Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[frosty ground]

Just now, Frosty. said:

I've been saying its going to be a sunny weekend for days while others were saying it would be cloudy and cool..nice to be right!

Yrs Saturday is indeed a lovely day with cloud amounts down to a minimum but even the BBC show cloud rolling in tomorrow and the weather goes down  hill from there. Had we taken your optocast to heart we would be very disapointed. 

The GFS was clearly wrong today but even that showed plenty of sunny skies for today 

 

[Frosty.]

At least I've proved I'm more accurate than the Gfs..not difficult I know

[cheese]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I've been saying its going to be a sunny warm weekend for days while others were saying it would be cloudy and cool..nice to be right!

The Beeb changed their forecast for Sunday here. Yesterday it had cloudy and 11C. Now it has mostly sunny and 13C. Cloud amounts were also overestimated for this morning, because it was completely clear with no mist or fog in sight. 

Quote

Any early mist and fog will clear quite quickly. While all parts will stay dry there may be a little more cloud than Saturday, plenty of sunshine as well.

 

Edited March 25, 2017 by cheese

[snowray]

How very true, in fact I can't remember the GFS having been as bad as it has been of late, UKMO/ECM have their off days too of course, but GFS is almost always playing catch up.

At the end of the day and only in my humble opinion, in this battle between the Frostys, the winner is the frosty that predicted SUNNY weather.

[Frosty.]

Looking very good for the next few days and becoming even warmer early next week with temps into the low or possibly mid 60's F further s / se.

[knocker]

Seems to be Ci building at 11z and definitely cloudy over Chipping Norton.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Seems to be Ci building at 11z and definitely cloudy over Chipping Norton.

 nice, I like a bit of cirrus, looks pretty.

Models look set fair for the next few days, a bit of a fly in the ointment on tuesday and then from midweek it starts going downhill from the w / nw, staying fine and warm longest in the SE. 

Edited March 25, 2017 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

The Beeb changed their forecast for Sunday here. Yesterday it had cloudy and 11C. Now it has mostly sunny and 13C. Cloud amounts were also overestimated for this morning, because it was completely clear with no mist or fog in sight. 

 

Yes the fog that formed here in the very early hours had gone by 0600 but the airport took (3 miles away) took until about 0730 to clear

[johnholmes]

the latest visual sat picc courtesy of Dundee Uni shown below. It indicates no sign at all over the N Sea of any troubling cloud and skew-t diagrams suggest only very limited convective cloud for most of England and Wales. Sunshine amounts, away from the eastern coast and SE coasts should generate some relatively high maxima, for the highest, areas to the lee of any high ground from the E/SE lightish breeze, more noticeable the further SE you live.

Skegness skew-t for late afternoon

Shawbury

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=cskew;sess=659ea4ccc6041c29f9c8aca7e0914e0f

sorry you have to type in the name of a place, so your nearest town to show the cross section of the atmosphere over you from the latest GFS model run.

Edited March 25, 2017 by johnholmes

[snowray]

14 minutes ago, knocker said:

Seems to be Ci building at 11z and definitely cloudy over Chipping Norton.

Looking good to me, can confirm that its very windy down here but lovely warm sunshine. Met office website have your location Camborne Devon on 16c at 12 noon, thought that was the highest temperature so far but in fact we have 16c at Aberdeen and 17c at Aboyne. Incredible to see how far out GFS was, I expect that its under estimating the strength of the sun.

[knocker]

5 oktas of cloud at Northolt and 6 at Boscombe at midday

12 03672 5 06 16 82  13.8  -0.9 1029.5  -1.7

12 03746 6 05 18 81  13.0  -0.8 1028.2  -2.0

[johnholmes]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

5 oktas of cloud at Northolt and 6 at Boscombe at midday

12 03672 5 06 16 82  13.8  -0.9 1029.5  -1.7

12 03746 6 05 18 81  13.0  -0.8 1028.2  -2.0

come on knocker what type and what height, it does matter, I suspect you are again on a wind up!

 

A quick check shows NONE of the cloud is below 5000ft, and is probably Cirrus, hardly affecting the temperature!

Edited March 25, 2017 by johnholmes

[BlueHedgehog074]

17 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Yes tomorrow looks a stunner, just saw BBC weather and it shows clear sunny skies tomorrow but this is what the Gfs 12z shows..what a load of tosh!

Yeah, does look look as though the GFS had over-estimated the strength of the sunshine shield for places today.

Must admit, was worried the GFS would have proved victorious! But...

GFS 0 - 1 UKMO/BBC

Sorry 12Z GFS, you lost! 

[knocker]

Just now, johnholmes said:

come on knocker what type and what height, it does matter, I suspect you are again on a wind up!

Wind up? Me John. Don't know what type as not a full ob but it can be seen on the hres Modis from Dundee at 1240

 

[Frosty.]

This is an interesting fact, the temperatures today are about as mild as they were on christmas day!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This is an interesting fact, the temperatures today are about as mild as they were on christmas day!

would normally expect late March colder, certainly miles colder start, below 0 in some areas, as not uncommon for Dec nowadays, didn't get anywhere near that low

[Frosty.]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

would normally expect late March colder, certainly miles colder start, below 0 in some areas, as not uncommon for Dec nowadays, didn't get anywhere near that low

I still thought it was interesting.

[johnholmes]

Northolt has 4/8 Ci at 25000ft

Boscombe Down has 6/8 at 30000 ft

Much as the Dundee satellite showed earlier and what the skew-t's suggested would happen.

I'll leave you to admire the waspish humour of k and his squirrel

Edited March 25, 2017 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

I'll leave you to admire the waspish humour of k and his squirrel

I'm used to it, he was taking the P out of me last night..I just laugh it off and move on.

[Polar Maritime]

Just sensible 'model output discussion' please in here. There are other threads for chit chat and the likes.

Thanks please continue.

[Frosty.]

Good news is tomorrow looks just as sunny as today..i.e..from dawn til dusk for many places. :-)

[Singularity]

GFS gave me a 12*C max today and the actual is in the 16s. Go figure, oh wait we already have 

Anyway - just popped over to bring you a glance into another reality in which the GEM is right and we become even balmier (okay, warmer!) next week:

  

...but if we look at heights in particular we can see a vast difference with GFS as early as +144:

 

This difference is seeded around a day beforehand when GEM places the main low in our vicinity further north and is also more progressive with the one west of the Azores, so shutting the door on the jet stream taking on a NW-SE orientation into Europe to bring the UK a day of blustery showers on Saturday such as GFS shows and UKMO looks headed toward.

It'll be interesting to see which side ECM picks later, as sometimes it shows a surprising affinity with GEM.

Edited March 25, 2017 by Singularity

[Frosty.]

Well the Gfs showed today would be cloudy across most of the uk and its actually been a gorgeous clear sunny and warm day..and guess what, it's at it again regarding tomorrow predicting another dull day for many and is likely to be completely wrong again with another clear and sunny warm day expected again tomorrow.

Edited March 25, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The good news is tomorrow will be another clear and sunny warm day with no more than a bit of wispy high currus cloud and temps are again expected to be into the mid teens celsius range after a cold start. Monday again looks fine, maybe a bit of early mist but a good deal of sunshine again expected across the board with temps a notch higher, around 16c max. Tuesday looks a bit different, more cloud and some heavy and thundery showers across England and Wales but still with some sunshine around and warm enough at 16/17c. Midweek becomes more unsettled across the n / w and later next week the atlantic pushes through remaining areas and it turns cooler and fresher from the west but only briefly as its soon cut off by another building Azores ridge which brings another fine and warm spell to southern uk but staying more unsettled and cooler further north..all in all, a decent Ecm 12z, especially for the south. 

Edited March 25, 2017 by Frosty.

[legritter]

Models still showing some good weather ,a break down during this week then high pressure again ,we could even get some hvy showers which will make it a bit more interesting . we had some very interesting clouds this afternoon , and even the contrails were of an interesting kind ,dont forget any one learning about upper air charts would benefit from reading [the science of contrails ] a very good read , short ones ,long ones , broken ones , etc etc , in my neck of the woods the Squirrels are running around shouting Frosty is the King ,what a fantastic forum we have and great when its quieter that we can do a bit of banter , cheers gang