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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Much as previously intimated, I'm no longer inclined to posting much at all on these threads, winter or summer, but admittedly the perspectives offered sometimes prove too much to resist responding to

Do they?  Oh ok, right you are then. You could of course have quoted said "way of the pear" musings by way of illustration - but I accept that would conflict with the real purpose of the post and

So, the steadily improving picture emerges, from a sea of apparent doubt, and as suggested is timed quite nicely for the approach of summer That background ENSO neutral > weak Nino signal impr

Posted Images

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seen it too, and 16° max in some places, shame about -2° mins though

Yes but the sun soon gets to work on it and clocks go forward this weekend so it's all good..we are heading the right way..nice spell after the recent poor weather.

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59 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not going to get involved in any ridiculous discussions on cloud amounts but the updated WRF is certainly not going for cloud free and this model isn't bad within the time frame in my experience.

totalcloud_d02_28.thumb.png.a1d6f324cb37be8eda682cb11560117c.png

http://d.ripwrf.info/?page_id=2768

Looks like thin high cloud so just making the sunshine a bit hazy at times..BBC charts going for clear blue skies..see who's right! :- )

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Thought i,d just pop in and say hi gang . Every drop of warmth will come in handy ,no good having cold winds that find every gap in your clothes ,as far as the models go its a case of typical early spring , cheers gang , :yahoo:

 

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51 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looks like thin high cloud so just making the sunshine a bit hazy at times..BBC charts going for clear blue skies..see who's right! :- )

The WRF model is certainly showing it is Cirrus but I must admit I'm very impressed, nay shocked even, that you have been able to discern that it's thin. :shok:

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

The WRF model is certainly showing it is Cirrus but I must admit I'm very impressed, nay shocked even, that you have been able to discern that it's thin. :shok:

That's a compliment indeed coming from an ex met office man..cheers malcolm:D

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Has April Fools day come early this year? Flood warnings on the BBC website while under a good ridge of High Pressure.......

 

 

FLOODS.JPG

Edited by 40*C
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The big day has arrived and tension is mounting. Will there be Cirrus at Chipping Norton this afternoon? Tune in later to see the drama unfold. Meanwhile the inexorable march of the Atlantic low/trough continues and the effects may well be felt in some parts as early as Monday as it it phases in and activates the cut off low to out south west.

gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.21e9299779ae9019636329f90b238fab.png

Nothing to get too excited about but the main low continues to push east, with the high pressure slowly losing the battle as it slips south east, and weak fronts arrive in the Irish Sea by 18z on Wednesday. Thus a classic SE/NW split with temps generally above average.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_20.thumb.png.7fb734533b243adef542f415a09607f0.png

From here the process continues but by the weekend there would appear to be some renewed amplification with the trough deconstructing as it hits the ridge/trough scenario to the east and the Azores once more surges north in mid Atlantic.

gfs_z500a_natl_31.thumb.png.437e1fb931b5e9c9b84d458bbdb44aef.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_32.thumb.png.50f10adca3dadf7a5e47f5d7ea5637ca.png

So in a nutshell dry and quite pleasant until the middle of next week when it will become more unsettled with periods of light rain before high pressure once more becomes influential by next weekend. The temp remaining quite respectable and a tad above average.

Edited by knocker
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The ecm not dissimilar to the GFS with the Atlantic low dominating affairs mid week and the Azores making a come back by the end. Cracking morning so off down to the lake to see Sidney.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.66320294ca06745c283e9fe139492655.png

 

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7 hours ago, 40*C said:

Has April Fools day come early this year? Flood warnings on the BBC website while under a good ridge of High Pressure.......

 

 

FLOODS.JPG

River Ouse in York burst its banks yesterday, and the River Aire in Leeds was rather high. It's because of all the rain that fell in the Yorkshire Dales. All that rain water flowed downstream. 

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Well it's a beautiful sunny weekend under high pressure folks, unbroken sunshine for many today and a good deal of sunshine on sunday but with perhaps a bit of fair weather cloud floating around and feeling pleasantly warm by day but chilly overnight under clear skies with a slight frost and patchy fog..perfick.:D

Further ahead, warm with some sunshine on monday and warm again on tuesday with sunny spells but a risk of a few showers.

Edited by Frosty.
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Sorry guys but this is the only snow I could find on the Gfs 00z.:closedeyes::cray::nonono:

But to be honest, I'm looking for spring warmth now..and I found some this weekend!:D

00_348_preciptype.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Well having had a good run in predicting various wave length changes over the past winter and the example I showed a few days ago they seem to have gone AWOL as they say.

NOAA having been quite definite about another ridge building NW of the UK for 2-3 days suddenly dropped it Thursday and was a similar picture last evening. EC-GFS have both been far from settled in the patterns they have predicted, so I sit on the fence at the moment.

The current set up with little cloud showing little cloud for today in this area on the skew-T but rather more tomorrow and increasingly after that seems reasonable. Met Fax charts have dropped the idea of an old front edging south over the N Sea which was a concern a couple of days ago. By Tuesday the flow looks to be veering towards a more SW'ly direction with frontal troughs starting to affect the UK. For many a pleasant weekend after another chilly start tomorrow, some mist and patchy fog but, clocks going forward, probably cleared by the time most folk not working will be getting up.

Just to show the predicted upper air patterns, the usual links

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

You can see that the latest set of charts do show a fair degree of agreement for a flow south of west off the Atlantic with ridging occurring south of not north of the UK.

Edited by johnholmes
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Hi all,

With GMT drawing to a close and BST arriving at 1am tomorrow it's a good time to remind everyone that the models will be 1 hour later from the 00z's tomorrow

New times (approx)

GFS - 00Z 0430-0545 - 12Z 1630-1745

ECM - 00Z 0700-0800 | 12Z 1900-2000

UKMO - 00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900

ens runs will also be 1 hour later in updating

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30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Hi all,

With GMT drawing to a close and BST arriving at 1am tomorrow it's a good time to remind everyone that the models will be 1 hour later from the 00z's tomorrow

New times (approx)

GFS - 00Z 0430-0545 - 12Z 1630-1745

ECM - 00Z 0700-0800 | 12Z 1900-2000

UKMO - 00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900

ens runs will also be 1 hour later in updating

Cheers Gavin, appreciated :-)

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A slow breakdown looks likely at the end of the week as the Atlantic trough moves eastwards but weakens as it progresses so rain in the south and east looks minimal.

EDM1-120.GIF?25-12   EDM1-168.GIF?25-12

Looking at the models across the board, it looks like the unsettled weather could be short lived as the next ridge moves in.

EDM1-192.GIF?25-12   EDM1-240.GIF?25-12

 

Worth noting the the GFS/ECM/GEM operationals all get the high further north than the ens, though that isn't a surprise, if it is right then we could see a very pleasant or even warm start to April. This does tie in with a lot of mid to long term predictions of Spring being high pressure dominated on the whole and warmer than average as per the ECM, CFS and JMA monthly/six week forecasts.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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22 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

Yes Frosty

It's a rare sight. Clear skies over the UK that is, not me in the pub :D

Haha, yes enjoy the beer garden, it's a lovely weekend under high pressure.:drinks:

C7sEFKSXQAQuDIW.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Its already 10, 11, 12c in many places so we will probably end up a lot higher than what the GFS are showing, I think that west Wales might be the place to be this afternoon.

Got one of my mates stag dos today, clay pigeon shoot, up the pub for 4pm, then a curry later tonight, it's just as well that he never asked for my advice in picking the day with best weather so far this year.:)

9-580.GIF

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9 minutes ago, snowray said:

Its already 10, 11, 12c in many places so we will probably end up a lot higher than what the GFS are showing, I think that west Wales might be the place to be this afternoon.

Got one of my mates stag dos today, clay pigeon shoot, up the pub for 4pm, then a curry later tonight, it's just as well that he never asked for my advice in picking the day with best weather so far this year.:)

9-580.GIF

I've been saying its going to be a sunny warm weekend for days while others were saying it would be cloudy and cool..nice to be right!

Edited by Frosty.
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