April 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[The PIT]

Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

is Sheffield in the CET zone?

Nope just outside.

[cheeky_monkey]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Nope just outside.

Exactly

[Gael_Force]

What a strange, unwelcoming place this site has become. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Exactly

always sunny too, by the posts? and as you say not even in CET zone

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i'm reporting on my area like others do...so CET = Central Edmonton Temperature

Come on CM, there is an area dedicated for North American weather chat. You know full well that this is the Central England Temperature thread.

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

Come on CM, there is an area dedicated for North American weather chat. You know full well that this is the Central England Temperature thread.

and there are dedicated regional weather chat..but it doesn't stop others popping in their on going IMBY temperatures in this thread....

[Optimus Prime]

16 hours ago, The PIT said:

Okay we are in a time warp here we are in 2017 so why are bothered about 2015????

Seems relevant since the topics about CET? And I'm talking about April's CET....

[Summer Sun]

9.6 to the 17th

2.4 above the 61 to 90 average

1.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________________

Current high this month 10.0 to the 4th

Edited April 19, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Chris.R]

 9.7°C (+0.9) here. 

Mean min: 6.8°C (+1.7).

Mean Max: 13.3°C (+1.1). 

 Just 4.7 mm of rainfall this month, with 2 rain days (>=1 mm). 

Edited April 18, 2017 by Chris.R

[The PIT]

7 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:

 

Sunny Sheffield just a few miles outside the CET zone not a few thousand miles has now dropped to 9C. Rainfall  now up to massive 4.8mm

[Roger J Smith]

Years when April CET was lower than, or equal to March CET (and what happened in May to October)

(since 1701 as there were no cases in the 17th century) -- presented in chronological order this time

YEAR ___ MARCH __ APRIL __ (diff) ___ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG __ SEP __ OCT

1702 _____ 5.8 _____ 5.8 _____ 0.0 ____ 10.6 __ 13.3 __ 15.0 __ 16.1 __ 14.4 __ 10.0

1750 _____ 8.2 _____ 7.7 _____ 0.5 ____ 10.7 __ 14.2 __ 17.2 __ 15.0 __ 15.2 ___ 9.2

1780 _____ 7.9 _____ 6.3 _____ 1.6 ____ 12.8 __ 14.2 __ 16.8 __ 17.6 __ 15.6 ___ 9.1

1790 _____ 6.4 _____ 6.1 _____ 0.3 ____ 11.9 __ 14.6 __ 14.9 __ 15.6 __ 12.2 __ 10.3

1809 _____ 6.0 _____ 5.2 _____ 0.8 ____ 13.1 __ 13.7 __ 15.1 __ 14.8 __ 12.7 __ 10.2

1903 _____ 7.1 _____ 6.3 _____ 0.8 ____ 11.1 __ 13.0 __ 15.3 __ 14.3 __ 13.1 __ 10.5

1936 _____ 7.1 _____ 6.3 _____ 0.8 ____ 11.5 __ 14.7 __ 15.3 __ 16.1 __ 14.4 ___ 9.4

1938 _____ 9.1 _____ 7.6 _____ 1.5 ____ 10.7 __ 14.4 __ 15.2 __ 16.3 __ 13.8 __ 10.5

1957 _____ 9.2 _____ 8.9 _____ 0.3 ____ 10.3 __ 15.2 __ 16.3 __ 15.4 __ 12.5 __ 10.8

1978 _____ 6.7 _____ 6.5 _____ 0.2 ____ 11.7 __ 13.7 __ 14.8 __ 15.0 __ 14.2 __ 11.9

1981 _____ 7.9 _____ 7.8 _____ 0.1 ____ 11.2 __ 13.2 __ 15.5 __ 16.2 __ 14.5 ___ 8.6

1989 _____ 7.5 _____ 6.6 _____ 0.9 ____ 13.0 __ 14.6 __ 18.2 __ 16.6 __ 14.7 __ 11.7

1990 _____ 8.3 _____ 8.0 _____ 0.3 ____ 12.6 __ 13.6 __ 16.9 __ 18.0 __ 13.2 __ 11.9

1991 _____ 7.9 _____ 7.9 _____ 0.0 ____ 10.8 __ 12.1 __ 17.3 __ 17.1 __ 14.7 __ 10.2

1998 _____ 7.9 _____ 7.7 _____ 0.2 ____ 13.1 __ 14.2 __ 15.5 __ 15.9 __ 14.9 __ 10.6

2012 _____ 8.3 _____ 7.2 _____ 1.1 ____ 11.7 __ 13.5 __ 15.5 __ 16.6 __ 13.0 ___ 9.7

avg values _ 7.5 _____6.9 _____ 0.6 ____ 11.7 __ 13.9 __ 16.0 __ 16.0 __ 13.9 __ 10.3

Notice that the frequency of this phenomenon has increased steadily since 1978; there were no cases 1659-1701 nor 1810-1902, but seven in the past 39 opportunities which may increase to eight of forty this year.

Of these sixteen cases, about half are top ten March outcomes, the only really warm March missing from this list would be 1997 which managed a warmer April (8.4 to 9.0). The trend from May to October looks generally unremarkable on average although there seems to be a bit of a warm anomaly in May and September, and cool in October. At least there is a fairly good sampling of warm summers in this mixture.

To round out the top 25 (edit now 26) with cases where the expected warming was only 0.1 to 0.4, we find these additions.

0.1 warmer ... 1743 (Mar 5.3, Apr 5.4), 

0.2 warmer ... 1859 (Mar 7.3, Apr 7.5) __ 1950 (Mar 7.4, Apr 7.6) __ 2000 (7.6 to 7.8)

... ... ... ... ... ... (edit) 2017 (Mar 8.7, Apr 8.9)

0.3 warmer ... 1841 (Mar 7.5, Apr 7.8) __ 1849 (Mar 6.1, Apr 6.4) __ 1977 (6.9 to 7.2)

0.4 warmer ... 1983 (Mar 6.4, Apr 6.8) __ 1994 (Mar 7.7, Apr 8.1)

 

Adding these close calls brings the modern frequency to 12 out of 41 in the period 1977 to 2017 while it's only 14 out of 318 from 1659 to 1976 (albeit two rounded off cases of 0.5 in the late 17th century, 1677 and 1680, which could have been in this list with more precise values).

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2017 by Roger J Smith
2017 added to list

[Roger J Smith]

With reference to the above tables, the real peak seems to have occurred between 1977 and 2000, the frequency has backed off to a more normal pace since then. In that 24-year interval, the mean temperature of March was 6.5, and April 8.1, even so almost half the years managed to get colder or at least not much warmer. But the average from 2001 to 2016 was 6.4 and 9.0 with just the one case in 2012. 

If you assume that one of 1677 and 1680 belong in the group and take 1677, the intervals between the top 26 (as it becomes) would be 25, 41, 9, 30, 10, 19, 32, 8, 10, 44, 33, 2, 12, 7, 20, 1, 3, 2, 6, 1, 1, 3, 4, 2, and 12 years. Arranged as a proportionately separated series this looks as follows (with the actual years)

__1677__1702_____43_50____80_90__1809___41_49_59_____1903____3638__50_57__77881839014800_201217?

Edited April 18, 2017 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

9.4 to the 18th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________________

Current high this month 10.0 to the 4th

[NorthYorksWeather]

9.1c here to the 18th, 1.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

May rise slightly over the next few days but next week looks bloomin chilly if the models are correct.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.9C. Latest GFS shows it staying mild until Sunday so we should end up back around 9.4C possibly end of Saturday

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 3.6C, while maxima were around 12C, so 9.3 or 9.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

9.4C to the 20th (10.0: +1.6)
9.4C to the 21st (10.5: +1.3)
9.4C to the 22nd (9.7: +0.3)
9.4C to the 23rd (8.9: -0.8)
9.3C to the 24th (7.4: -2.3)
9.1C to the 25th (3.9: -6.2)
8.9C to the 26th (3.1: -7.0) [Record Low: 3.3C]
8.7C to the 27th (2.9: -7.2) [Record Low: 2.7C]
8.5C to the 28th (4.9: -5.0)

A rare shot at setting some record low averages if the the cold spell comes off as forecast.

[Summer Sun]

9.4 to the 19th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________________

Current high this month 10.0 to the 4th

[reef]

Its certainly looking like the second half of the month will be much cooler than the first. As the first half was 9.7C (provisionally), I wonder if we could be in contention for the coldest second half relative to the first on record. It could easily be more than 2C colder and as Kevin mentions, colder than March too.

[damianslaw]

Quite likely April will end up colder than March. 2012 was the last time I think this happened. A finish somewhere in the 8's most likely, probability higher 8's than lower 8's I suspect, the colder spell looks quite shortlived with a slight warm up next weekend.

[BornFromTheVoid]

3 hours ago, reef said:

Its certainly looking like the second half of the month will be much cooler than the first. As the first half was 9.7C (provisionally), I wonder if we could be in contention for the coldest second half relative to the first on record. It could easily be more than 2C colder and as Kevin mentions, colder than March too.

Using values taken from yesterdays 12z GFS, my guess would be for a first half of 9.7C and second of 7.6C, so a drop of 2.1C. This, surprisingly, would only be 16th largest drop on record - beaten most recently by 1995 that dropped 2.2C (10.2C and 8.0C each half).
The largest drop from first to second half is from 1778, a first half of 10.2C and second of 6.1C, giving a drop of 4.1C.
 

[Summer Sun]

9.4 to the 20th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________________

Current high this month 10.0 to the 4th

[The PIT]

Sunny old Sheffield just on the edge of the CET zone is now bouncing along at 8.9C +0.5C above normal.

The splits are first seven days 9.1C 2nd seven 9.6C 3rd split 7.8C

Can't see the average moving very much from now to Monday here the CET does get a few more milder days than us.

Rainfall monsoon conditions have brought us up to 6.2mm for the month.

 

[Summer Sun]

9.5 to the 21st

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________________

Current high this month 10.0 to the 4th

[snowray]

Up we go, was expecting a rise due to the very high temps that were recorded on Thursday night, yesterday was pretty mild too. Probably hold now at 9.5c until Monday, then we will see it drop but its hard to say by how much at this stage, the frosts should make a significant difference though.  

[Chris.R]

 Still up at 10.0°C here, expect to finish the month no lower than 9°C.