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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

Posted Images

Broadly speaking the ecm is not dissimilar to gfs, albeit the detail is different. It has the upper trough sliding south at the beginning of the weekend so the surface features fail to make any ingress vis the UK. Thus the latter ends up in a quite messy, slack gradient area, which weather wise would be great, dry and quite warm

ecm_z500_anom_natl_9.thumb.png.b588890a4c9710bb78130340d0e1a29e.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.4eb85273077d4f8aba4130d63be484d2.png

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Much more promising today - and even more so as yesterday the bulk of ensemble members didn't favour high pressure being dominant. Being picky it would be nice if the SE European trough pushed a bit further east allowing the high to move across slightly....but any high pressure over the UK in late spring/early summer will be pleasant enough. Finer details to be ironed out.

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I like the way UKMO is trending hopefully a sign of things to come later in the month

UKMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.2711fe49dc030634921bd51d03cbb2ea.pngUKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.b906f814acbe366379fdafe04907edc0.png

UKMO extended

ukm2.2017052600_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.517c0b07cc4d2fd481f8470b04cc45b4.png

Looks nice for anyone attending the RHS Chelsea flower show later next week if UKMO is on the money

Edited by Summer Sun
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There seems to be a bit of momentum gathering for a period of dry and warm weather for the UK in a week or so, the GEFS ens for manchester have flipped overnight, the precip ones in particular have dried out quite markedly, fingers crossed..

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41 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A hot and humid end to ECM - plenty of thunderstorms would develop from that

Recm2402.thumb.gif.b44b500db1201c30369c2a30f65bf322.gif

That is the kind of chart I want to see many times over a summer. 10 days away though, so of course we are all treating such charts as merely 'of interest', and won't have a massive tantrum when they change completely as time goes on, just like in winter. Aren't we? 

Edited by stainesbloke
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

A hot and humid end to ECM - plenty of thunderstorms would develop from that

Recm2402.thumb.gif.b44b500db1201c30369c2a30f65bf322.gif

I can't recall many occasions in times past where a trough has been west of Iberia in combination with an extensive area of high pressure centered near Svalbard.

It makes me wonder just how things would progress from there; usually an Iberian low drifts N and then moves over the ridge but that's because the ridge is usually to our east or southeast. With blocking to the NE the low may either get trapped over the UK (thundery showers merging into longer spells of at times thundery rain... not the best of outcomes!) or split away from the Atlantic and pay a visit to Central/Eastern Europe (now that would be interesting as warm, moist air continued to feed in from the SE without a full-on breakdown!).

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Is this called a Camborne clipper?

ECM0-240.GIF?19-12

Seriously though ... a very nice turnaround in the models over the past two days and at a fairly short time range. The weakness of the Atlantic meant that ridging from Iberia always had the chance to disrupt the pattern and push heights north in a favourable way and - voila!!

How warm it will get is extremely uncertain - seems delicately poised between a NE flow (good for me) and a S or SE flow (good for almost everyone else) - but the sun should have its hat on alot in the D4-D10 period, I think.

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Actually the timing of this may well be be quite fortuitous as the ext EPS and EC46 are indicating a fairly quick breakdown after the weekend with the first week of June being trough dominated and quite cool. :shok:

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Nice upgrades again if your looking for an early start to summer.:yahoo:

 

GFS playing catch up as usual.

 10/10 UKMO, was on the money again.:D

gfs-0-120.png

gfs-1-120.png

gfs-9-120.png

UN120-21.gif

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4 hours ago, knocker said:

Actually the timing of this may well be be quite fortuitous as the ext EPS and EC46 are indicating a fairly quick breakdown after the weekend with the first week of June being trough dominated and quite cool. :shok:

That would be the form horse imho not wanting to get suckered in by the models just yet.

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Now you're talking ...

gfs-0-192.png?12

Saw a lot of this type of thing late last summer, led to some great mini-heatwaves

By the way, forecast is for temps to go over 100F in Spain by the end of next week - a little variation on this chart could bring this direct from Spain to us and something not far off 90F in favoured spots :) 

OMG, don't do it MWB, we get enough of this type of ramping in the Winter months for Chrissake!:shok::blink2::D

 

ECM looking ok.

ECM1-144.gif

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16 minutes ago, comet said:

That would be the form horse imho not wanting to get suckered in by the models just yet.

That doesn't necessarily make the models wrong. At the moment it looks like the breakdown and the Atlantic trough making some inroads will be around the latter part of the weekend ( as illustrated by taking a snapshot of the GEFS this evening ) Quite knife edgy but this is over a week away and will no doubt be adjusted. The question is which way. In the meantime some very nice temps quite possible

gefs_z500a_nh_39.thumb.png.b5c7ad4151697765cd713b85a1cad2e5.pnggefs_t2ma_5d_eur_45.thumb.png.0cf6093e972f850aed4b04206d928e8b.png

 

Edited by knocker
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14 minutes ago, snowray said:

Oh my.....Come on ECM you can do it!:shok:

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-216.gif

Good charts, FI still, any plume could be delayed to Whit Tuesday, as plumes tend to arrive around midweek, good signs of improvement though as early as next Wed

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