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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

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41 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

26c in SE England academic I know but Ben Nevis sumit is showing -2c and snow showers,that is some 28c difference 

C.S. 

Did we hit 26c anywhere then? Turned breezy here now just got back from Erith pier but still very sunny and a mild wind that one might expect in mid summer, no doubt they were sunbathing in Skegness and Southend as if they were on the South of France today, they certainly were around here, south coast was cooler by the look of things.

 

All change next week on the 12z, could do with some rain though.:)

 

 

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Edited by snowray

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Well what can I say? We struggled to get uppers as low as this throughout most of the winter

gfsnh-1-186.png?12

A bit of a nudge west of that high and we'd be looking at some decent polar based convection

gfsnh-0-180.png?12

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well what can I say? We struggled to get uppers as low as this throughout most of the winter

gfsnh-1-186.png?12

A bit of a nudge west of that high and we'd be looking at some decent polar based convection

gfsnh-0-180.png?12

Indeed, and what a difference a week makes, even the SE gets some of the white stuff by next Sunday night on this run.

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UKMO looking possibly even better if you are liking the idea of a white Easter.:santa-emoji:

UW144-21.GIF

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Well apparently  easter is traditionally colder than xmas...although I think  the gfs ensembles is overdoing the average  a tad...

 

 

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Edited by KTtom
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According to the GEFS 12z mean the Easter holiday weekend weather deteriorates after a decent Good Friday in the south. It becomes more unsettled, windy and colder.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Around easter Monday looks to be the peak for the lowest 850's after this we see a slow recovery though I doubt we'll be seeing temps of 25c for a wee while

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.ee07780510754fc97ebaf8bcb326225c.png

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It's been so warm for early April today esp for central/east midlands that even average temps are going to feel much colder, a 10C temperature drop by tomorrow even higher for the east/se.  :cold:

Having trouble with the charts on wetterzentrale but just checked meteociel and it looks like northern britain could see some of the white stuff by Easter Monday April 17th, looks like a northerly sourced spell of weather for a few weeks at least, don't mind colder weather, keeps a lid on those loud anti social types. :D

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On 3/31/2017 at 09:52, Man With Beard said:

GEM offers support to the ECM as well - looks BBQ ish, in fact

gem-0-192.png?00

Interesting looking at the ECM monthly out to D18. The D4-D10 period looks nailed on for heights centred over the south and well above average temps for all:

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017033000_02  ec-ens_nat_taem_msl_t850_anom_2017033000

But the D11-D18 flips to more of a GEFS style scenario. The temp anomoly doesn't look far off average but I'd guess the set-up would support a few very cold days for the time of year:

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017033000_04  ec-ens_nat_taem_msl_t850_anom_2017033000

GEFS D15 heights anomoly is not exactly the same but you can see a sort of resemblance

gens-21-5-360.png

A white Scottish Easter coming up, perhaps??

Well that worked out pretty well! I thought I might get a few critical comments for suggesting 25C was possible ten days ago, so glad to see that work out too!!

Good work EC monthly/GEFS means!! About time!

Beyond Easter weekend, well, you can well imagine this ridge to our west moving in shortly after

ECM1-192.GIF?09-0

IMBY, very upbeat about the weather coming up, a NWly in April can be quite decent in the sun down here!!

 

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Easter Monday could be quite a nice day the further west you are in any sunshine as pressure begins to rise again

ECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.263d648c84b0652880dac3efe9abb12e.png

Before that a chilly start to easter it might be a plant planting weekend as thing stand

ECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.cc52e013697a1c402b336497cf5a216f.pngECMOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.9803e3e46147c0491e2f1287bfd7e841.png

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The Ecm 12z shows an increasingly cold and unsettled Easter Holiday weekend..much different to this weekend..understatement:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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The Ecm 12z ends cold and unsettled, I'm sure there would be some snow around on hills next weekend, especially further north as well as frosty, icy nights and good news for Easter skiing on the scottish mountains.

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Edited by Frosty.
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So folks , would you call this chart "COOL" or "COLD" ????:rofl:cool.thumb.png.56e2264d9e0053f055640e4b055d1c39.png

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Evening All! The  BBC has said tonight that sleet and snow will be falling across Scotland tomorrow and they say a cool down? What are they on ?:rofl: Get them out of there studio:rofl: This coming week will feel "COLD" As for the Easter period , this could well turn out to be the coldest Easter on record? BBC/METOFFICE  are like a Chocalate teapot:rofl:

 

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A quick look at the anomalies for the 10-15 confirms what they have been indicating for a couple of days and that is the amplification with strong ridging to the west of the UK, Thus next week could well see the upper flow veer northerly with temps a a fair bit below average, Can't post the EPS but it agrees with the others and the middle of next week has the surface high west of Ireland and 850mb temps in the -5C in the northerly

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.e9d4f6790265215d0224a141246b4a77.png814day_03.thumb.gif.f7e9d45b68be499dd7db9e92a8be0a92.gif

 

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ens mean pretty much mirrors the operational with regards to the Easter period..i.e..becoming unsettled and colder and during week 2 it stays chilly with high pressure to the west and low to the east / northeast..day to day ebb and flow determining surface conditions.

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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All! The  BBC has said tonight that sleet and snow will be falling across Scotland tomorrow and they say a cool down? What are they on ?:rofl: Get them out of there studio:rofl: This coming week will feel "COLD" As for the Easter period , this could well turn out to be the coldest Easter on record? BBC/METOFFICE  are like a Chocalate teapot:rofl:

 

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There's a bit of a way to go for the coldest easter! That was -12.5c in Braemar on 31st March 2013 :shok:

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This morning's gfs run.

Wednesday midnight sees the main low Faeroes en route east and a weak front tracking south east during the day. And so on to Easter.

After brief ridging Friday sees the next low just south of Iceland and associated fronts already impacting the north whilst the south remains under the auspices of the hogh pressure, temps around average.The trough tracks ESE and by 12z Saturday is in the north of the North Sea and the wind has veered NW but still mainly effecting the norther half of the country where wtemps will be a tad below average with the south still remaining predominately dry.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.thumb.png.ceac76e2e96960b603581aa435570169.png

From this point there is a fairly rapid transition and in the next 18 hours the low tracks south east into Denmark veering the surface flow northerly, introducing cooler air to all of the UK, with showers in the north and east, before the high pressure cell slides in from the west.

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_26.thumb.png.072b73cec4d98fa588a29ce73cc4419c.png

The high cell continues to slide east, albeit quite slowly, so Monday looks like being a benign quite pleasant day (according to this of course) before the next upper trough arrives Wednesday midnight and the fun really begins with the previously indicated surge of the amplification and strong ridging to the west.

gfs_z500a_natl_37.thumb.png.f0e89a2442e6450f416359c2f2a9ba3f.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_37.thumb.png.fccba2e6bbf4ee120d165acf8ceb005b.png

 

From this point the trough tracks south down the North Sea introducing much colder air into the UK but the detail obviously best left at this time.

EDIT

And this morning's GEFS anomalies continuing to support the above

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.33362443184b3991ca690ae83b239c6d.png

Edited by knocker
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Saturday midnight the ecm has the low just east of the Faeroes with rain into the north so not dissimilar to the gfs. 24 hours later it is just east of southern Norway with Azores starting to edge in from the south west. Again not a million miles from the gfs. It then diverges significantly from the latter by developing a shortwave in the circulation of the depression way out west which tracks very quickly east to phase in with the circulation of the low to the east and traverse central England later on Sunday. Thus some rain and temps hovering around average.

This quickly departs east to allow ridging into the UK on Monday This quickly gives away as the next depression steams in from the west and the associated fronts impact the north Tuesday morning. The amplification to the west then gets underway. Pick the bones out of that but it's obvious the place to be over Easter is in the south west with Sidney.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.e91046e4127894608284c8168dd988e5.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.0289d1d3312b090cad0389e2e45fb437.png58eb2fb27fa8d_sid5.thumb.jpg.02f8d6a1a4fa98e29397128ce95f7e0c.jpg

Edited by knocker
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The EPS 850mb mean

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_9.thumb.png.0c37c9ea65950a6e3632fccb88295dfd.png

EDIT

The EPS still looking at the high pressure setting up to the west next week and thus a cool northerly.

 

Edited by knocker
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26 minutes ago, knocker said:

The EPS 850mb mean

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_9.thumb.png.0c37c9ea65950a6e3632fccb88295dfd.png

EDIT

The EPS still looking at the high pressure setting up to the west next week and thus a cool northerly.

 

Not that bad for the south coast though Knocker?! Good on you for not being IMBY!!

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Well talk about chopping and changing about, gone is the very cold northerly and we now have more of a cool northerly for Easter, still cold by night but some lovely sunny weather for many areas and temperatures not to bad by day, gone are the 6/8c's that were showing up yesterday in the Southern half of the country  and in are the 11-14c's, particularly the further southwest you go. South coast will be the place to be over Easter.

We would have all been pulling our hair out by now if this was a couple of months back, every single northerly blast that has shown up in the charts has been downgraded in the end, I have come to the conclusion now that there must be something seriously wrong with the models. 

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People keep talking about upgrading this and downgrading that but the detail for the Easter weekend was never pinned down and in fact still isn't. People expect far too much from the models, outside of the reasonable time frame, forgetting, or deliberately ignoring their current scientific limitations. In winter you can say this in spades when the cold cabal are in full hysterical mode.

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In the immediate term here it is cloudy and 9.4 C lower than the same time yesterday (1300 BST) whenit was sunny.

Yuck.

And adding to it the dewpoint is 4.8 C compared to 11.6 C at the same time, oh and the breeze is about the same strength!

Edited by johnholmes

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Once upon a time though Knocker, if you can remember that far back, northerlies occasionally verified from out at D7/8/9 and produced a decent arctic blast, maybe only 1 or 2 out of 10 but it did used to happen in the Dec-April period particularly when there was some sort of model and ensemble agreement. But in the last couple of years its been 0 out 10 and I have lost count of the number of times that a northerly has been showing up in that time frame, what signals do the models keep picking up for the D7-D10 range that are always wrong then? In fact everything is usually shifted many hundreds of miles to our east, surely there is a way of correcting these errors.

Now I'm not complaining about not having a white Easter but a bit of convective weather could have made a change if it was going to turn colder anyway:)

 

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