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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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30 minutes ago, knocker said:

As always I note with interest this morning the number of people in receipt of a stipend from the SE tourist board. It may come as a complete surprise but people in the rest of the country also have a vested interest in the weather.

Of course knocker, but the main bone of contention today seems to be the extent of what heat we may get....as it looks mainly confined to the SE now, that's the main area of discussion! Unless we all want to get giddy talking about 18-20c and rain that the western half will get??! Be interesting to see how this plays out.

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Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

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5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

There could be some big thunder storms moving in south east England 

IMG_0352.PNG

Looks like they might be bigger for France!  Could be serious stuff for them if that comes off!

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Looking increasingly like the hottest weather will stay across the channel now (GFS correct) but that the warmth stays close to the south throughout the Bank Holiday weekend (ECM correct)

Once within the D4 period, I find the ARPEGE to be a slightly better guide than than GFS, and it has some really interesting heat-zones! Look at Friday. 29C on the north coast of Scotland. 28C in Anglesea. But most crackers of all is 26C in Orkney - I think the May maximums there are usually about 11C?

arpegeuk-31-66-0.png?24-06

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3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Looking increasingly like the hottest weather will stay across the channel now (GFS correct) but that the warmth stays close to the south throughout the Bank Holiday weekend (ECM correct)

Once within the D4 period, I find the ARPEGE to be a slightly better guide than than GFS, and it has some really interesting heat-zones! Look at Friday. 29C on the north coast of Scotland. 28C in Anglesea. But most crackers of all is 26C in Orkney - I think the May maximums there are usually about 11C?

arpegeuk-31-66-0.png?24-06

BBC also going for 29c in northern Scotland on Friday too....that is seriously hot (probably record breaking for the time of year?) for that neck of the woods! :shok:

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Still questions regarding the weekend, but one aspect of the breakdown might not be strictly true, that it might take until next week to fully break the warm spell down.

arpegeuk-41-26-0.png?24-18   arpegeuk-41-50-0.png?24-18   

Widespread warmth for the next couple of days at least.

Into the weekend we see the potential for some showery outbreaks to move north across the UK. Arpege at midday on Saturday.

arpegeuk-1-70-0.png?24-18

This moves swiftly through with sunshine following behind.

arpegeuk-41-74-0.png?24-18

Very warm across England and Scotland away from the far north east where sea breezes could bring in low cloud, still high twenties, possibly closing in on 30C. Western areas with a lot more cloud will see temperatures suppressed. 

Sunday sees fresher conditions in the north and west with showers, further south we see a repeat of Saturday though the rain arrives late on in the day.

arpegeuk-1-100-0.png?24-18

Temperatures still pretty good in the east, in fact eastern Scotland will see a much better day in terms of sunshine and temperatures, still mid to high twenties possible.

arpegeuk-41-98-0.png?24-18

 

So in the short range, the heat looks to continue in eastern areas, it does turn fresher in the west. 

Lets see what the ECM comes up with.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Still questions regarding the weekend, but one aspect of the breakdown might not be strictly true, that it might take until next week to fully break the warm spell down.

arpegeuk-41-26-0.png?24-18   arpegeuk-41-50-0.png?24-18   

Widespread warmth for the next couple of days at least.

Into the weekend we see the potential for some showery outbreaks to move north across the UK. Arpege at midday on Saturday.

arpegeuk-1-70-0.png?24-18

This moves swiftly through with sunshine following behind.

arpegeuk-41-74-0.png?24-18

Very warm across England and Scotland away from the far north east where sea breezes could bring in low cloud, still high twenties, possibly closing in on 30C. Western areas with a lot more cloud will see temperatures suppressed. 

Sunday sees fresher conditions in the north and west with showers, further south we see a repeat of Saturday though the rain arrives late on in the day.

arpegeuk-1-100-0.png?24-18

Temperatures still pretty good in the east, in fact eastern Scotland will see a much better day in terms of sunshine and temperatures, still mid to high twenties possible.

arpegeuk-41-98-0.png?24-18

 

So in the short range, the heat looks to continue in eastern areas, it does turn fresher in the west. 

Lets see what the ECM comes up with.

 

 

looking at those charts and taking them at face value the heat will only best in more Eastern areas by the time the FA Cup starts , still pleasant mind but cooler by comparison especially the further West you go

Edited by Gordon Webb
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The ecm has a generally warm day on Friday with little cloud. Temps around 24C but odd spots north of the Mersey, including Scotland, touching 26C maybe 27C

By 06z on Saturday the developing wave is over Ireland with the front trailing across Cornwall  The low moves north during the day and the front, with sporadic rain, tracks NE to be around the borders/Newcastle area by 18z  Thus there is very much a NW,W/SE split vis the ST with with 16-22C in the former and SE of a line the Wash/Portsmouth 26C possible 27C in places.

This low quickly clears away before the next bout of instability arrives in the Channel by 12z on Sunday. This moves quickly into the south and the Midlands en route to the North Sea and could well produce some fireworks in the south east Sunday evening. Temps will vary somewhat if this weather comes to pass in the south but generally 22-24C in England and 12C - 18C elsewhere including the south west.

On Monday the ridge from the SW enters the fray so dry apart from some sporadic outbreaks in the south. So quite a pleasant day with temps generally around 20-22C apart from NW Scotland.

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Ecm keeps the low much further south at 144, and thus it effects the uk a lot more than ukmo.....turns into a horrendous run. A lot to play for yet though, still ages away.

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Wouldn't worry too much 10 days ago ECM showed colder air filtering down from the north

ECM1-240.GIF?12ECM0-240.GIF?12

Reality the warmest day of the year so far in the UK with high pressure over the UK

ECM1-0.GIF?24-0ECM0-0.GIF?24-0

It just goes to show how lucky we are to have this summery spell right in front of us..we should enjoy it and not worry about next week. 

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13 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I can't understand the downbeat mood, temps today widely at 22c and possibly 27c for the southeast..tomorrow widely 25-27c across England and Wales with long spells of sunshine and even warmer on Friday with a hot day on Saturday, still indicating 30-31c for favoured spots ahead of a thundery breakdown from the w / sw late sat and overnight into sunday..it's still late spring!:D

Mmm I think its because a breakdown is likely to occur over the weekend, and for some just in time for the start of the school holidays. Indeed for western parts the weekend is looking dare I say it quite mediocre, the heat of tomorrow and Friday quickly blasted away.. the breakdown is forecast early Sat not late Sat in such parts.. 

Into next week, models are flipping around a bit, but low pressure could be more dominant than has been shown in recent runs, at this time of year, low pressure can have a habit of becoming very slow moving, with little oomph to the jetstream and it can be a very fine line between early summer dry warmth, and rather drab overcast cooler conditions.

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There have been indications for a while now that post this very pleasant spell of weather and after the transition the first week in June will be much more influenced by the Atlantic trough and thus the weather becoming more unsettled and temps dipping below average. Tonight's anomalies do nothing to dispel this.

The overall picture is of  a trough NE Europe and lobe and trough down the eastern United States with associated trough in the Iceland area. The high pressure in the vicinity of the UK has declined and is now away in the east so an upper flow in the south west quadrant portending as previously mentioned more unsettled weather with temps trending below average

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.84eecec8b2a5bc062764096d44b43511.png610day_03.thumb.gif.3ef882dbb84f35c0ec3a16cb527c9acd.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.c598df80249296ac0ae419bd63204859.png

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.45665cf9ebeb29505eefb5047d627a27.png

In the later period no great agreement regarding the Atlantic trough in particular as the EPS makes much more of it than the gfs and has temps continuing below average whereas the gfs is attempting to build a ridge to the east. Very much a watching brief at the moment albeit the percentage play is still tending unsettled

gefs_z500a_nh_61.thumb.png.e2b8a4b0ebd02cd9d51ddd7ca41427d2.png814day_03.thumb.gif.b323b3dfebc816702a5e1a9ec51a991f.gif

A young Sidney enjoying the rays

little.thumb.jpg.a8086e391c6bdcf3b11bc753af4199bd.jpg

 

Edited by knocker
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The weather here looks fairly nice for the weekend - highs of 24C on Saturday and 21C on Sunday. Fresher on Sunday, but still perfectly pleasant. 21C is above average for May.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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I'm not sure there is too much point nick picking this morning's gfs as the particular area of interest, the instability Sunday/Monday probably will not be resolved until much nearer the time. Anyway a brief glance.

The next two days looking great with the temps tomorrow generally in the 22C - 24C (usual health warning vis model temps)

Saturday 06z sees the wave across S. Ireland with the front across Cornwall (the 00z fax chart is a little more complicated). In the next 12 hours the low drifts north and the weak front tracks north east across Wales and England. Regarding temperatures, put simplistically, this initiates a sliding west-east scale with temps around 16C in west Wales and the south west to 24C, possible 26C in the East Midlands .Lincolnshire and East Anglia.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.9521de4947357e6ba86c6ab935875c0b.gifgfs_ptype_slp_eur2_12.thumb.png.10bf27b0a3c1137be642f02da78913b4.png

The low then proceeds to move away NE overnight Saturday and through Sunday as high pressure builds to the west and the low pressure and unstable area to the south stirs.Temps generally around 22C, in places 24C, but cooler (relatively speaking) in the W/NW around 16C and even 12C in NW Scotland

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_16.thumb.png.a90ad1a5e41dc87e83125799e2d9db82.png

Monday morning sees the area to the south get more organized and an area of precipitation moves north/north east from France. This is roughly the situation for the next 24 hours and I suspect the question to be resolved is weather the storm/thundery activity impacts the south/ south east or remains over north east France and Belgium. On Monday temps still above average generally and possible touching 24C on the Palace Pier, Brighton.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_19.thumb.png.66f599ed8e01e5bc27368b9574c2d529.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur2_23.thumb.png.d9637d10f1c7497652a068181fb54949.png

All in all not too bad over the three days of the long weekend but there will be some marked variation of weather depending on location

.

 

Edited by knocker
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18 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

UKMO keeps the trough to the west with a finger of heights over Britain. Let's hope the stalling trough keeps spinning on the same spot!

IMG_1247.PNG

Hope you dont mind me asking , but what does that mean ? Does it mean that it would keep the lows at bay for now (the stallling trough? ) Very new to all of this . 

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9 minutes ago, Ciderwithrosie said:

Hope you dont mind me asking , but what does that mean ? Does it mean that it would keep the lows at bay for now (the stallling trough? ) Very new to all of this . 

Yes and maybe even suck up more hot air from spain and africa which  could potentially mean another hot period of weather coming up!!

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Ukmo looks very similar to ecm which eventually brings the low in, by this is now after midweek and not as bad as shown yesterday. Plenty of time for this to change! Doesn't look too disastrous overall, just back to standard weather.

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To illustrate that the weekend is a long way from being resolved the ecm is far more progressive with the area of instability tracking north and has it impacting the SW by 12z Sunday and moving it slowly ENE to be just clearing the SE coast 24 hours later Certainly a chance of thundery activity, more likely in the SE, but this will have to wait to be resolved

Meanwhile back at the ranch at T144 the main upper trough in the Atlantic saunters up to the Iceland area but it deconstructs :shok: which spawns a quite impressive surface low that swings in to be south of Ireland midnight Thursday.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.033a24a07688582478c5fe1887107ef1.pngecm_z500_anom_natl_7.thumb.png.8968c18d88196100655dce3089be3ec2.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.5e7e97f9831ffa1377d953e58395bf31.png

This quickly traverses the UK and the next low duly tracks in from the SW by the weekend

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.15009cd539e705717a94b174fc3d6173.png

Edited by knocker
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This looks like an impressive hot spell by late spring standards. Yesterday reached 26c in the SE and today could reach 29c in the SE and parts of the w / nw..widely mid 20's celsius. Tomorrow even hotter, high 20's c and Saturday hotter still..Enjoy:)

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Models looking not as bad this morning in terms what we break down to next week. Just back to standard fare with temps probably still surpassing 20C in the south.

If we can maximise on heat and sunshine this weekend, this spell may just be worth remembering! 

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