - 29. 
Max above 15°C - 5. 
Max above 20°C - 1. 
Double figure nights - 1. 
Min below 5°C - 5. 
Air frosts - 0. 

Rainfall - 8.0 mm - 14.7%. 
Rain days (>=1 mm) - 4 - 38.4%. 


*1981-2010 averages for Crosby
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/gctb66ydw

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 hours ago, Summer 1976 said:

I see 8.9 is the final after corrections:good: Just above the March CET

Another warmer than average month in 2017 although not as anomalously warm as February and March.  Remarkably dry for many mind.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Here in Edmonton Canada April finished on +2.5c ..which is 3c below normal..mainly due to low daytime maximum..was a dull month sunshine well below normal...snow fell on 15 days.

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

A 0.36C downward correction, so a relatively big one.

The 9th saw an upward correction from 13.3C to 13.7C, which makes it the warmest April 9th on record by 0.2C. No other days made it into their respective top or bottom 5.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Using the confirmed values, I edited in the relevant information for 2017 into two earlier posts about March-April changes and cold spells late in the month.

It turns out that 2017 had a smaller increase than all but 17 of the 359 years in the CET record, March to April, where there were 16 years that had a colder or equal value and one that increased by only 0.1 C, so 2017 is tied with four other years at +0.2 in 18th place in that regard. The cold spell came close to being in the coldest ten for three-day means 25th-27th (mean 5.0 C), and the coldest day was the 25th, 4.5.

It appears that most recent (1987-2016) 30-year normal (8.8) and 1981-2010 normal (8.5) moved up in the scoring ranks while consensus (9.8) will probably stay around the same as in the March update. I will post a table of these scores when we have the official results. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

Finished on 8.9c here, which is the same as the CET.

1.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I was just checking the April table of entries, can report that one forecaster, weather-history was "spot on" for April and three were 0.1 C out -- CongletonHeat and Midlands Ice Age with 8.8 C and Thundery Wintry Showers at 9.0 C. Next closest were Mapantz, Stargazer and Singularity all at 9.1 C (nobody took 8.7 C).

In terms of our three non-human contestants (that we know about, anyway) these are updated positions for them, points are now confirmed from J10's scoring tables. 

APRIL 2017

FORECASTER ____ Fcst __ Error __ Points (rank)

Normal 1981-2010 __ 8.5 ___ -0.4 ___ 86.8 (9th)

Normal 1987-2016 __ 8.8 ___ -0.1 ___ 98.4 (2nd)

Consensus ________ 9.8 ___ +0.9 ___ 57.1 (27th)

(previous stats below)

_________________ DEC 2016 ________  JAN 2017 ________  FEB 2017 _______ MAR 2017

FORECASTER ____ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk)

Normal 1981-2010 __4.6_-1.4_79.6 (21) __4.4_+0.4_69.9 (29) __4.4_-1.7_56.1 (36) __ 6.6_-2.1_59.0 (30)

Normal 1987-2016 __5.0_-1.0_89.8 (11) __ 4.6_+0.6_58.0 (40) __ 4.8_-1.3_67.4 (27) __ 6.7_-2.0_61.8 (28)

Consensus (median)_3.9_-2.1_50.0 (50)__ 3.9 _--0.1_95.7 (5) __ 4.3 _-1.8_52.4 (39) __ 6.5_-2.2_56.2 (32)

As explained earlier, ranks are equal to the first actual forecast submitted of equal error, in April this happened to be the same value for 1987-2016 (8.8) and consensus (median 9.8) but the mirror image for 1981-2010 (9.3, as nobody predicted 8.5). Anyway, the rankings for the annual contest and seasonal (which will be identical as my assumption is to compare only against people who enter all months) are derived from the posted tables. Bear in mind also that these three have a slight advantage by getting their points from earliest entrant, for example there were six entrants at 9.8 and the point spread among them (based on time of entry) would be about 10 given there are 61 entries in total.

 

The average errors for these three and ranks will be edited in later (the totals and averages are updated from March, the ranks are determined by comparing to tables in J10's recently released scoring tables.

FORECASTER ________ TOTAL POINTS __ Rank ______ Average abs error __ Rank

1981-2010 normal _________ 351.4 ________ 6th ___________ 1.20 ________ 10th

last 30 years average ______ 375.4 ________ 3rd ____________1.00 _________ 4th

Consensus (median) _______ 311.4 ________13th ___________1.42_________ 21st

Once again, these are only relative to those who entered all five months, two entries with four months have more points than lowest ranked consensus so with that noted the rank changes to 15th. There are quite a few partial entries with lower average errors so if you check the table you'll see that this is only a comparison against those who have played all months.

Our group skill is still lagging behind the random index values of recent normals.

Only the top three are now outperforming the average of the most recent 30 years (which is 1987-2016 but was 1986-2015 for December). 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Monthly figures confirmed at 8.9c

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

I was just checking the April table of entries, can report that one forecaster, weather-history was "spot on" for April and three were 0.1 C out -- CongletonHeat and Midlands Ice Age with 8.8 C and Thundery Wintry Showers at 9.0 C. Next closest were Mapantz, Stargazer and Singularity all at 9.1 C (nobody took 8.7 C).

 
1

All of the above is spot on.

Seasonal Scores -

1. I remember Atlantic 252 and DAVID SNOW both on 475 points.
3. Stargazer on 470 points.

Annual Scores - (Last Month in Brackets)

1 (2) I remember Atlantic 252
2 (1) davehsug
3 (3) reef

Interesting this month that the average guess was 9.9c some 1.0c above the final 8.9c figure.

There was also a pattern that the later entries did slightly better than earlier ones.

April 2017 CET.pdf

April 2017 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Phew! I needed a few points to get me back up the board a bit, as some of my previous months were way off of the mark. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Phew! I needed a few points to get me back up the board a bit, as some of my previous months were way off of the mark. :D

I'm probably being really thick asking this but is there an actual board/league table of how we're doing anywhere I can bookmark? 

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