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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

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5 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Looks like the folk over on two forum also agreeing with my input on a Saturday breakdown. Looks inevitable now unfortunately. Even ecm ensembles have a front across the country midday Saturday bring cloud and showers. Perhaps a squeeze to 27 degrees in far south East but the BBC banging on about 30 degrees they will have egg on their face! 

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You like me in winter! I understand and agree, all good weather spells get downgraded, West does look average on Saturday, but only May!

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I said yesterday lots of uncertainties for the weekend, and today we have seen developments suggesting perhaps a much quicker breakdown of the imminent dry warm/very warm conditions, alas remains to be seen. Best days look like being Thursday and Friday with widespread maxes in the 20's for most under abundant sunshine and light winds, tomorrow could be quite cloudy in some places with temps supressed a bit, indeed some rain for NW parts, so it could end up being just a 2 day wonder.. I like warm weather, but if its cloudy and wet with it, its not that good really, especially over any weekend.. would be a pity to end up with a bank holiday weekend with minimal sunny dry weather - which unfortunately could be the case for many western parts at least..

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Just had a look at the GEFS 12z mean for next week and there is good support for the Azores high to ridge in at least across southern uk bringing plenty of fine warm weather in the run up to and into early summer.

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When looking at the gfs this morning probably not a bad idea to keep the latest fax charts in mind

PPVM89.thumb.gif.99db374f2a0fd66596ea326ba3cda9b9.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.75b5fff326ae02569f29cc622912abd0.gif

Tomorrow and Friday quite warm and hopefully pretty cloud free for most with temps 24C maybe 26C  By 12z Saturday a wave has formed on the front and is over N. Ireland. The aforementioned front tracks NE over Saturday taking showery rain with it and it also marks the boundary between the cooler and warmer air. 14C -20C in the west and still 24C in the far SE.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.dca1bdf06f849298076b296650a5c0ce.png

Sunday sees the next interesting development. The Saturday low is filling and drifting north but an upper trough has broken away from the main trough to the west and lies to the south west. This greatly assists the shallow surface low to track north to be near Brest with a rain belt, perhaps thundery, along the Channel. Again a tight temp gradient but north to south, ranging from around 12C in N. Scotland to 24C right on the south coast.

gfs_z500a_natl_20.thumb.png.115786eae2984dff45f7388ec8260314.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_20.thumb.png.2b46b2b5e8588023af98cf8a67ed37d9.png

In the next 24 hours the low drifts north into the Irish Sea and the rain belt does similar across England  Whether this precipitation amounts to much we will see.All of this introduces some much cooler air into the mix but as usual I suspect a certain amount of reservation is in order.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_24.thumb.png.ba83be49cb07e30445886f836ea4c889.png

This low also fills and drifts away heralding a brief ridge before the main trough to the west takes closer order.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_32.thumb.png.bd9bbf54d7efd18dde2b5b19163fdca9.png

Edited by knocker
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23 minutes ago, knocker said:

When looking at the gfs this morning probably not a bad idea to keep the latest fax charts in mind

PPVM89.thumb.gif.99db374f2a0fd66596ea326ba3cda9b9.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.75b5fff326ae02569f29cc622912abd0.gif

Tomorrow and Friday quite warm and hopefully pretty cloud free for most with temps 24C maybe 26C  By 12z Saturday a wave has formed on the front and is over N. Ireland. The aforementioned front tracks NE over Saturday taking showery rain with it and it also marks the boundary between the cooler and warmer air. 14C -20C in the west and still 24C in the far SE.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.dca1bdf06f849298076b296650a5c0ce.png

Sunday sees the next interesting development. The Saturday low is filling and drifting north but an upper trough has broken away from the main trough to the west and lies to the south west. This greatly assists the shallow surface low to track north to be near Brest with a rain belt, perhaps thundery, along the Channel. Again a tight temp gradient but north to south, ranging from around 12C in N. Scotland to 24C right on the south coast.

gfs_z500a_natl_20.thumb.png.115786eae2984dff45f7388ec8260314.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_20.thumb.png.2b46b2b5e8588023af98cf8a67ed37d9.png

In the next 24 hours the low drifts north into the Irish Sea and the rain belt does similar across England  Whether this precipitation amounts to much we will see.All of this introduces some much cooler air into the mix but as usual I suspect a certain amount of reservation is in order.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_24.thumb.png.ba83be49cb07e30445886f836ea4c889.png

This low also fills and drifts away heralding a brief ridge before the main trough to the west takes closer order.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_32.thumb.png.bd9bbf54d7efd18dde2b5b19163fdca9.png

Yet, I was the one being slated for negativity yesterday. However, as I mentioned in previous posts, was just being realistic. 30 celcius was out of the equation as early as Monday. All models now in agreement for the breakdown Saturday which is a huge shame considering the charts were so fantastic recently. Looks warm in the south still on the weekend but more cloud and showers than initially expected. Noticed how BBC have finally back tracked on their phantom 30 degrees now as they have finally caught up with what the models were showing, which wasn't sunshine and 30 celcius but more low twenties, more cloud and some showers with the cold front clearing out to the east by late Saturday.

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Summer has arrived early, increasing sunshine and warmth during the coming days and becoming very warm / hot for fri-sat and more humid with a slow thundery breakdown from the west..nothing to moan about in my opinion!:)

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Very interesting model watching at the moment and some great analysis in here as usual, I've just seen the forecast on the bbc this morning and it's still going for 30c in the southeast but as others have pointed out we may not quite hit the dizzy heights . Hopefully this is the first decent summer spell of many this year.

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33 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Yet, I was the one being slated for negativity yesterday. However, as I mentioned in previous posts, was just being realistic. 30 celcius was out of the equation as early as Monday. All models now in agreement for the breakdown Saturday which is a huge shame considering the charts were so fantastic recently. Looks warm in the south still on the weekend but more cloud and showers than initially expected. Noticed how BBC have finally back tracked on their phantom 30 degrees now as they have finally caught up with what the models were showing, which wasn't sunshine and 30 celcius but more low twenties, more cloud and some showers with the cold front clearing out to the east by late Saturday.

The breakdown was modelled to occur generally over the weekend, some models have tended towards the middle and some towards the end. Latest fax charts are showing a fairly slow moving cold front across the far W at lunchtime on Sat, then having cleared the E coast by the same time on Sun. So Saturday still has the potential to be a very nice and hot, sunny day across much of the UK away from the SW which will see more cloud, cooler temperatures and showers. Sunday could also be very pleasant as the front has cleared into the near continent. Of course, if the front makes speedier progress then the forecast will change but models may well slow it down again, it is only Wednesday. 

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Well as much as it pains me to say its beginning to look like the metoffice were spot on when they talked of an unsettled first week of june :-(

That ruddy low at 144 is going to do all the damage and by 168 its wound itself into a pretty potent system ..

 

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I can't understand the downbeat mood, temps today widely at 22c and possibly 27c for the southeast..tomorrow widely 25-27c across England and Wales with long spells of sunshine and even warmer on Friday with a hot day on Saturday, still indicating 30-31c for favoured spots ahead of a thundery breakdown from the w / sw late sat and overnight into sunday..it's still late spring!:D

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I can't understand the downbeat mood, temps today widely at 22c and possibly 27c for the southeast..tomorrow widely 25-27c across England and Wales with long spells of sunshine and even warmer on Friday with a hot day on Saturday, still indicating 30-31c for favoured spots ahead of a thundery breakdown from the w / sw late sat and overnight into sunday..it's still late spring!:D

Agreed Frosty, looking great the next few days for many. Indeed summer has already arrived here in the southeast, the last 4 days temps have had temps in the low 20's with lots of sunshine with light winds. Thundery breakdown at the weekend and signs HP trying to nudge back in after the weekend which may up a NW/SE split but too far out to made call on that just yet

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The main difference vis the ecm this morning is the track of the Sunday low. It has it moving more NNE and the convective belt affecting the south west by 12z Sunday and then the rest of England by midnight Monday  Thus temperature wise very much a NW/W to SE progression with the former as low as 12C but generally16C to 24C, possibly 26C SE of a line Humber to Dorset..

Monday sees the showery activity slowly dissipating as the ridge builds from the SW with temps generally a little above average in the 20-22C range.

ecm_mslp_uv850_eur_6.thumb.png.39e0e8fdb297e65aa95da40226abdd1e.pngecm_mslp_uv850_eur_7.thumb.png.450586426d6162eeeeb37fa802666466.png

 

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As accurate as any for Sunday is probably the latest issues of Met Fax charts, note the one for 12 z Satrurday issued this morning. If their idea is correct then most of the heat is gone by Sunday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Best I clear up what I intended. I used the 12z Saturday to show how confident with their 0554 this morning issue of the chart for Saturday. Then went on to the current 120h chart which showed the front well clear by 12z Sunday. So yes Saturday will be a 'hot' day east of the front. Come Sunday afternoon and all parts of the Uk are west of the front-hence my comment as above!

 

Edited by johnholmes
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BBC still going for 30c in the SE on Saturday, but the front moving in from the west is obviously further in than it was thought to be a day or two ago. The fine weather now only expected for roughly the east midlands, East Anglia, the SE. Fresher out west as the front pushes through, thundery as it clashes with the heat.

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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

As accurate as any for Sunday is probably the latest issues of Met Fax charts, note the one for 12 z Satrurday issued this morning. If their idea is correct then most of the heat is gone by Sunday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

 

Indeed - but at 12pm Saturday, the front hasn't made it too far west. The east is still under the hot air and >564dam, so I certainly think that a 30c is possible! :)

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

30c is certainly possible before the breakdown

39_uk2mtmp.png?cb=26063_uk2mtmp.png?cb=26087_uk2mtmp.png?cb=260

Agreed, there have been some misleading comments this morning saying there is and never was any chance of 30c+ but clearly there is.

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As always I note with interest this morning the number of people in receipt of a stipend from the SE tourist board. It may come as a complete surprise but people in the rest of the country also have a vested interest in the weather.

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

As always I note with interest this morning the number of people in receipt of a stipend from the SE tourist board. It may come as a complete surprise but people in the rest of the country also have a vested interest in the weather.

As always, I note the jealousy and mean spirited attitudes directed at the poor SE which cannot help generally enjoying the best weather in the UK. Perhaps the large numbers of said people in receipt of such a stipend has a direct correlation with a third of the entire UK population living in the aforementioned region alone?

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N/W Scotland has a stark difference in temps compared to the South, With temps into single digits and blustery winds/rain as a small Low exits North over the Outer Hebrides.

A snapshot for Sunday from the Net/Wx- MR Model.

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I wonder if the theme of an acceleration of the breakdown might continue in today's runs.  It seemed to me to be a common occurence of the winter...a promising outcome modelled, then breaking down faster than initially modelled then breaking down so fast the originally modelled outcome did not take place!

Certainly we have a couple of fine days to come, but I wouldn't be totally surprised to see the runs today bring forward the cooler fresher air into even the SE by saturday afternoon 

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