Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    If this morning's GFS is right the south should see some decent rainfall in the next 10 days

    144-777UK.thumb.GIF.b4d2790806f97055f272315a6593ef0b.GIF240-777UK.thumb.GIF.2116e5b8de4ba21900801191426a063f.GIF

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 2.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

    Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

    So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    If this morning's GFS is right the south should see some decent rainfall in the next 10 days

    144-777UK.thumb.GIF.b4d2790806f97055f272315a6593ef0b.GIF240-777UK.thumb.GIF.2116e5b8de4ba21900801191426a063f.GIF

    Euro could produce several hours of heavy rainfall as well. 

    ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    3 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Euro could produce several hours of heavy rainfall as well. 

    ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

     

    A typical British chart with high pressure all around and low pressure stuck over the UK with nowhere to go

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The ECM ens isn't as unsettled as the Op is this morning at the end of the run

    ECU1-216.GIF?13-12ECU1-240.GIF?13-12

    EDU1-216.GIF?13-12EDU1-240.GIF?13-12

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    What an absolutely terrible ecm this morning! Extensive northern blocking and the green circle of doom sat over the UK.

    Its hard not to despair with our wretched climate it really is..

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    58 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    A repeat of 2012 is unlikely  imo

    It's a fair comment Mokidugway... But why?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    8 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

    It's a fair comment Mokidugway... But why?

    The GloSea model is going for above average heights for Summer as a whole issued on 11th May

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    28 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

    The GloSea model is going for above average heights for Summer as a whole issued on 11th May

    It doesn't show much signal for precipitation but it didn't in the previous very wet summers. I remember Gavin Partridge saying, in a video, these small patches of trapped low pressure were very difficult for the long range models to pick up. Supposedly a low solar signal and low ice pattern ... we have both at the moment.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    What an absolutely terrible ecm this morning! Extensive northern blocking and the green circle of doom sat over the UK.

    Its hard not to despair with our wretched climate it really is..

    Not bad for your location, it's the days before that, Midlands could be looking at 3 days of non stop rain, mon-wed, dry at night though

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Location: West Midlands
    3 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

    A repeat of 2012 is unlikely  imo

    Summer 2007 Poor, Summer 2012 Poor,  Summer 2017....???        You get the picture. :D

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Yes with the slow moving low just out west next week looks quite unsettled with most of us seeing some showers or rain.

    The T84hrs fax for Tuesday and the raw UK chart for T120hrs shows the expected picture with the UK under the influence of this upper trough for the coming week.

    fax84s.gif?1UW120-21.GIF?13-07

    I would think most of us will see some brighter periods but it will be a case of watching the daily forecasts to see where the best conditions may be day on day for outside activities,probably more of an April showers type feel in the coming days.

    This weather type looks like prevailing into next weekend on current outputs indeed looking at the ECM mean for day 7 shows only slow signs of any improvement as the upper trough takes it's time to move east.

    EDM1-168.GIF?13-12

    There are tentative signs of ridging trying to ease in from the Atlantic going into week 2 but maybe too early to say whether this could develop into a more settled period.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, Eugene said:

    Summer 2007 Poor, Summer 2012 Poor,  Summer 2017....???        You get the picture. :D

    Well, given that no two summers have ever been the same...I hope not, Eugene!:good:

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    28 minutes ago, Eugene said:

    Summer 2007 Poor, Summer 2012 Poor,  Summer 2017....???        You get the picture. :D

    Here they come, the mathematical climate wizards using maths to figure out when the next poor summer will be.  

    The climate isn't based on maths. It doesn't operate on 2's and 7's or any figure.  If that was possible I'm sure we could work out the next 200 years in just a few taps on a calculator.

     

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    1 minute ago, 40*C said:

    Here they come, the mathematical climate wizards using maths to figure out when the next poor summer will be.  

    The climate isn't based on maths. It doesn't operate on 2's and 7's or any figure.  If that was possible I'm sure we could work out the next 200 years in just a few taps on a calculator.

     

     

    The weather you get is not predictable but I've read plenty of science papers that show predictable cycles in climate. They're not necessarily sure of what drives them but they are visible in a variety of proxies.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dereham, Norfolk
  • Location: Dereham, Norfolk
    5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    A typical British chart with high pressure all around and low pressure stuck over the UK with nowhere to go

    good thing for southern areas though, we desperately need the rain

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Well no drought worries for a while if that 12 GFS run is close to the mark. Some nice slack LP systems in FI too which would promote some decent convection.

    gfsnh-0-276.png?12

    gfsnh-0-348.png?12

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Well no drought worries for a while if that 12 GFS run is close to the mark. Some nice slack LP systems in FI too which would promote some decent convection.

    gfsnh-0-276.png?12

    gfsnh-0-348.png?12

    Horrendous charts for heat lovers!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Horrendous charts for heat lovers!

    remember it's not summer yet though, very normal for May, really Summer dosen't start until mid July, more especially Aug and Sept

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Very true, but looking like the next 10 days at least will be wet and unsettled. The meto have consistently called for high pressure and dry/warm weather into early June..,,I'm not seeing it myself, but hopefully they are on to something.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Quite an intriguing gfs run which is paying some homage to the recent ecm runs. . The renewed amplification now sees the upper  trough tracking south becoming a cut off low south of the UK, as, at the same time, the high pressure ridges north east. On the surface this spawns a large, slack low pressure area over western Europe.

    gfs_z500a_natl_27.thumb.png.4fe5f4d7145bc73f14530830fe81dfb0.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.2d294a9892f06a6f102b683a422446c1.png

    From this area a more concentrated low develops with some quite cold air (relatively speaking) in the southern quadrant. :shok:

    gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_34.thumb.png.1202a44b2a941ed5544f40210ce1f2ab.png

    Edited by knocker
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...