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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Yes just to confuse things this evening the ecm has renewed ridging to the west towards the end of next week that swats the trough away, That leaves the option of a thundery low developing over Iberia with instability drifting north. I suspect it will be a couple of days before this is nailed down to any detailed extent.

ecm_t850_anom_natl_10.thumb.png.f911fe6babb61f015b13cec5190e49be.png

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Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

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Middle of next week onwards looks lovely for many, should be some warm weather around as the high drifts north, bit concerned that by next weekend that trough may begin to spoil things, always a posibilty with strong heights to the north west..still should hopefully be a good 3or 4 days of warm stuff so no complaints..

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1 hour ago, 40*C said:

Brilliant charts but just watch it all erode away until we're left with 22/23C in the far south east for just one day only.

18z turns into a scorchio lasting right into bank holiday weekend. No downgrades just yet!!

This is 9.am next Sunday 28th.

9 am.png

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19 minutes ago, 40*C said:

18z turns into a scorchio lasting right into bank holiday weekend. No downgrades just yet!!

This is 9.am next Sunday 28th.

9 am.png

Indeed a nice summery plume being projected for this time next weekend a nice southerly waft dragging up some very warm air, widely temperatures in the mid 20s; approaching 30C/86F in prone 'hot spots' I would think. Culminating into a thundery breakdown? Yes, please! :) 

image.thumb.png.6e510501e7928007599390fdad869b7a.pngimage.thumb.png.3b5d832dce884d5a373ee24bf292173c.png

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An example of taking nothing for granted as we get towards the end of next week. The ecm this morning is going in for a quite complex scenario which no doubt will be modified by later runs but it's not without interest.

By Friday there is a negatively tilted upper trough mid Atlantic which 24 hours later has spawned a quite intense surface low to the SW of the UK whilst at the same time a shallow low over Iberia tracks NW and deepens to phase in with it. Thus by 00z Sunday we have these two lows to the W/SW and HP to the N/E and the UK in a warm south easterly drift.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.bb6ce6e166ff5b91dc2db778171c087e.png

From this position in the next 24 hours a shallow low pressure covers an area Iberia/France/UK with some quite intense thundery outbreaks indicated in all of these areas which would produce a very interesting Monday. But that's a long way off.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.8f7c126c21f9f374174e555328a62585.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.8a0977da8ad4b4ae9f31573d147cbc01.png

 

 

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The anomaly charts have moved towards the idea of a block, see the links, with troughing down its western side. So supporting the idea of a settled 6-10 day outlook, at least to start, with fairly warm air being pulled up from a southerly point. How thundery as time goes on will be decided nearer the time on the synoptic models.

Perhaps several days of warmth for many areas?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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A tricky detail to resolve is whether the surface flow around the ridge will bring some fresher air across central/northern France early-mid week which then comes our way Thu-Sat as the flow turns to the SE. GFS has been keen on this for two runs in a row now, though not as much so on the 06z as the 00z, but the 18z GFS and from the looks of it 00z ECM both keep the fresher air to the east of France, as does the 00z GEM for that matter.

By the weekend the setup looks very interesting with a good consensus now for broad quasi-stationary trough to take shape S. of Greenland which should help to keep HP in place across the North Sea or perhaps closer to us than that, with shallow lows in the heat plume struggling to make much progress N or NE from the near continent, though some erosion of the ridge at times to bring about slack conditions with thunderstorm potential is certainly plausible as the 00z ECM shows. Quite the contrast with Scandinavia where late wintry blast is looking likely days 7-10 - but this is a common theme when the UK has fine spells. The question going forward is then whether the associated trough sinks south enough for our ridge to extend NE over it or even attempt an escape. Hopefully if it tries the latter, a new ridge will follow on from the southwest and perhaps link up much as the GFS 06z toys around with.

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Beautiful runs this morning with temps widely in the 20s wed onwards, the only fly in the ointment is the meto update which is suggesting things break down through next weekend and into the new week, we' ll see..

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Quite a turnaround in the past 48-72 hours or so, I haven't been looking at the models much over the past few days.. A late May warm settled spell is showing up, how long it lasts certainly questionable, and it will be a wait and see watch. There is a strong chance thundery outbreaks and shallow heat low/trough action could invade from the south west as we enter next weekend, spoiling the party, conversely the ridge could hold up strong over the country killing off any such developments. Mid 20' maxima certainly plausible for many come Thursday, making it feel very summery, some spots could hit high 20's.. nothing too unusual for late May though.

Longer term.. signs of strong heights building far to the NE once again, ridging out of NW Russia, and a return to northern blocking, low pressure/trough action will either stay away, or unfortunately set up shop directly over us from the SW, much like this week...

 

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13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Beautiful runs this morning with temps widely in the 20s wed onwards, the only fly in the ointment is the meto update which is suggesting things break down through next weekend and into the new week, we' ll see..

Was posting chart, anyone know how to post charts on Microsoft Edge?


 

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