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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

Posted Images

9 hours ago, Summer 1976 said:

If this high can just keep its foot in to the east things could get very warm again but I realise this could be asking a little too much

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12 hours later still all to play for-

 

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Looks like after midweek things are going to go downhill as low pressure starts to take over.

More annoyingly it looks like polar heights are set to rise again. From this:

ECH1-0.GIF?26-12 

To this:

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Which will probably mean cooler and unsettled for a time.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

The
MetO fancy this unsettled spell in their long ranger too, wit things perhaps settling down towards mid month.

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On 24/05/2017 at 06:59, SizzlingHeat said:

Yet, I was the one being slated for negativity yesterday. However, as I mentioned in previous posts, was just being realistic. 30 celcius was out of the equation as early as Monday. All models now in agreement for the breakdown Saturday which is a huge shame considering the charts were so fantastic recently. Looks warm in the south still on the weekend but more cloud and showers than initially expected. Noticed how BBC have finally back tracked on their phantom 30 degrees now as they have finally caught up with what the models were showing, which wasn't sunshine and 30 celcius but more low twenties, more cloud and some showers with the cold front clearing out to the east by late Saturday.

4

30c is very much on for today but not for where most would have probably thought NW England and northern Scotland have the best chances

arpegeuk-31-18-0.thumb.png.9fc2fb76c7a3a8251050f136d1f72e08.png

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Sat on the bank fishing and its already el scorchio! Wrt the models think it might be a while before the warm settled stuff we have been enjoying makes a return, seems the Atlantic is going up a few gears next week, ecm offers little hope of anything other than Atlantic muck into early June.

Edited by northwestsnow
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32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

30c is very much on for today but not for where most would have probably thought NW England and northern Scotland have the best chances

arpegeuk-31-18-0.thumb.png.9fc2fb76c7a3a8251050f136d1f72e08.png

Amazing weather, enjoy the heat today and tomorrow..hopefully June will bring more spells like this!:)

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5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Looks like after midweek things are going to go downhill as low pressure starts to take over.

More annoyingly it looks like polar heights are set to rise again. From this:

ECH1-0.GIF?26-12 

To this:

ECH1-216.GIF?26-12gfsnh-0-216.png

Which will probably mean cooler and unsettled for a time.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/long-range-forecast

The
MetO fancy this unsettled spell in their long ranger too, wit things perhaps settling down towards mid month.

Here comes punishment weather - days and days of wind and rain to pay for this week.

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3 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Here comes punishment weather - days and days of wind and rain to pay for this week.

The Gfs 6z also shows some fine and warm weather at times, especially further south / east with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius.:)

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4 hours ago, 40*C said:

Here comes punishment weather - days and days of wind and rain to pay for this week.

The latest UKMO sees this trough to the west edging closer but still unclear if its coming over the Uk or staying west. Very warm conditions returning is not out of the question imo

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Not a bad run from the GFS 12z- in fact midweek onwards looks rather warm with that trough stalling out to the northwest of the UK. Uppers of 7-8C for much of England and Wales which could mean low 20s for many.

Low pressure struggles to break through for most of the run- a very reasonable run in all honesty- certainly won't be as spectacular as it is today, but above average temperatures are still a possibility.

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Well, some of us almost got to 30c 86f today, what a beauty and looking ahead to next week, as scorcher mentioned above the Gfs 12z doesn't look bad at all from midweek with fairly high pressure bringing plenty of fine pleasantly warm weather, especially for the s / e with temps into the low 20's celsius range..very reasonable.:)

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38 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well, some of us almost got to 30c 86f today, what a beauty and looking ahead to next week, as scorcher mentioned above the Gfs 12z doesn't look bad at all from midweek with fairly high pressure bringing plenty of fine pleasantly warm weather, especially for the s / e with temps into the low 20's celsius range..very reasonable.:)

DAw5MvtWAAA7kS6.jpg

12_123_mslp500.png

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A nationwide heatwave, certainly makes a change to see no one missing out from north to south. :)

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13 minutes ago, snowray said:

A nationwide heatwave, certainly makes a change to see no one missing out from north to south. :)

Agreed, it makes a very welcome change to see all parts of the uk basking in glorious sunshine and temps into the 80's F, hopefully it will happen again during the summer.:)

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44 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, it makes a very welcome change to see all parts of the uk basking in glorious sunshine and temps into the 80's F, hopefully it will happen again during the summer.:)

Absolutely stifling right now with another night to look forward to where the temp is unlikely to drop below 18 before 5am. No thank you.

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Looking at the next three days or so, the Ecm 12z indicates another very warm day tomorrow with hazy sunshine and scattered thunderstorms and warm and humid conditions continue across the s / se with temperatures potentially into the mid 20's celsius on sun-mon depending on sunshine amounts but there is also likely to be a risk of thundery rain / showers around in the south too.

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Edited by Frosty.
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1 hour ago, snowray said:

A nationwide heatwave, certainly makes a change to see no one missing out from north to south. :)

Does a couple of days of above average temps really mean a heatwave?

Times must be desperate if that's the case.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Does a couple of days of above average temps really mean a heatwave?

Times must be desperate if that's the case.

I would call it a mini heatwave rather than just saying a few days of above average temps..

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17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Does a couple of days of above average temps really mean a heatwave?

Times must be desperate if that's the case.

Strange post- not sure what you expect in May? Today could beat the CET date record- to me that is pretty hot for the time of year.

No reason you can't call a 2 day spell a heatwave- to me all that is required is in the word itself- heat!

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27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Does a couple of days of above average temps really mean a heatwave?

Times must be desperate if that's the case.

Three consecutive days above 25C in May is very unusual. Last happened in 2012. 

It also happened here in 1995 and 2003, for what it's worth - and we all know what those summers were like (although the less said about 2012 the better!).

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26 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Does a couple of days of above average temps really mean a heatwave?

Times must be desperate if that's the case.

I wouldn't say so. That's a strange angle to take. I think @snowraywas alluding to the fact the heat has reached the whole of the UK rather than just the south for a change. It's certainly notable for May and temperatures have been above average to well above average for most of the working week.

The Met Office earlier tweeted that for the 3rd day in a row each of the home nations have recorded their warmest days of the year so far. I don't see why this shouldn't be deemed a heatwave or a mini-heatwave??

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According to Wikipedia a heatwave is a prolonged period of above average temperatures

The models are showing a breakdown starting tomorrow after a couple of days of above average temps.

So, no, this hasn't been a heatwave.

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