Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[I remember Atlantic 252]

35 minutes ago, cheese said:

Of course it will be a shock. Don't be silly.

been telling a lot of people I know about Monday, will be a huge shock, woolies out, 12° will feel a lot colder in April, than it would in Dec/Jan, especially after 21°,

all I can say about Monday is brrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Frosty.]

31 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

been telling a lot of people I know about Monday, will be a huge shock, woolies out, 12° will feel a lot colder in April, than it would in Dec/Jan, especially after 21°,

all I can say about Monday is brrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Agreed, it's going to be feeling bitterly cold on monday compared to tomorrow. There looks like being some snow next week, at least across northern hills / mountains at times..and Easter could be cold, windy and very unsettled with rain, wintry showers and hill snow if these GEFS 12z perturbations are anything to go by!.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[cheese]

Certainly hold it isn't unsettled or wet Frosty.. that's the last thing anyone wants! Horrid looking charts there.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Gfs 18z shows some cold shots / reloads from the nw / n during the week ahead, especially affecting the north of the uk with snow on hills at times and some cold nights for all with slight frosts..a big change from tomorrow's exceptional warmth..The south of the uk looks generally drier and brighter than further north with just occasional rain / showers with temps sometimes into the low teens celsius whereas other days barely reach 10/11c..similar throughout Easter..just after Easter becomes colder with NEly winds and some wet weather with snow on hills further south too and some frosty nights. Further ahead, high pressure briefly returns followed by further unsettled weather as a complex trough sets up towards the end. 

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Firstly let's get the WRF take on the beginning of the transition today out of the way

We should be getting towards a general agreement on the evolution for the weekend but it would appear not to be the case. Even the variations within the gfs irself leave the door ajar. Anyway to proceed.

Tuesday/Wednesday sees the main trough track E/SE veering the westerly flow and bringing a fresh breeze and showery rain to most but particularly the north. This quickly moves away and we move into the next phase and after some very brief ridging the next trough arrives to the north, suppressing the ridge and initiating a N/S split over the UK.

From here in the next 24 hours it tracks the low into the southern Baltic veering the flow and still essentially keeping the N/S split with showers concentrated in Scotland.

But the key point here is that at the same time it promotes quite strong pressure rises to the north west and with the low slowing in it's tracking east the winds continue to veer northerly introducing much cooler, showery weather for Sunday/Monday.

This doesn't fill me with confidence and one wonders whether it's overcooking the high pressure. As usual we await the ecm

Edited April 9, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Today looks like being the warmest day of the year so far with 24 to possibly 25c in parts of southern / eastern england..perfect day for a BBQ across most of southern uk..a perfect summer's day!.

[knocker]

There is actually not a bad agreement between the ecm and gfs at 00z Sunday

Edited April 9, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

A taste of winter during and after Easter on the Gfs 00z with frosts, ice and even some sleet and snow around..

Edited April 9, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

This prolonged period of very little rain continues for the south and east

Easter weekend whilst not spectacularly warm does at least look dry away from the west and northwest

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z looks changeable, windy at times and feeling much colder than this weekend and especially today. There will be some fine weather with sunny spells, particularly across the south but also spells of rain followed by colder showery conditions with sleet and snow on hills with overnight frosts and icy patches.

Edited April 9, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 00z mean we are going to become locked into a prolonged rather cold unsettled spell with winds from between NWly / NEly as high pressure generally stays out in the atlantic with trough (s) to the E / NE..

Edited April 9, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Following on from the anomalies of last evening the EPS this morning is still indicating some increased amplification next week with a strong Atlantic ridge building on day ten slightly further east, with the upper flow veering northerly and thus some quite cool temps. A long way out but there would appear to be some quite early consensus on this.

 

Edited April 9, 2017 by knocker

[snowray]

A white Easter for some in more northern areas on the 06z.

[snowray]

Will look more like what Christmas should be like by early Monday morning, widespread frost for many.

[snowray]

Damaging frosts by Monday night. Noooooo!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

40 minutes ago, snowray said:

Will look more like what Christmas should be like by early Monday morning, widespread frost for many.

be lucky to get that Xmas morning! more like 8° and gales

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

be lucky to get that Xmas morning! more like 8° and gales

Yes nothing like Christmas, your right there. Well GFS is showing there, 0, -1, -2c pretty widely by the look of things. And any snow that does settle should stay put over night with clearing skies and them sort of temps. Certainly a chance of ice forming where there have been showers during the day.

Edited April 9, 2017 by snowray

[Frosty.]

Well, that was a wintry Gfs 6z, especially for northern hills and mountains with snow galore as cold reload follows cold reload from the nw / n. We would all see damaging frosts with icy patches as well as plenty of wind and rain.

[snowray]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well, that was a wintry Gfs 6z, especially for northern hills and mountains with snow galore as cold reload follows cold reload from the nw / n. We would all see damaging frosts with icy patches as well as plenty of wind and rain.

Yes and in the meantime London's St James Park just hit 24c @ 1pm. I wonder what the reading will be on Easter Sunday a week from now, quite a contrast to come between 1st 10 days of April and the second 10 days. Of course there is still time for everything to get watered down as far as the cold shot and re-loads is concerned.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

46 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes and in the meantime London's St James Park just hit 24c @ 1pm. I wonder what the reading will be on Easter Sunday a week from now, quite a contrast to come between 1st 10 days of April and the second 10 days. Of course there is still time for everything to get watered down as far as the cold shot and re-loads is concerned.

Stinks for our locations though, rain and gales, hopefully any cold/wet setup is watered down, I live on no hill oop norf

[Summer Sun]

This prolonged period of below average rainfall shows no sign of stopping

If this continues into May parts of the south and southeast might be starting to get close to water restrictions as summer arrives

[MP-R]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This prolonged period of below average rainfall shows no sign of stopping

If this continues into May parts of the south and southeast might be starting to get close to water restrictions as summer arrives

Could make for some higher than usual temperatures too under any summer anticyclone or plume setup.

[Frosty.]

25c has been reached in the SE..heading for 26c now!..amazing weather but a high pollen count too. Much cooler tomorrow but actually the week ahead still looks largely dry further south, bar a midweek blip but during Easter things could turn more unsettled nationwide from the nw / n, and colder / windier too with snow on hills in the north and night frosts.

Edited April 9, 2017 by Frosty.

[Chris.R]

 Meanwhile it's 13°C here with an on-shore breeze. It was 17°C earlier though. All over. 

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

25c has been reached in the SE..heading for 26c now!..amazing weather but a high pollen count too. Much cooler tomorrow but actually the week ahead still looks largely dry further south, bar a midweek blip but during Easter things could turn more unsettled nationwide from the nw / n, and colder / windier too with snow on hills in the north and night frosts.

26c in SE England academic I know but Ben Nevis sumit is showing -2c and snow showers,that is some 28c difference 

C.S.