Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[ANYWEATHER]

The Ecm shows a similar evolution ! Perhaps on Sunday the south east of England could see 23c/73f  but this could well change, thereafter a much chillier and unsettled spell following...

[damianslaw]

General trend is towards something more unsettled next week, but perhaps not quite the cold northerly interlude being projected by some models just 48 hrs or so ago. In the reliable its a pleasant outlook overall, temps near average, with lots of dry albeit rather cloudy weather, best of the sun in the south and east. Weekend promises to be another fine one for the south and east in particular, with temps perhaps edging close to 70f, but high teens more likely.

Uncertainty thereafter, but the most likely scenario is for a flow between north and west to take hold, with low pressure and frontal activity edging in affecting the north especially where a chilly few days in the run up to easter look like occuring, not quite so wet and cool in the south, but feeling less springlike than recently.

Easter too far out to cal at this stage, perhaps expect a very average one..

Longer term - strong signals heights could develop robustly over Greenland, consequently a flow between north and east would be likely, for the first time in ages! but very normal for second half of April.

[Scorcher]

Am I missing something in terms of cloud amounts on Saturday? I know it's never easy to predict but the BBC seemed to be coming on board earlier suggesting sunshine, but now their 5 day forecasts are going for cloud again, even for SE England.

Can fully understand the cloud at the moment and for the rest of the week with the NW flow coming round the top of the high but the charts seem to show a southerly developing in time for Saturday.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean is trending towards something more unsettled and cooler next week with a flow between west and north. 

[knocker]

Not much change from the the models (so far) this morning so an opportunity to keep the waffle to a minimum.

A glance at last night's anomalies merely shows that they are all more or less singing from the same hymn sheet with the vortex lobe over north Canada, associated trough to the N/NE of the UK and the Azores nudging away mid Atlantic.So the detail over Easter still down to the resolution of the interplay of the cold/warm a.k.a as the the Atlantic trough and the Azores HP which the det. runs will eventually sort. I'll stick the 850mb ecm chart just for a change as it still gives an idea of the pressure distribution

Now for this morning's delights. Still looking good for the weekend as the transition gets underway. Well in England anyway. The high pressure cell slips quietly south east which initiates a southerly drift over England whilst sat the same time allowing the Atlantic to ingress into Scotland on Sunday. Thus temps still around around 18C, possibly 20C and taking a punt here, pretty cloud free. Don't quote me on that.

From here the battle between the Azores ridging north east and the energy/troughs tacking east then east begins in earnest and the first depression traverses Scotland and the north of England on Tuesday and is a very good example of the N/S split.

This depression quickly runs south east and heralds the next interplay session with the HP briefly becoming more influential before the next major trough arrives in the Iceland area and the associated fronts impact the north on Friday. This initially  squashes the high pressure and then rapidly eliminates it and opens the door fully to the Atlantic but this will undoubtedly change so little point in going there

 

Edited April 5, 2017 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

not too bad! were at one point looking at rain and a vile N'ly, pressure on latest runs becoming higher, and winds milder

[knocker]

The ecm begins to diverge from the gfs at T132 and by Friday it is making much more of a fist of the HP keeping out the Atlantic. This would be a much better solution for Easter but as previously stated will probably take another couple of days before the analysis gains some hard traction.

[Summer Sun]

Last night the beeb said high teens low 20s for the weekend seems a fair assessment given the tendency GFS has to underestimate temps the low 20s could easily be hit - I wouldn't rule out 22 or 23c somewhere

Into next week high pressure never far away

[Frosty.]

Weekend looking nice and warm, perhaps very warm in the south.

[mb018538]

I can't wait to see some of this 'Varaible Cloud' the BBC are forecasting

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows a nice weekend and becoming warmer with plenty of sunshine, the sunny weather lasting through sunday across most of England and Wales with temps into the high teens celsius with favoured spots likely to reach the low 20's c on sunday as the gfs tends to underestimate the temps..as was the case last week.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

I think the GFS in underplaying those temps again too....if the set up verifies as shown, 21c will be reached somewhere!

[Frosty.]

I don't see a change to really unsettled weather next week, sure it looks like becoming cooler relative to how warm this weekend will be but I don't think it will be too bad in terms of wind and rain, especially further south where there should be some lengthy dry and brighter spells..and hopefully that will include Easter. 

[mb018538]

Rainfall totals to Tuesday are negligible for most...



Some rain pushing through Wednesday into Thursday, but nothing out of the ordinary. This unsettled spell has been watered down so much in recent runs in that it may not even end up that unsettled at all really.

[Frosty.]

 

I honestly think the Gfs is woefully under playing the warmth potential for the south on sunday, the Gfs 6z shows 17/18c but the BBC are saying 23c 73f for the warmest spots in southern / southeast England. The big boost in warmth is dependent on the high drifting to the E /SE and enabling the much warmer / continental southerly breeze to do it's job.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[JoeShmoe]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

 

I honestly think the Gfs is woefully under playing the warmth potential for the south on sunday, the Gfs 6z shows 17/18c but the BBC are saying 23c 73f for the warmest spots in southern / southeast England.

BBQ time :-)

[Frosty.]

Well, the Gfs 12z doesn't look bad at all regarding next week, especially further south with high pressure generally in control and following a brief dip in temperatures early next week, it becomes much milder / pleasant across the south but chilly further north..Easter looking decent 

Edited April 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[MattTarrant]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Well, the Gfs 12z doesn't look bad at all regarding next week, especially further south with high pressure generally in control and following a brief dip in temperatures early next week, it becomes much milder / pleasant across the south.  

Yes very much so, high pressure is always influencing southern portions of the UK at least. As to people saying GFS is woefully underplaying temps is not really correct. I think in a generalist prospective I think temperatures will be widely 18/19 with the south east more like 19/20. BBC only has London reaching 20 so its not 'woeful'! The ECM is similar in style to GFS but instead deepens a low to the south of Iceland by early Wednesday, the differential between the high pressure cell and the Scandinavian trough is much more defined leading to a greater gradient and thus a stronger NW flow, yet the ECM then brings the high in more centrally so who knows?   

[Frosty.]

Just now, MattTarrant said:

Yes very much so, high pressure is always influencing southern portions of the UK at least. As to people saying GFS is woefully underplaying temps is not really correct. I think in a generalist prospective I think temperatures will be widely 18/19 with the south east more like 19/20. BBC only has London reaching 20 so its not 'woeful'! The ECM is similar in style to GFS but instead deepens a low to the south of Iceland by early Wednesday, the differential between the high pressure cell and the Scandinavian trough is much more defined leading to a greater gradient and thus a stronger NW flow, yet the ECM then brings the high in more centrally so who knows?   

Darren Bett on news 24 sounds quite bullish showing 23c for the south on sunday, a lot higher than the 17/18c on the Gfs 12z.

[MattTarrant]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Darren Bett on news 24 sounds quite bullish showing 23c for the south on sunday, a lot higher than the 17/18c on the Gfs 12z.

Is that not the exception rather than the rule? 

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Is that not the exception rather than the rule? 

21-23c looks widespread across the south on Sunday, more like summer.

Compare that to the Gfs 12z..

Edited April 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Monday is likely to be fresher with the chance of some rain before high pressure builds in again on Tuesday

A very nice weekend coming up widely high teens to low 20s for England and Wales lower teens for Scotland and NI

[Frosty.]

This weekend looks increasingly very warm and sunny across southern uk according to the Ecm 12z..sunday looks warmest with 21-23c quite widely across southern / southeast england with continental air wafting north..potentially a little warmer than the last warm spell.

Edited April 5, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

A decent start to easter from ECM

I've seen much worse in years gone by

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A decent start to easter from ECM

I've seen much worse in years gone by

Indeed, the unsettled weather next week is downgrading compared to what was shown as recently as yesterday and now, high pressure is making a comeback. In the meantime, enjoy the nice warm / very warm weekend ahead across the southern half of the uk.