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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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1 minute ago, Steve Thexton said:

GFS is a joke beyond about 180hrs 

I agree but I honestly think on this occasion the Gfs is right about high pressure taking control after the changeable / unsettled spell during this weekend and most of next week.

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Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello 18th Dec 2010 in mid March 2017.

gfsnh-0-348_aii3.pngUrlAdvisorGoodImage.png

 

And the uppers ARE comparable - even heading south across the whole country, which is proof you can get a good cold spell for over half the year rather than just the winter.

A chart predicting something over half a month away is 'proof'.  What planet are you on? lol

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30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I've given up on arctic plunges in deepest  fantasy island..would rather see a warm plume or a big fat high sat on top of the uk.

I'm not sure why you would ever have faith in them at that range in the first place to be honest.

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Just now, Optimus Prime said:

A chart predicting something over half a month away is 'proof'.  What planet are you on? lol

Anything that is shown within the NWP is theoretically possible, regardless of the timeframes involved. So yes, it's proof that the back end of March can deliver wintry conditions (with uppers comparable to Dec 2010). Don't know why you have tried to show him up there?

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello 18th Dec 2010 in mid March 2017.

gfsnh-0-348_aii3.png

 

And the uppers ARE comparable - even heading south across the whole country, which is proof you can get a good cold spell for over half the year rather than just the winter.

its not mid march though..that chart is for 29th March...looks good for Scottish ski resorts..just dry and a bit chilly for England and Wales

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Anything that is shown within the NWP is theoretically possible, regardless of the timeframes involved. So yes, it's proof that the back end of March can deliver wintry conditions (with uppers comparable to Dec 2010). Don't know why you have tried to show him up there?

So something that's theoretically possible is proof. Ok lol I won't say anymore.

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8 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

I'm not sure why you would ever have faith in them at that range in the first place to be honest.

I never have faith at that range..only hope.

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2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

So something that's theoretically possible is proof. Ok lol I won't say anymore.

Do you know how NWP works?

We have seen such wintry spells in March before...we have historical evidence...some of such from just 4 years ago. This allied to the fact a solid maths based model can churn out such scenarios is proof enough for me. Don't know what else you require?

You're arguing over nothing and to pick him up on something so trivial was just pointless.

Edited by CreweCold
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31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Do you know how NWP works?

We have seen such wintry spells in March before...we have historical evidence...some of such from just 4 years ago. This allied to the fact a solid maths based model can churn out such scenarios is proof enough for me. Don't know what else you require?

You're arguing over nothing and to pick him up on something so trivial was just pointless.

I'm arguing? I'm pointing out something you don't agree with. It's a simulation, it isn't proof. If that ever did hit the higher res the outcome wouldn't be the same. And yes I do know what NWP is.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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27 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

I'm arguing? I'm pointing out something you don't agree with. It's a simulation, it isn't proof. If that ever did hit the higher res the outcome wouldn't be the same. And yes I do know what NWP is.

Brilliant, subject closed then :)

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Best chart from the Ecm 12z is tomorrow with high pressure in control with a mild day bringing bright / sunny spells in the east and south, thereafter it's more changeable and trending more unsettled, especially by early next week..pretty cool too by next week.

24_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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GFS shows an improving situation at +192 with high pressure building towards the UK:

image.thumb.png.36076690b8bacd3e4ba71cbdcbdd442f.png

ECM has very different ideas though:

image.thumb.gif.ca31c903dd503552273ff93eeaece9be.gif

Just 8 days away and yet quite a contrast between the two models.  Which one to believe?  :cc_confused: 

Perhaps they are both wrong - seems the most likely to me!  

:fool:

 

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6 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

GFS shows an improving situation at +192 with high pressure building towards the UK:

image.thumb.png.36076690b8bacd3e4ba71cbdcbdd442f.png

ECM has very different ideas though:

image.thumb.gif.ca31c903dd503552273ff93eeaece9be.gif

Just 8 days away and yet quite a contrast between the two models.  Which one to believe?  :cc_confused: 

Perhaps they are both wrong - seems the most likely to me!  

:fool:

 

I fancy a middle ground scenario is more likely, n / s split.:D

Edited by Frosty.
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31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

You'll be aware of your own mutterings then. 

Brilliant, subject closed then :)

Coming from someone who was constantly commenting on about how March this year was looking to bear similarities to March 2013, back in early Feb. You don't own the model discussion thread, we can all judge/scrutinise what other people say if we like, it's a public forum. It was initially a light prod that you went and turned into something more.


And I wasn't even quoting one of your posts! Lol

Subject closed as you wish.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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16 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

GFS shows an improving situation at +192 with high pressure building towards the UK:

image.thumb.png.36076690b8bacd3e4ba71cbdcbdd442f.png

ECM has very different ideas though:

image.thumb.gif.ca31c903dd503552273ff93eeaece9be.gif

Just 8 days away and yet quite a contrast between the two models.  Which one to believe?  :cc_confused: 

Perhaps they are both wrong - seems the most likely to me!  

:fool:

 

It did something similar this morning. To me it appears that at T168 the GFS is disrupting the upper trough to the west initiating a cut off upper low over Spain an Azores ridging strongly behind. The ecm is having none of this with too much energy running around the HP and maintaining the upper trough over the UK for a time before it's forced SE by the east European block and ridging to the west allowed to progress. Thus the introduction of the Azores ridging is later.

Edited by knocker
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28 minutes ago, knocker said:

It did something similar this morning. To me it appears that at T168 the GFS is disrupting the upper trough to the west initiating a cut off upper low over Spain an Azores ridging strongly behind. The ecm is having none of this with too much energy running around the HP and maintaining the upper trough over the UK for a time before it's forced SE by the east European block and ridging to the west allowed to progress. Thus the introduction of the Azores ridging is later.

Your ability to explain the models in this way is a great help to those like me who are still learning to interpret the output.  To my own inexperienced eye, though, the ECM looks more likely to get it right unfortunately.  I will be happy if the Azores high is able to establish itself more in our area by the end of the month to give Spring a kick up the xxxx in my part of the world. It's been far too damp and cloudy up to now.

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This link from Matt H is well worth a read using various charts to explain what the probabilities of weather is in the very near and more distant time slots.

Using the anomaly charts, is still not really clear what the 500 mb flow will be in 6-10 days time or further out. However, NOAA is reasonably consistent with itself and does suggest that within a week we will be seeing a 500 mb flow from amore NW'ly direction bring rather cold conditions. ECMWF is, this morning, not a million miles from a similar suggestion but GFS is fairly different. For cold fans, it may be worth watching how this playes out over and beyond this weekend. With the Jet-stream pretty likely to be over the UK it does look like being an interesting week or so model watching. Personally I hope the idea of a southern UK ridge wins as dry and warmth are what I would like now.

Anyway the usual links below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Remember late April last year? That day of the Arctic plunge produced one of the best days of weather in my weather memory. It had everything- hail, sleet, snow, thunder and some beautiful cloudscapes. 

We've had months and months now of a mainly HP dominated weather pattern. Time for a change now.

Completely agree, HP is just giving us mainly cloudy skies like it did today, time for something alot more interesting, don't get why people love temps around 14C when you can get those kind of temps anytime of year in the UK, best to take advantage of cold arctic airmasses over greenland before they retreat for the summer, waiting until November for another cold spell when March on average is the fourth coldest month of the year is depressing, not sure why some are happy with ECM 12Z, latter stages would just bring dull chilly days, easterlies aren't great in Spring with a cold North Sea even if its above average.

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Looking at the ECM ens Saturday should see a lull for many once the initial band of rain slowly moves NW to SE during Friday

ECMAVGEU12_72_1.thumb.png.2b7d42aff7042c84cc32dcf7ed1ffd5b.pngECMAVGEU12_96_1.thumb.png.fa2f6c6b8a83868fd5462eb9626125ce.png

By Sunday another spell of wind and rain looks likely as the low gets a bit closer most persistent in the west once it clears through early on but anywhere could see some showers during the day

ECMAVGEU12_120_1.thumb.png.595e66f4f16aa82b5586797374e6e327.png

Temps not far off the seasonal average over the weekend but feeling cooler than of late in the wind

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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The EPS mean 8-13 anomaly, post the unsettled spell,  continues to  indicate a strong vortex over the Pole with associated trough in the NW Atlantic and in eastern Atlantic heights building to the north of the UK with the upper trough to the south.This would portend pretty much inertia with a very slack pressure area from Scotland down to Spain. It will be interesting to see how this evolves  The GEFS for the same period is along the same lines but varies with the detail with different orientation of the ridge for one thing.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.0500e2087359ac91668dbc4a07dca51f.png

Edited by knocker
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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

 

Personally I hope the idea of a southern UK ridge wins as dry and warmth are what I would like now.

 

Fully agree, I'm ready for some proper warm and settled weather, especially after the upcoming Atlantic dross.

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This evenings GEFS 12z mean upgrades the azores high's influence on the uk compared to the 6z from around day 9 onwards..late March could be very pleasant with high pressure in charge..especially for the southern half of the BI..fingers crossed.

21_216_500mb.png

21_240_500mb.png

21_264_500mb.png

21_288_500mb.png

21_312_500mb.png

21_336_500mb.png

21_384_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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