phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

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An increasing amount of Ci tomorrow according to the deterministic WRF model, initialised from the GFS 0.25 operational output. This is currently running at a horizontal resolution of 4km and has been designed with the United Kingdom as its primary focus.

highcloud_d02_22.thumb.png.d89652f2c33db8206ecdd4c1e5757965.pnghighcloud_d02_28.thumb.png.e1f64837f998dd12534e3fd23750b5e0.png

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

An increasing amount of Ci tomorrow according to the deterministic WRF model, initialised from the GFS 0.25 operational output. This is currently running at a horizontal resolution of 4km and has been designed with the United Kingdom as its primary focus..mid teens celsius generally but as high as 17-19c in sheltered w / nw favoured spots.

highcloud_d02_22.thumb.png.d89652f2c33db8206ecdd4c1e5757965.pnghighcloud_d02_28.thumb.png.e1f64837f998dd12534e3fd23750b5e0.png

It won't make any difference to another beautiful spring day with unbroken sunshine from dawn until dusk..I find a bit of wispy cirrus looks pretty nice on an otherwise blue sky day..enjoy another cracker. A few lucky places could hit 19c 66f tomorrow afternoon and generally 15c is a good figure.

Edited by Frosty.
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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It won't make any difference to another beautiful spring day with unbroken sunshine from dawn until dusk..I find a bit of wispy cirrus looks pretty nice on an otherwise blue sky day..enjoy another cracker.

Who said anything about wispy? It might even stretch to Cs. :shok: And anyway as this is the model discussion thread I thought it pertinent to mention the output from this model.

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17 minutes ago, knocker said:

An increasing amount of Ci tomorrow according to the deterministic WRF model, initialised from the GFS 0.25 operational output. This is currently running at a horizontal resolution of 4km and has been designed with the United Kingdom as its primary focus.

highcloud_d02_22.thumb.png.d89652f2c33db8206ecdd4c1e5757965.pnghighcloud_d02_28.thumb.png.e1f64837f998dd12534e3fd23750b5e0.png

That same model showed full cloud cover here today at 3pm. Fail - must be worse than the GFS.

Edited by cheese

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Just now, cheese said:

Lol that same model showed full cloud cover here today at 11am. Fail.

Yeah, expect another epic fail tomorrow..Monday looks a beauty too.

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What a cracking day

Tanned up a bit, the beer was flowing, but the temp has dipped after dark as expected

As mentioned....tomorrow looks great (pub) weather. Feeling it will be more hazy though, but i'll no doubt be wrong

 

 

Edited by OddSpot

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28 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

As mentioned....tomorrow looks great (pub) weather. Feeling it will be more hazy though, but i'll no doubt be wrong

 

 

Things are usually a bit hazy after several pints in a beer garden.:D

This is a great little spell, it's just a shame there is hardly anyone here to discuss it.

Edited by Frosty.

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Can we please cut the tickle/tackle.

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Tonight's Gfs 18z is still going for a lot of cloud tomorrow..and just like today, it will be completely wrong.:D

 

18_21_ukcloud.png

Edited by Frosty.
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3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Tuesday looks a bit different, more cloud and some heavy and thundery showers across England and Wales but still with some sunshine around and warm enough at 16/17c.

Saw a reference to this incoming frontal system on the BBC just now, no mention of Thunder but did wonder what season we are in? 19 degrees today and an anticipated maximum for tomorrow. Three sunny days and a Thunderstorm, we must have skipped spring and moved straight on to summer. :shok: :gathering::drinks:

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14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Gfs 18z is still going for a lot of cloud tomorrow..and just like today, it will be completely wrong.:D

 

18_21_ukcloud.png

 

The Weekend wobbles have returned again? Perhaps the GFS is programmed to count contrails these days, plenty of them noticeable today for sure and likewise, tomorrow. 

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Gfs 18z is still going for a lot of cloud tomorrow..and just like today, it will be completely wrong.:D

 

18_21_ukcloud.png

Remember a couple of weeks ago i said i thought we'd miss a prolonged cold Spring that some models were predicting, and by end March/early April we'd see a 21c?........well we aint far off Frosty :D

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7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Remember a couple of weeks ago i said i thought we'd miss a prolonged cold Spring that some models were predicting, and by end March/early April we'd see a 21c?........well we aint far off Frosty :D

Yes it was a very good call..next week the Gfs 18z shows above average temperatures and some rather warm days with temps potentially reaching the upper 60's F..actually a few favoured spots in NW uk could reach 19c tomorrow..hopefully the Gfs will do a little better with its cloud predictions next week, it couldn't be any worse!:D

18_96_uk2mtmp.png

18_120_uk2mtmp.png

18_120_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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....and in keeping with that the 18z gfs keeps the theme of dry and pleasantly warm (out of the breeze) for the next 2 or 3 days but then increasingly unsettled in the mid time scales but never overly cool, some quite warm temperatures the further south and east you are

Edited by reef
Original post removed
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After a fine weekend the high pressure completes the job of sliding away to the south east which just allows the decaying upper trough to the south west to intrude that area early Tuesday so maybe cloudy with some patchy drizzle whilst elsewhere remains dry and quite warm.

This does herald a change for the coming week, albeit nothing drastic, as the main Atlantic trough edges east and by Wednesday weak fronts are orientated down the Irish Sea thus some patchy rain to the west and north west with the south east remaining under the auspices of the high pressure. With the winds still in the SW quadrant temps still above average.

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The battle between the two troughs (Atlantic and east European) and the ridging of the high pressure and slow movement east continues during the week and by Saturday the trough is over the UK and beginning to deconstruct as the Azores once more ridges to the west. So the latter half of the week will be more unsettled with some light showery interludes but the temp holding up well All in all not too bad

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Thereafter brief ridging on Sunday before a familiar N/S split once again becomes the order of the day.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_37.thumb.png.db24acd51e20d05b6d6bc2f0a6d3ba60.png

Edited by knocker

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Well, another cracker today with unbroken sunshine and after a cold start, temps recovering to around 15c 59f..favoured spots into the low to mid 60's F.. cloud and mist spreading across the east tonight but tomorrow should bring a lot of sunshine again but not as widespread as today. Tuesday shows showers across the southwest and there is a risk that some of these will be spreading NE, and developing ahead of them with some sharp showers with a risk of thunder but some pleasant sunshine too and temps around the mid teens celsius.

What a perfect weekend this is turning into..apart from the dull, cool damp Shetland islands..im looking forward to much more of this warm sunny high pressure during the coming months.

Edited by Frosty.
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The ecm pretty much on the same page as the GFS.

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The ECM this morning shows a very optimistic pattern for the 5th April with high pressure building strongly over the UK again:

image.thumb.gif.172efbc23f84af8b4c2c70139accca3b.gif

The GFS has a similar theme although not so bullish as the ECM with the high pressure centred over France and Spain:

image.thumb.png.001e68bcb00d8bfed1745a52a658ca68.png

However, not a bad picture for early April.  Let's hope it continues to improve in the next few days!

Edited by Sky Full

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