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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    2 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

    Looking at charts it looks perfectly  excitable for a lot of the UK in the next few days.. SW winds  maybe showers now and then  but   plenty of nice weather.. So northwestsnow your being a bit pessimistic when there's no need

    It will be warmer at least:good:

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    Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

    Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

    So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds
    Just now, Summer 1976 said:

    It will be warmer at least:good:

    yeah its still around 17/18c  for my location on  Tuesday and Wednesday..in fact  we may have  better weather  than the south east.   they may get thunder storms on Tuesday..it may stay sunny  up here..Still time to change though. for the UK weather. never  ever simple with our climate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

    The ECM makes less of the trough influence and HP slightly towards the SSE rather than further west like UKMO:)

    The ECM is a lot better, as it has been for the last few runs- small details will make a big difference.

    Looks like a nice southerly developing for Wednesday if the ECM is correct.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Yes Ecm is certainly better than ukmo/gfs for those of us wanting warm weather.Cant see the ridge sustaining though at 168 , i would hazard a guess at temps into the 20's for the south tues and possibly wed next week if ecm is correct.

    In reference to my earlier post that gfs is poor for those away from the SE i stand by it..

    Grrrr and by 192 we have a greeny high and the jet slipping south, still warm in the SE but i fear its the green circle of doom that will be taking over thereaftrr..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I wouldn't take the GFS at face value at all- it's been chopping and changing a lot over the last few days. 192 hrs is way too far out.

    The UKMO only goes out to 144 hrs but I'm sure it would show a better chart for Wednesday if it went out that far.

    I do take your point that in NW England we may struggle cloud wise if the flow ends up being from the SW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    You only have to glance at the differences between the gfs and ecm post about T120 to have little confidence in the evolution after that. At T144 they both have the main depression south west of Iceland but the ecm has it much deeper. By T192 the gfs has it filling and east of Iceland whilst the ecm has it filling about 600k west of Ireland. The latter solution initiates some brief WAA in the southerly drift but don't bet the house on it.

    ecm_t850_uv_natl_9.thumb.png.923ef4e52b48e801eb6a0ad7629f0e8d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    56 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    I wouldn't take the GFS at face value at all- it's been chopping and changing a lot over the last few days. 192 hrs is way too far out.

    The UKMO only goes out to 144 hrs but I'm sure it would show a better chart for Wednesday if it went out that far.

    I do take your point that in NW England we may struggle cloud wise if the flow ends up being from the SW.

     

    UKMO for next Wednesday

    ukm2.2017051700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.08bd81fb89248d1a9f5e02e26eb75ed5.png

    t144

    ukm2.2017051600_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3d7dc46ca6e23bdd1dd1b885827244a2.png

    ECM t144 and 168

    ecm2.2017051600_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.cb1f2fffaa5911008cbe8084f484a0e9.pngecm2.2017051700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.255381665b9f70bbe8e2e221b4371fe8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    The ECM mean is far closer to the GFS op than the ECM op by D9/D10

    gfs-0-240.png  EDM1-240.GIF?10-12

    Suggests to me the GFS idea of flattening things after T144 is not unrealistic - in fact, for northern areas it is sadly reminiscent of last summer - promised warmth from the south falling short.

    Longer term, though, much better prospects for summery weather on the GFS rather than ECM - the latter would lock us into a low-pressure track (see below)

    ECM1-240.GIF?10-12

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    It's nice to start and see charts which start and resemble late spring rather than winter

    UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.95e2f73a731341ea631091ec08a9e4af.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.d0ddd42466501f5eacd3c3bc4efa31ed.png

    :)

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Does anyone have a chart for Sunday please as we are doing a Boot Fair run :) And also hoping to go out for a picnic! So far we are looking towards Monday and Tuesday

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    32 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

    Does anyone have a chart for Sunday please as we are doing a Boot Fair run :) And also hoping to go out for a picnic! So far we are looking towards Monday and Tuesday

    Hi, this is UKMO from this morning the 12z update *should* be available around 20:30

    ukm2.2017051412_108_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.32d7758a688de9c05d15e82e08c46b07.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    36 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

    Does anyone have a chart for Sunday please as we are doing a Boot Fair run :) And also hoping to go out for a picnic! So far we are looking towards Monday and Tuesday

    According to the gfs Sunday looking okay but Monday has a front tracking NE but that wouldn't impact Kent that much apart from cloud.

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_17.thumb.png.c3fd9a08a94a34bbf503b7bf510d8108.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

    Thank you to both of you! :) 

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Low pressure to the west and small associated lows to the south west/south are the dominate feature of the the weather for the next three or four days. These shallow low(s) and fronts move north over the next couple of days bringing some thundery rain to the south a further north. This will no doubt be covered in more detail elsewhere so just the latest fax charts.

    PPVA89.thumb.gif.16d020f130db95a7830f3d73febab66a.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.0f1bd0a3341b7c9f20a318bfcb621e0a.gif

    The main, complex, area of low pressure wanders around in the Atlantic continuing to be topped up by troughs tracking east from the US, which leads to surface lows also tracking north east but the associated fronts will impact the north west of the UK bringing some rain by Monday.

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_18.thumb.png.8cad55b07a8d22ed7be84a895a2e3788.png

    This heralds the beginning of a pattern change ( the anomalies last night were indicating some renewed amplification with pressure rising in mid Atlantic and the trough further east) with the trough drifting north east to be east of Iceland whilst the pressure does indeed build in the Atlantic and influencing also the southern half of the UK

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.7aab6569898ab41b786f85a0077310da.png

    This really brings us back to very familiar set up with interaction between the high pressure and troughs tracking east/south east around it mainly affecting the north of the UK.

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_38.thumb.png.de807d703f560154ae0f620ecb82cfd8.png

    To sum up next week. Mainly dry in the south as high pressure becomes more influential. Initially quite warm with temps above average, but cooler as the week progresses, particularly in the north that will affected by the systems winging around the HP and thus will receive the concentration of any rain

    gfs_tprecip_uk2_38.thumb.png.fabdcfd71e37efd444e99333b56830d7.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    There are still major differences vis the evolution between the gfs and the ecm post T144 so it would be wise to approach the various solutions with low confidence.

    At T144 the ecm has the main Atlantic depression 984mb south of Iceland whereas the gfs has east of Iceland 992mb and this is really the start of the rot.From here the ecm tracks it SE and slowly fills so that by T186 it is just north of Scotland but this is also accompanied by strong ridging in mid Atlantic.This turns into a blocked scenario with low pressure over the UK and NW Europe with a fair bit of instability and showery activity. But to reiterate...low confidence in the evolution at that range.

    ecm_mslp_uv850_eur_9.thumb.png.9a4cb29a920d9bd689de69d6431c4080.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere in the south hits 25c early next week

    ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.534966901cbe5e6f8f86b7cf24874d0a.png456456.thumb.png.6cc63f3bb5af0622acedc8a7a54ce951.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The BBC agree Summer Sun - they fancy a 25c in the south early/mid next week. Looks like it may only last 2/3 days, but this early in the season it's still a boost.

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    Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
    3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    The BBC agree Summer Sun - they fancy a 25c in the south early/mid next week. Looks like it may only last 2/3 days, but this early in the season it's still a boost.

     

     

    We were supposed to have hit 20+ plus last week......................................

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    4 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    The BBC agree Summer Sun - they fancy a 25c in the south early/mid next week. Looks like it may only last 2/3 days, but this early in the season it's still a boost.

    I think they're over cooking for the South at 25C, and under cooking it for the North with 15C.   

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    11 minutes ago, Eugene said:

    Heatwave next week?...... Not if UKMO 12Z wants anything to do with it. :D

    Not much has changed really it was only forecast to be 2 or 3 days early next week where the south could hit the mid 20s but temps always that bit lower the further north and west you go before turning fresher more widely from the west still looks that way to me

    U96-21UK.thumb.GIF.b22bfd4e0e69620ad115804dc0a8fc42.GIFU120-21UK.thumb.GIF.87969beb6101eb88cd793d894e5f622e.GIFU144-21UK.thumb.GIF.fefde41252cdf297bc892ddb48233b0b.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    22 minutes ago, Eugene said:

    Heatwave next week?...... Not if UKMO 12Z wants anything to do with it. :D

    I think the SE might hit the low 20s for a couple of days but north of Birmingham it doesnt look to clever..

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