Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM is delayed this evening no ETA yet

Cheers for letting us know Gavin.

[Frosty.]

While we wait for the delayed Ecm 12z.

The GEFS 12z mean is still looking nice and quiet for a time during late march with high pressure building in and becoming centred over the uk.

[A.J]

eye candy, but you have to love the 12z GFS.....it likes the idea of disruptive snowfall over a large swathe of Central/Southern England and the Midlands, and a dumping of around 1 foot in my back garden...lol

 

 

[Sky Full]

Not not showing any signs of backing down, the GFS is proposing a 12 hour period of potentially widespread snowy conditions in under six days from now....

  . 

What would it be like in here if this was a month earlier....

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Not not showing any signs of backing down, the GFS is proposing a 12 hour period of potentially widespread snowy conditions in under six days from now....

  . 

What would it be like in here if this was a month earlier....

We just need the ukmo and gem on-board and... the ecm

Edited March 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[Sky Full]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

We just need the ukmo and gem on-board and... the ecm

We know the ECM has other ideas but the UKMO and GEM seem to be on the fence, if not a little in support of the GFS...

UKMO at +120:                                                               GEM at +132:

            

Could still go either way!!  

 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

We know the ECM has other ideas but the UKMO and GEM seem to be on the fence, if not a little in support of the GFS...

UKMO at +120:                                                               GEM at +132:

            

Could still go either way!!  

 

Yes it's interestingly poised, fine margins. :- )

Edited March 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

This surely has to be worth a mention - in the semi reliable too.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This surely has to be worth a mention - in the semi reliable too.

I'm not going to tell my family about it until we have cross model support at T+24

[feb1991blizzard]

my post above - just realised - already has been talked about! - no wonder.

[Singularity]

Given it's the only model seeing any MJO activity next week, I'm wary of the GFS output too seriously at the moment, especially given how those sliding lows do usually end up adjusted south nearer the time which would result in something more akin to the 12z UKMO - a raw wind with cold rain and maybe some sleet showers, perhaps snow on high ground depending on just how much cold air has been drawn in from the western flank of the Scandi trough.

To be honest I'd much rather see the low banished south nice and quick with a ridge building in by the weekend and a much better chance of avoiding having a trough complex sat over or close to southern UK during the following week. Apart from that snow event (or especially because of it, depending on your inclination), the 12z GFS run is pretty awful for the southern half of the UK in general.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is now updating GFS very much the odd one out once more at t144...

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z has more in common with winter than spring next week, at least across the north as there is some snow around which is more than can be said for most of another depressing almost snowless winter!

And some severe frosts over the snow fields of scotland.

Edited March 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

And just for fun, the Gfs 18z shows an Arctic blast incoming just after April fool's day!

Edited March 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[DTHFCJ]

nice to see 20c on these! think that is the 1st time bring it on!

pity is only one run..

Edited March 17, 2017 by DTHFCJ

[knocker]

This weekend sees the UK the meat in the sandwich with HP to the south west and LP to the NW-NE thus a string westerly gradient, very strong at times in the north, and in these situations the north and Scotland are always susceptible to systems winging east. This occurs Monday/Tuesday with a low moving rapidly east to be west of Norway 974mb Tuesday morning and during it's travels it could bring blizzard conditions to the mountains of Scotland for a short while.

Whilst this going on the next upper trough is girding it's loins and the good news on this front is that it deconstructs further west and the main centre tracks south to be NW of Coruna along with the associated surface feature. Thus the colder air misses the UK and gives them a nasty shock in Tangiers.

This of course doesn't mean the UK misses the cooler unsettle weather completely but it may well be quite brief as the Azores ridge can now quickly stretch NE bringing colder more settled conditions although there will be a N/S split with the north under the influence of the ridge and the south the low pressure and maybe prone more to showery outbreaks. This doesn't last long as the high pressure becomes established with the low drifting SW and thus drier more settled weather for a spell but temps could be quite variabe with some quite large diurnal fluctuations although generally around average. This is of course according to the GFS.

Further good news looking good for Easter as Sid has been raiding the nut store. Plain sailing from now on with nothing sinister in the woodshed.

 

 

Edited March 18, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm is not dissimilar to the GFS, perhaps making a little bit more of the surface low pressure area next week regarding it's influence over the UK than the latter.Ergo quite unsettled next week until Thursday/Friday, maybe more so the south and west before the Azores comes on board.

[Frosty.]

A nice injection of continental warmth from the Ecm 00z..summery looking charts in late March!

Edited March 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning shows a pretty cool/cold unsettled spell next week, Especially for the Northern half of the UK with -7/8c uppers pushing through from the N/W Tuesday giving the possibility of showers turning wintry anywhere from the Midlands North with elevation. Friday could see -8/-10c uppers quite widely move in from the N/E over the UK. Certainly some interesting variations to come and nothing out of the ordinary for early Spring..

Edited March 18, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Sky Full]

The GFS has watered down the severity of its predictions for next week somewhat, but in my view the ECM has moved nearer to the GFS so there has been a bit of give on both sides:

GFS +96h:                                                             ECM +96h:

       

      

GFS +120h:                                                        ECM +120h:

      

      

So not much, if any, snow away from high ground in the north but definitely colder for a time next week before the Azores high can drag some warmer Atlantic sourced air back across the UK.

Edited March 18, 2017 by Polar Maritime
Tried to remove the unwanted bottom chart for S.F but failed..

[Sky Full]

Compare the above with the UKMO predictions:

+96h:    

+120h:  

+144h:  

Looks like we could end March with high pressure influence but if it's too far to the north the winds will be from the NE or even E so not necessarily warming up yet...

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The GFS has watered down the severity of its predictions for next week somewhat, but in my view the ECM has moved nearer to the GFS so there has been a bit of give on both sides:

GFS +96h:                                                             ECM +96h:

       

      

GFS +120h:                                                        ECM +120h:

      

      

So not much, if any, snow away from high ground in the north but definitely colder for a time next week before the Azores high can drag some warmer Atlantic sourced air back across the UK.

Agreed, it's moving towards another non event, like many previously and to be honest I can't get excited about cold rain and 7c..hope we get a warm plume like the Ecm shows!

[The PIT]

ECM and UKMO against the GFS once again. ECM and UKMO in pretty good agreement with the GFS now beginning to swing to the latter view point. So we have a cold spell coming as to how watered down it gets we will see.

[Sky Full]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, it's moving towards another non event, like many previously and to be honest I can't get excited about cold rain and 7c..hope we get a warm plume like the Ecm shows!

Nor me!  Already fed up with the murky damp conditions we have had here for over a week.  Nothing I can find in the charts to suggest anything truly Spring like in the next two weeks - the best I can find is offered by the GEM:

Even this is transitory and doesn't lead to anything warm and dry but it is still early I suppose - we still have April and May to go!  

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z certainly saves the best until last with a wonderful early April spell of high pressure, sunshine and warmth, especially further south.

Edited March 18, 2017 by Frosty.