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April 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

Roger J Smith
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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I'll quickly adjust my own guess down to 10.9C...

So that's one original guess followed by two adjustments, I think your setting a new record here Pete.:D

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
13 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

So that's one original guess followed by two adjustments, I think your setting a new record here Pete.:D

You're right. I'm losing it!:drunk-emoji:

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

I have to wonder why this thread refers to these numbers as 'forecasts' :laugh: but whatever - I'll go for a not particularly exciting 9.1*C please. Given this year's treatment of my estimates so far, just watch it end up in the 11s despite (or maybe somehow by modifying and exploiting?) the HLB signal that has emerged for the mid-range :shok::crazy:

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Godber 1 Contributor

Godber 1

Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
Posted

9.6c for me please.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

 Can't do worse than I have been doing so i'm going to go the opposite way and say 11.1°C please. 

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Just a stab in the dark this time from me, I think I might try colder.

7.9c please.

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Right at the deadline, 56 entries, median value 9.8 C (also the most popular choice).

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=7

The guesses are almost all above 1981-2010 normal, these are not yet taken ...

14.0 and 11.9 are the highest forecasts

11.8, 11.7, 11.5, 11.4, 11.3 not taken

9.0, 8.7, 8.6 and 8.5, not taken

8.2, 8.1, 8.0, not taken

7.9 is the lowest forecast. 

(of course you don't have to use these and the absolute deadline is three days from now at the end of 3rd of April, with time penalties increasing each day ... will be adding new forecasts and adjusting this post as we go). 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

 Can I change mine to 10.8°C please? 

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

9.0C

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

dammit late. No CET analysis done!    11.2C stab in the dark for me please

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March Enthusiast

March

Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
Posted

9.9C.

Late oops.

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted
5 hours ago, J10 said:

10.0c

Looking at the figures, is this the month with the CET estimates being the highest above average.

I looked back and it probably will be so, in September 2016 when the median forecast was 15.0 and that was 1.0 above 1981-2010 normal, with only four entrants going below normal; in December 2015 with a larger turnout the median was 5.8, 1.2 above the normal value but 18 entries went below normal (talk about optimism). :)

There were some other months where I noticed a general trend to warmth, sometimes it wasn't that justified by results. 

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

9.3c here after the 1st, 1.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

9.7°C (+0.9), here. 

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

April CET extremes and 1981-2010 averages

DATE ___ MAX yr _________ MIN yr ___________ CET _____ CET (cum to date)

01 Apr ... 13.3 (1995) ........ -0.2 (1917) __________ 8.3 _______ 8.3
02 Apr ... 13.9 (1835) ........ -0.5 (1917) __________ 8.1 _______ 8.2

03 Apr ... 15.0 (1926,1946) .... -0.5 (1799) _______ 7.4 _______ 7.9
04 Apr ... 15.6 (1946)......... 1.0 (1809&1830) _____ 7.1 _______ 7.7
05 Apr ... 13.3 (1857) ......... 0.4 (1911) __________ 7.1 _______ 7.6

06 Apr ... 15.1 (2011) ......... 0.8 (1911) __________ 7.5 _______ 7.6
07 Apr ... 14.7 (1859) ......... 1.0 (1839) __________ 7.3 _______ 7.5
08 Apr ... 12.5 (1798) ......... 2.4 (1780) __________ 7.2 _______ 7.5
09 Apr ... 13.5 (1778) ......... 1.4 (1812) __________ 7.5 _______ 7.5
10 Apr ... 13.5 (1928) ......... 0.5 (1837) __________ 8.2 _______ 7.6

11 Apr ... 16.0 (1869) ......... 1.3 (1978) __________ 8.0 _______ 7.6

12 Apr ... 14.4 (1939) ......... 1.1 (1879) __________ 7.8 _______ 7.6
13 Apr ... 14.6 (1792) ......... 1.1 (1816) __________ 7.5 _______ 7.6
14 Apr ... 16.1 (1869) ......... 0.5 (1966) __________ 8.0 _______ 7.7
15 Apr ... 16.3 (1945) ......... 1.4 (1966) __________ 8.3 _______ 7.7

16 Apr ... 17.0 (1945) ......... 2.0 (1892) __________ 8.5 _______ 7.7
17 Apr ... 14.9 (1865) ......... 2.1 (1793&1812) _____ 8.4 _______ 7.8
18 Apr ... 14.5 (1945) ......... 1.7 (1807) __________ 8.1 _______ 7.8
19 Apr ... 15.4 (1870) ......... -0.2 (1772) __________8.1 _______ 7.8
20 Apr ... 16.6 (1893) ......... 2.3 (1849) __________ 8.4 _______ 7.8

21 Apr ... 16.4 (1893) ......... 2.4 (1936) __________ 9.2 _______ 7.9
22 Apr ... 15.4 (2011) ......... 3.4 (1778) __________ 9.4 _______ 8.0
23 Apr ... 15.9 (1874) ......... 2.6 (1908) __________ 9.7 _______ 8.1
24 Apr ... 15.3 (2007) ......... 0.5 (1908) __________ 9.7 _______ 8.1
25 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 1.8 (1908) _________ 10.1 _______ 8.2

26 Apr ... 16.1 (1928) ......... 3.3 (1981) _________ 10.1 _______ 8.3
27 Apr ... 16.5 (1866) ......... 2.7 (1919) _________ 10.1 _______ 8.3
28 Apr ... 16.9 (1775) ......... 3.0 (1826) __________ 9.9 _______ 8.4
29 Apr ... 19.7 (1775) ......... 0.7 (1856) __________ 9.9 _______ 8.4
30 Apr ... 17.4 (1775) ......... 2.6 (1945) _________ 10.5 _______ 8.5

Note: only 12 days between record high (18th) and low (30th) in 1945.

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NorthYorksWeather Experienced

NorthYorksWeather

Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
Posted

10.3c here to the 3rd, 2.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

Can't remember the last below average day here :O

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