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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Last night's GEFS and EPS anomalies were much more in agreement as to the positions of the trough and ridging of the HP  They both indicate a W/WSW upper flow suggesting a N/S split over the UK with a much more interactive pattern vis the cooler and warm air

    ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.dee88ea936686d759f78aa4a276e5178.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.9f4a2f0874aca131303ac114204f52fa.png

    And so to this morning's gfs. The expected retrogression of the high pressure to be replaced by the trough in the eastern Atlantic occurs quite quickly and by 12z Friday we have this position. It really marks the beginning of the next phase of the pattern evolution which is much more fluid than what we have been experiencing recently. As can be sen shallow depressions form in the southern flank of the main trough and track roughly NE bringing some showery rain to the UK with temps generally a little above average.

    gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.a8ef680b13439c098634ee384f173489.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.2a8d38e8115887b8bb2ba1734c81c9b5.png

    Following on from this a weak front traverses the UK over the weekend  and then early next sees increased amplification and the surge of the high pressure north introducing some quite warm air into the UK which heralds the start of the aforementioned battle  between the ridging of the HP and the trough/energy tracking east from upstream and thus a much more fluid pattern and the tendency towards a north south split with systems tracking NE and the southern half of Britain remaining dry.

    gfs_z500a_natl_31.thumb.png.5c0f6c56995c9c71cf21322ef763357f.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.c36827eac47620304925c2d58d5f2905.png

    This is illustrated quite well during the week with the next depression tracking north east to be north of Scotland by Thursday. Not too much point in going into detail at this stage as small variations in the analysis will make for some significant changes next week and it will probable be a little time before the det runs reach a fair agreement on the detail. So to sum up. A fairly mobile pattern is quite likely with sporadic rain mainly affecting the north with temps rising and generally a little above average.

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_37.thumb.png.7025c4399d70ed8d1c79927e106e6d1e.png

     

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    Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

    Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

    So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 hour ago, knocker said:

    Last night's GEFS and EPS anomalies were much more in agreement as to the positions of the trough and ridging of the HP  They both indicate a W/WSW upper flow suggesting a N/S split over the UK with a much more interactive pattern vis the cooler and warm air

    ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.dee88ea936686d759f78aa4a276e5178.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.9f4a2f0874aca131303ac114204f52fa.png

    And so to this morning's gfs. The expected retrogression of the high pressure to be replaced by the trough in the eastern Atlantic occurs quite quickly and by 12z Friday we have this position. It really marks the beginning of the next phase of the pattern evolution which is much more fluid than what we have been experiencing recently. As can be sen shallow depressions form in the southern flank of the main trough and track roughly NE bringing some showery rain to the UK with temps generally a little above average.

    gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.a8ef680b13439c098634ee384f173489.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.2a8d38e8115887b8bb2ba1734c81c9b5.png

    Following on from this a weak front traverses the UK over the weekend  and then early next sees increased amplification and the surge of the high pressure north introducing some quite warm air into the UK which heralds the start of the aforementioned battle  between the ridging of the HP and the trough/energy tracking east from upstream and thus a much more fluid pattern and the tendency towards a north south split with systems tracking NE and the southern half of Britain remaining dry.

    gfs_z500a_natl_31.thumb.png.5c0f6c56995c9c71cf21322ef763357f.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.c36827eac47620304925c2d58d5f2905.png

    This is illustrated quite well during the week with the next depression tracking north east to be north of Scotland by Thursday. Not too much point in going into detail at this stage as small variations in the analysis will make for some significant changes next week and it will probable be a little time before the det runs reach a fair agreement on the detail. So to sum up. A fairly mobile pattern is quite likely with sporadic rain mainly affecting the north with temps rising and generally a little above average.

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_37.thumb.png.7025c4399d70ed8d1c79927e106e6d1e.png

     

    Thank goodness for that, Malcolm. The change cannot come soon enough!:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM shows the warmer air moving across the UK as we move through next week not much rain away from the north-west either

    ECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.68192d0002208aef78ff2b21a456f047.pngECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.2c143feca4ab16b98ad3854a0a4dfe85.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.dc112715992816f7c7cf14b4f46859fe.pngECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.5970ddd1b9ef3dbe4f512819492e6604.png

    A stormier end

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.e8a3bbaf4ebefcf5b8540d8d7ae79d8a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Of course in this neck of the woods Pete, apart from Saturday, it's been a great spell of weather and Sidney has grown a tad.

    On Friday the ecm has a lot of convective activity in France and the UK, perhaps thundery?, before moving on and illustrating how far the evolution for next week is a long way from being anywhere near nailed on ending with this differences at day ten. Probably a watching brief for post the weekend is the best advice.

    ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.cf3e34c48aca4937b9159d66e681393c.pngSidney.thumb.jpg.3886795835a5b3b3a166fcbb13b6d93d.jpg

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Yeah, much better SS, sick of this vile easterly, worse today, cold and no sun

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Increasing rainfall in the west over the next 10 days but still very dry in the east

    240-06.thumb.GIF.3949075e045d18e51e6f1b0fd9ca63e0.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    A bit more agreement that a warm blast may be involving Tue/Wed/Thu next week before things break down somewhat from the west. How much of a southerly component can we draw? It looks like at the moment somewhere in the SE could see something in the 23-25c range, though this is very much up in the air.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    A bit more agreement that a warm blast may be involving Tue/Wed/Thu next week before things break down somewhat from the west. How much of a southerly component can we draw? It looks like at the moment somewhere in the SE could see something in the 23-25c range, though this is very much up in the air.

    hope it happens, as last 2 years, warm blasts have been timed for Tue-Thur

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    hope it happens, as last 2 years, warm blasts have been timed for Tue-Thur

    Yep, same same. Would be nice to have an equal length of warm sun here as the vile cold gloom currently. ECM best for warmth and longevity thereof.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
    2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    Increasing rainfall in the west over the next 10 days but still very dry in the east

    240-06.thumb.GIF.3949075e045d18e51e6f1b0fd9ca63e0.GIF

    Going from that chart, SS, I wouldn't say "very dry".  Away from coast of EA, we are talking about 12-30 mm on the eastern side of England, which is maybe a touch below average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Going into next week UKMO keeps the center of the low to the north-west so any rain should be restricted to the north-west

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.83733307411ac664a45ca703e9c30bfe.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Not a very appealing 12z GFS - esp the further north and west one heads.

    Hoping ECM keeps the faith but its beginning to look like a blink and miss it affair(plume) for most away from the SE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Once again the ECM 12Z looks a lot better than the GFS- let's hope the GFS is being too progressive in bringing low pressure across the north of the UK. The high is much more favourably positioned on the ECM out to 192hrs. It's actually much better than this morning's run for Wednesday, with most of the UK joining in the sunshine I imagine in this scenario.

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

    Low to mid 20s possible right across the country looking at that chart I reckon.

    For Tuesday it also looks better than the GFS- there is still a bit of a NW/SE split with more cloud across the north and west I imagine. Good for eastern areas in particular:

    ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Not bad at all from ECM for the first half of next week much improved for the eastern side with any rain really just in the NW

    ECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.ccbfff9f0ebd6b373dab8444f9cf5d85.pngECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.67ba47af0da03b398d08193af4cde2b9.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.493adc8d6570baa27174b64b658f69bc.png

    Gradually turning fresher from the west into the 2nd half of the  week

    ECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.8ae2e53b8ff494cf336f9e0644d6e947.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Perhaps signs we may see a more fluid mobile pattern next week, with heights trying to ridge in from the SW, but the upper trough becoming a more robust feature to the NW and would most likely push the ridge aside, brushing SE parts only. The NW would see bouts of rain or showers and possibly heavy at times.

    Tomorrow looks like being a superb day nationwide, wall to wall sunshine and light winds - make the most of it.

     

    Could someone post recent AO/NAO values, suspect they have been very negative.

    A word on last night, Shap got down to -5 degrees, colder than most places recorded all winter! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Perhaps signs we may see a more fluid mobile pattern next week, with heights trying to ridge in from the SW, but the upper trough becoming a more robust feature to the NW and would most likely push the ridge aside, brushing SE parts only. The NW would see bouts of rain or showers and possibly heavy at times.

    Tomorrow looks like being a superb day nationwide, wall to wall sunshine and light winds - make the most of it.

     

    Could someone post recent AO/NAO values, suspect they have been very negative.

    A word on last night, Shap got down to -5 degrees, colder than most places recorded all winter! 

    Just about record negative values

    ecmwf_nao_bias.thumb.png.8bd6cba3328a2013d36b692a6da14402.pnggfs_nao_bias.thumb.png.b7843e5ce7031e34fbd21a7977a4ac2b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    H/t Anthony Masiello‏

    First week of Reanalysis NAO plotted. Monthly low record already set on 5/7 and it will likely continue into next couple of days.

    NAO.thumb.jpg.e1e18df59831c988d36b370a2274d5fc.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    13 minutes ago, knocker said:

    H/t Anthony Masiello‏

    First week of Reanalysis NAO plotted. Monthly low record already set on 5/7 and it will likely continue into next couple of days.

    NAO.thumb.jpg.e1e18df59831c988d36b370a2274d5fc.jpg

    Doesnt this correlate to next winters index or am i misunderstanding this?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    4 minutes ago, Summer 1976 said:

    Doesnt this correlate to next winters index or am i misunderstanding this?

    I did read something about the 2010/2011 winter in that regard. May have been on here with the strat experts. Something about the rapid and abrupt break up of the winter PV (2010) imprinting on the early winter vortex of the next season (2010/2011). Though I'm not 100% sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

    Seems like a bit of a chimera of theories. The UKMO May SSTA link? and surely it is the AO that is implicated in the polar vortex break up. There has been some mention of the end state of winter being likely to reoccur at the beginning of the next one ... something to do with low Arctic ice influence, if I got the gist right.

    Edited by Gael_Force
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Last night's anomalies all showed low pressure over N. Russia with associated trough to the NW of the UK with ridging adjacent to the latter. Thus a W/WSW upper flow over the UK portending a N/S split and depending how the cool/warm air interacts during the period will determine the extent of the influence of the high pressure. At the moment suffice it to say, as a general comment, the south remaining pretty dry with any Atlantic systems tracking north east with the associated unsettled weather. Something for the det. runs to sort.

    ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.820794495b99dbb00a62b9a484c8b059.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.72dd369ae892ba55844041ab38476f66.png610day_03.thumb.gif.fc383dabdbe5f2c8ce67fa38efa00788.gif

    This morning's gfs sees the pattern change completed with the high pressure that has so dominated recent proceedings now over NE canada and the trough in charge in the eastern Atlantic. Thus by Saturday we have shallow depressions travelling around in the main circulation and impacting the north of the country whilst a weak front also tracks north east on Sunday. Thus the introduction of more unsettled conditions with some showery rain and temps around average in a general SW airstream.

    gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.bdc502b192154a26d86991ee624201f7.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.1752fccb65cca740e5f38215c197fb4f.png

    This set up continues into the beginning of next week with the main trough being 'topped' up by systems tracking east from the US but it gradually fills and slides north east as pressure builds in the Atlantic and from the south of the UK. Albeit the unsettled weather still prevailing in the north but warmer air is beginning to make an impact further south Thus the battle between the cool/warmer air is underway for the rest of the week, very much as indicated by the anomalies,

    gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.f4185731b3a7d5fcce5ed22cdf7a76f1.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_40.thumb.png.842a10ad483ead44d9b8421e7ed33319.png

     

    .

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Well for those of us away from the SE better make the most of today and tomorrow, after that it looks poor for warm settled weather with a familiar N/S split on the cards...

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

    Looking at charts it looks perfectly  excitable for a lot of the UK in the next few days.. SW winds  maybe showers now and then  but   plenty of nice weather.. So northwestsnow your being a bit pessimistic when there's no need

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    Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Well for those of us away from the SE better make the most of today and tomorrow, after that it looks poor for warm settled weather with a familiar N/S split on the cards...

    Yes UKMO going for a more tropical SW next week so the chances of a dry Southerly looks like its gone. 

    IMG_1153.PNG

    IMG_1154.PNG

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