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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

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4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Ok, can you post the latest fax when it appears please? 

hope to get google chrome back, Microsoft Edge is crap! doesn't seem to let me post, done it today! latest upto date one

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11 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

I fully believe that to be conservative at the very least. I would love that to be the case don't get me wrong but just expect the worst.

Can I ask for clarification regarding your opinion that we'll struggle to even hit mid twenties "going by the latest output"? 30C looks very achievable Fri and Sat especially in the favoured SE spots.

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8 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Do you work for the Met Office and have secret information that we don't? It's probably wise in the UK to expect the worst, for sure, but I certainly don't blindly believe the GFS

No, but if I did I wouldn't be deceiving the unknowledgeable public into false hopes of 30 degrees when it won't be! 

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1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

No, but if I did I wouldn't be deceiving the unknowledgeable public into false hopes of 30 degrees when it won't be! 

How do you know it won't reach 30c..?

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

How do you know it won't reach 30c..?

12z ecm. Saturday lunchtime. As expected, the breakdown has commenced. Showers and lots of cloud moving swiftly in. High uppers moving swiftly from west to east. 

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1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

12z ecm. Saturday lunchtime. As expected, the breakdown has commenced. Showers and lots of cloud moving swiftly in. High uppers moving swiftly from west to east. 

ECM1-96.gif

I'm keeping an open mind, it could still be a hot and humid weekend..the fat lady isn't singing yet.:D

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Whether we reach 30c or not, the Ecm 12z is showing a very warm spell with sunshine and a risk of T-Storms..I'm happy with that!:D

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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Whether we reach 30c or not, the Ecm 12z is showing a very warm spell with sunshine and a risk of T-Storms..I'm happy with that!:D

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However, more progressive again compared to the 00z and more akin to the gfs... Only going in one direction.

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ECM is fine - 850s are still a shade under 15c Saturday, and with a warm day and night Friday....30c looks more than possible. Certainly still very warm in the SE, before breaking down Monday. I don't think anyone was expecting anything more than this really, so I'm not sure what your point is??! :cc_confused:

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35 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

No, but if I did I wouldn't be deceiving the unknowledgeable public into false hopes of 30 degrees when it won't be! 

Well, when the forecasts came out from them it very much looked possible to be fair so it isn't deceiving people. I think it's good that they recognise that even their own raw/computer output can be a few degrees too low. The SE and East Anglia could still touch 30C on Saturday on the ECM I'd guess.

Also I'm pretty sure this won't be a failed to materialise warm spell and many places will still get the mid-high 20's.. I don't recall charts like this with clear sky less than a month from the summer solstice only giving the low 20's before.

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In fact I remember 26-27C even around here from 850's barely scraping 10C in early May 2008, and these 850's are a few degrees higher so who knows.

It's perhaps a little disappointing that there may be a quicker start to a breakdown on Saturday, and the ECM's most exciting output looks like it may not happen, I feel that too (it seems the most reliable model doesn't verify when its output is interesting lol). Though I think we need to be realistic that such charts were never really the form horse.. and if the summer's decent, it will make very little difference in the end.

Edited by Evening thunder
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The ecm has  the wave depression over Ireland at 06z on Saturday. It then tracks it NNE to Scotland by 00z Sunday. The main precipitation will be near the centre of the low but a weak band of showery activity will cross the country to the NE on Saturday on the front before petering out. Generally quite warm, particularly in the SE where the temps may reach 26C but much cooler along the west coast.

As this depression moves away it leaves the UK in a very slack pressure area on Sunday but with quite a temperature gradient from Scotland to the south coast.  As low as 10C at the former and possible 26C in west Sussex with everything in between.

By 18z Sunday the next bout of showery activity has arrived in the west country and this will track north over night Sunday and Monday morning bringing some of this showery activity to most but particularly in the west. Temps on Monday in general lower but a fair spread west to east,

I feel this is still not nailed down

 

Edited by knocker
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40 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

12z ecm. Saturday lunchtime. As expected, the breakdown has commenced. Showers and lots of cloud moving swiftly in. High uppers moving swiftly from west to east. 

ECM1-96.gif

The very same ECM has warm uppers across the bulk of the country and very warm uppers still clipping the SE at midday Saturday. The warm air stays over the country through Sunday and indeed Monday too. It'll be a little cooler then yes but still above average.

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Fresher conditions finally make it across the country on Tuesday,

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25 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

However, more progressive again compared to the 00z and more akin to the gfs... Only going in one direction.

How is it more progressive when it isn't until Tuesday when the fresher air arrives, despite "the breakdown commencing Saturday"? Bizarre post!

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Just a comparison for today (GFS/Arpege/actual temperatures)

3-582UK.GIF?23-12   arpegeuk-41-3-0.png?23-18   temp_uk-16.png

GFS out by a couple of degrees even at T0 apparently, Arpege bang on the money.

So again in retrospect it is perhaps unwise to judge how warm it is going to be by the GFS which is wrong by a good few degrees even at the point of initialisation.

So what do we have in store for the next few days

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So 24/25C tomorrow, up a couple of degrees on Thursday and Friday, interesting that the far north of Scotland (Morray Firth) could be the warmest spot with 28C, I suspect anywhere with prolonged sunny spells inland could reach that mark.

Saturday has offered complications with shallow areas of low pressure tracking northwards towards the UK offering more cloud and the chance of showers (possibly thundery).

gfs-0-96.png?12   UW96-21.GIF?23-18   ECM1-96.GIF?23-0

This low near the UK is now a much more significant feature (UKMO downplays this somewhat and hence a much better scenario), small scale features like this are hard to pick up and even harder to model correctly even at four days out. Still a solid few days of very warm weather ahead with a good chance of this holding on into the weekend, especially the further south and east you are.

So conclusions, maybe stay clear of the GFS for two reasons, firstly its apparent struggles with the longwave pattern as said earlier, second the fact it is clearly producing too low a temperature across the board even at T0. The second is with shallow depressions moving in across the weekend, that perhaps we need more runs to clarify the track of these systems.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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I don't see any reason to be downbeat, it's going to become much warmer through the rest of this week, especially when our high drifts east over the north sea and we start importing continental air sourced from southern europe up and across the uk..enjoy it, summer starts next thursday..this is a late spring bonus.:)

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Perhaps people have forgotten it's still may! It was 24c here yesterday, 22 today, next few days are forecast 23/25/26/28/27/24....it'll be well over a week of well above average temps. This is like getting snow in mid november, a big bonus!

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It's always satisfying to see the model thread labelled as 'hot' when such weather is on the horizon :yahoo:

My amateur take on things, but I would think that any low moving up from Iberia at the end of the week will not be nailed or even close to until Thursday at the earliest. Thundery lows are incredibly hard to pin down and the arrival of such a low has been shown for just about everyday time period between Friday night and next Monday afternoon. The panic button should be kept at bay for a while yet! (however, I do expect Friday and Saturday to be sunny and warm as a minimum requirement hehe).

Before then, a very summery feeling few days to come. Bring it on!

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55 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Perhaps people have forgotten it's still may! It was 24c here yesterday, 22 today, next few days are forecast 23/25/26/28/27/24....it'll be well over a week of well above average temps. This is like getting snow in mid november, a big bonus!

Getting snow in January is a bonus these days. Hopefully down here in the south east we can scrape through Bank holiday Monday before the inevitable breakdown.

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Looks like the folk over on two forum also agreeing with my input on a Saturday breakdown. Looks inevitable now unfortunately. Even ecm ensembles have a front across the country midday Saturday bring cloud and showers. Perhaps a squeeze to 27 degrees in far south East but the BBC banging on about 30 degrees they will have egg on their face! 

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