Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

20 minutes ago, Eugene said:

A temp drop of around 10C from Monday is a pretty big drop and will be a shock to the system for most people, a much cooler week ahead, looks like some extensive northerly blocking setting itself up for the rest of April, this doesn't guarantee cold but it definately increases the chances, there is no sign of a plume in the very deep depths of GFS as you say.

Would much rather see the blocking now, than say in the depths of June. Plus any plumes now, will not have any real juice behind them. Mid May on into June is when things normally get into proper action. 

A chance tomorrow however of the odd thunderstorm cropping up in the East Midlands into Lincolnshire way. I'll be keeping an eye on it! 

 

Edited April 8, 2017 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[snowray]

Well once again the GFS, and Met Office too have been too low with their temp forecasts for today going for only 15-17c a couple of days ago. As I expected we are way higher with wall to wall sunshine and temps widely 18-20c all the way up to Yorkshire.

So can we get up to 23c tomorrow then, I think so, 24c not so likely but maybe somewhere in the East/Southeast will get close.

Edited April 8, 2017 by snowray

[Chris.R]

Yep  just reached 20°C here. 

[Frosty.]

Well today is a beauty and tomorrow will be too, at least across most of England and Wales with a very warm and sunny day, more like July than early April with 24-25c for the warmest spots..all change for Monday though.

[Frosty.]

It's set to be a cold unsettled Easter with strong NW / NNWly winds veering Nly if the Gfs 12z is right and it would be cold enough for snow on hills, especially in the north with cold nights and a frost / ice risk..more like winter.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Yep  just reached 20°C here. 

21c in London confirmed @ St James Park and Northolt,  so my call of 19-21c temps for today was correct. 

 

Whats all this about then at D8 then? Cold Easter back on is it?

[Summer Sun]

For good Friday the further southwest you are the drier and brighter it should be with any showers the further north and east you go

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z is nowhere near as unsettled as the Gfs next week and especially the Easter period with high pressure frequently ridging across southern uk from the west with the most unsettled weather, such as it is, generally restricted to northern uk..and its not as cold as the Gfs run either..Easter isn't sorted out yet.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

Yes there will be more chopping and changing to come no doubt. Its interesting though that the GFS control is in agreement with the operational at T192. All eyes on the ECM I guess.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes there will be more chopping and changing to come no doubt. Its interesting though that the GFS control is in agreement with the operational at T192. All eyes on the ECM I guess.

My only wish is if it is going to turn cold from the N, the HP out west doesn't interfere too much. That way we can get more in the way of an unstable N'ly and set off some convection. -6 uppers and some strong solar input could produce some nice skies.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

My only wish is if it is going to turn cold from the N, the HP out west doesn't interfere too much. That way we can get more in the way of an unstable N'ly and set off some convection. -6 uppers and some strong solar input could produce some nice skies.

do you not mean the other way? hopefully the high to the west will end up closer, to stop the showery northerly

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean has definitely trended colder and more unsettled regarding the Easter period..after Good Friday compared to the 6z mean with the high further west and the trough to the E / NE closer.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

do you not mean the other way? hopefully the high to the west will end up closer, to stop the showery northerly

No, I don't. I'm a convective weather fan. Let's get some people out of NSC, even if N'ly based convection is weaker than the summer S'ly counterpart.

Plus we've been under a mainly HP dominated regime for months and months and months. Today is lovely and the warmth feels good, but let's have some actual weather 

Edited April 8, 2017 by CreweCold

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, I don't. I'm a convective weather fan. Let's get some people out of NSC, even if N'ly based convection is weaker than the summer S'ly counterpart.

Plus we've been under a mainly HP dominated regime for months and months and months. Today is lovely and the warmth feels good, but let's have some actual weather 

Prefer a plume though in April/May, good storms and convective skies, and at least it will be warm!

[Frosty.]

Relatively small changes could make a big difference to Easter, either the high to the west could build back in or the trough to the E / NE could be closer with stronger winds and increased ppn..The Gfs / Gem 12z show what I mean.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Relatively small margins could make a big difference to Easter, either the high to the west could build back in or the trough to the E / NE could be closer with stronger winds and increased ppn.

prefer first option Frosty!

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

prefer first option Frosty!

Actually me too, I would rather it be dry with some sunshine than blowing a gale and chucking it down throughout Easter.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

As things stand, most of Easter could be a wet and windy washout or a largely fine and pleasant period. I have cherry picked the best of the GEFS 12z but it should be noted, there is plenty of cold wet and windy runs in there too, more than the 6z.., however, I think it's still too early to call the Easter holiday weekend yet.. so..will it be decent, half decent or cold, wet and windy?..another day or so should give us the answer.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a half decent week ahead, at least further south with high pressure building across the south at times but Good Friday doesn't look so good as it becomes more unsettled from the n / nw and saturday looks cold and showery in a Northerly airstream with high pressure just to the west, however sunday shows pressure rising from the west with a cold frosty start and still some showers further east but drier and sunnier further west..Bank Holiday Monday shows high pressure building over the uk from the west..so it could be best described as a changeable period coming up with the best of the weather further south / south west with the ebb and flow of the atlantic high and lower heights to the NE / E with the run ending with a gradually more unsettled and cooler / colder trend from the north but again probably only briefly before high pressure again nudges in from the west.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The Easter weekend is still a long way from being settled with differences between the gfs and ecm continuing. At T144 the ecm has a large area of low pressure to the NE with a centre near Stavanger whereas the gfs has a ridge in the North Sea and the low still centred near Iceland. In the next 24 hours the ecm runs the low SE initiating a cool transient northerly before high pressure moves in from the west. Thus at the moment the ecm is plumping for a game of two halves with the Sunday and Monday being a big improvement. But this is long way from a done deal as yet..

Edited April 8, 2017 by knocker

[March]

7 hours ago, Eugene said:

A temp drop of around 10C from Monday is a pretty big drop and will be a shock to the system for most people, a much cooler week ahead, looks like some extensive northerly blocking setting itself up for the rest of April, this doesn't guarantee cold but it definately increases the chances, there is no sign of a plume in the very deep depths of GFS as you say.

How would a 10C drop be a shock? It's not like it's been 20C every day for a few weeks. The last time it was Monday's temp was all the way back on........27th March. 

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, March said:

How would a 10C drop be a shock? It's not like it's been 20C every day for a few weeks. The last time it was Monday's temp was all the way back on........27th March. 

It will be a shock for the south and east of England in particular though, 24-25c tomorrow, down to 12c or thereabouts on Monday..monday looks a getting colder day from the NW..quite chilly feeling following Sunday's exceptional summer like warmth.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[cheese]

59 minutes ago, March said:

How would a 10C drop be a shock? It's not like it's been 20C every day for a few weeks. The last time it was Monday's temp was all the way back on........27th March. 

Of course it will be a shock. Don't be silly.

[knocker]

There is still no agreement between NOAA, GEFs and the EPS 6-10 anomalies this evening.

They are all okay with a strong Alaskan ridge into the Arctic and quite an intense vortex lobe Norther Canada but still cannot agree on the dual role of the Scandinavian trough and the ridging of the Azores in mid to eastern Atlantic. And until this is sorted the Easter weekend weather is going to remain uncertain as to detail.  The GEFS is going for more amplification which, depending on the exact configuration, leaves the track of systems running around the ridge open to slight adjustments that will impact unsettled and cooler weather expectations. With NOAA and the EPS being more zonal this is not quite so important.

Moving into the later period they are all agreed on some renewed amplification with some quite strong ridging in the Atlantic with the trough just to the east. This would veer the upper flow NW, and even according to the EPS northerly, so this could well signify a spell of cooler unsettled weather with temps perhaps a fair bit below average.

Edited April 8, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ens mean looks half decent for the week ahead, certainly much cooler than this weekend and more changeable but not full blown unsettled and actually the south of the uk has a good deal of fine weather through the coming week as high pressure to the west ridges eastwards across the south at times. The Easter period also looks changeable but trending more unsettled (trough dominated) from the end of next week into week 2.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.