Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Very uncertain picture into next week with the morning GFS, GEM and ECM all modelling next week's Atlantic LP differently.

GEM held out it out west before disrupting it to the SW of the British Isles.

ECM absorbed the new LP into the current LP and sent it across the British Isles.

GFS held it closer to the British Isles before moving it across

Until we get some clarity on that development, FI really is about T+120.

 

[mountain shadow]

52 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

Very uncertain picture into next week with the morning GFS, GEM and ECM all modelling next week's Atlantic LP differently.

GEM held out it out west before disrupting it to the SW of the British Isles.

ECM absorbed the new LP into the current LP and sent it across the British Isles.

GFS held it closer to the British Isles before moving it across

Until we get some clarity on that development, FI really is about T+120.

 

I'm not sure it's uncertain at all. Pretty good agreement for an unsettled couple of weeks.

It's only the finer detail of how far East the various troughs can get there by determining the likely severity of the unsettled period.

June as a whole does not look pleasant at all.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

Very uncertain picture into next week with the morning GFS, GEM and ECM all modelling next week's Atlantic LP differently.

GEM held out it out west before disrupting it to the SW of the British Isles.

ECM absorbed the new LP into the current LP and sent it across the British Isles.

GFS held it closer to the British Isles before moving it across

Until we get some clarity on that development, FI really is about T+120.

 

We already have clarity that the first half of June is screwed.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, 40*C said:

We already have clarity that the first half of June is screwed.

No we don't. We have reasonable clarity that the first week of June is unsettled. After that (FI) it's anyone's guess. It could stay unsettled, it could get warm and settled again (these things do tend to pop up at short notice sometimes). The output has shown a predictably mixed bag after next week - hardly an example of clarity 

 

Edited May 31, 2017 by CAPE-steve

[Guest]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm not sure it's uncertain at all. Pretty good agreement for an unsettled couple of weeks.

It's only the finer detail of how far East the various troughs can get there by determining the likely severity of the unsettled period.

June as a whole does not look pleasant at all.

Sigh. We could really do without the histrionics of writing a whole month off. The first week of June looks unsettled. That's it. Anything after that we're guessing as the output has been changing like...erm, the weather (!) It might stay that way for the whole month but at this point (the end of May) it's a guess and nothing else.

Also, it's worth pointing out that an unsettled spell in June is perfectly normal

[ANYWEATHER]

43 minutes ago, CAPE-steve said:

Sigh. We could really do without the histrionics of writing a whole month off. The first week of June looks unsettled. That's it. Anything after that we're guessing as the output has been changing like...erm, the weather (!) It might stay that way for the whole month but at this point (the end of May) it's a guess and nothing else.

Also, it's worth pointing out that an unsettled spell in June is perfectly normal

You're right tbh  an unsettled spell in any month of the year is normal albeit colder in winter warmer in summer That's the beautiful British weather

[Frosty.]

Enjoy the summery conditions during the next few days across southern uk as we scoop continental warm air up from southern europe with temperatures into the mid 20's celsius. There could even be some T-Storms across the s / se on Friday.

[William of Walworth]

I'm back from an even longer winter hibernation than usual -- I've not been on any Model Output discussion here since October.

As ever, uncertainty (and some early June unsettledness) seems to be prevailing in very recent output. For now.

I agree with opponents of writing off the whole of June though. Not needed, and definitely not wise meteorologically.

I think I said the same last summer though, so I'll try my best to confine myself to actual output discussion now,. Thanks for all charts posted and for insights -- people really know their synoptic stuff here.

 

Edited May 31, 2017 by William of Walworth

[Chris.R]

On 30/04/2017 at 06:44, northwestsnow said:

Welcome to may! Appalling charts for people wanting a bit of warmth, extensive northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet, so absent during winter.

Ajoke of a climate ..

 

 

 Why am I getting a sense of déjà vu reading the posts tonight? Happens every month, people having knee-jerk reactions. Let's at least begin June before we start writing it off.  

[mb018538]

As tom jones said....it's not unusual! We can all moan about northern blocking now and not in January etc, but realistically this happens most years.  Much easier to build heights up north with a weaker vortex. There are a number of warm gfs ensemble members, so don't write off a washout just yet.

[MP-R]

I'm fairly confident there will be thunderstorms and severe flooding again in London on June 08th - that seems to be the trend whenever a major political event happens...

In all seriousness though, despite the very autumnal look to the weather as we enter early next week, I don't think it will be long before the models revert to something more seasonal. I'm pretty sure it was June 2014 where the first 10 days were looking distinctly unsettled, and indeed the opening days were, before the trough responsible backed into the Atlantic and a semi-plume scenario was with us by the 06th (which was a Friday). By early next week, the end of next week could look very different.

In the reliable, we have a warm pair of days coming up before much fresher weather by Saturday, which currently looks sunny for many, although far too windy down here for a comfortable BBQ. After the weekend is anyone's guess.

[cheese]

41 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Why am I getting a sense of déjà vu reading the posts tonight? Happens every month, people having knee-jerk reactions. Let's at least begin June before we start writing it off.  

Yup. Remember people posting horror charts earlier in the month, showing low pressure over the UK. They never came to fruition. 

Edited May 31, 2017 by cheese

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful GFS run this morning with low pressure in charge until towards far FI when the Azores ridge topples in.

Low pressure situated south of Iceland throwing bands of rain across with secondary features moving through the UK.

 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful GFS run this morning with low pressure in charge until towards far FI when the Azores ridge topples in.

Low pressure situated south of Iceland throwing bands of rain across with secondary features moving through the UK.

 

It's not dreadful, I'm sure the rain will be very welcome following weeks and weeks of below average rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

GEM has some heat during the latter part of next week and into the following week moving up from mainland Europe the S and SE would be the favoured spots for the highest temps with some thunderstorms entirely possible if the low moved a bit further west more parts would become very warm

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful GFS run this morning with low pressure in charge until towards far FI when the Azores ridge topples in.

Low pressure situated south of Iceland throwing bands of rain across with secondary features moving through the UK.

 

Well the 0z OP was a cold outlier....so don't get too despondent! There seems to be a point at the 7th where some heat appears a la gem, with stalling lows out west drawing up some unstable warmth. One to keep an eye on.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's not dreadful, I'm sure the rain will be very welcome following weeks and weeks of below average rainfall.

But how soon before the news runs clips of bore-holes spraying out water and flooded farmland?

It seems there's a lot more rain on the way and it seems to very quickly shift from drought to washout in the UK.

I don't mind, as my personal favourite weather is good heat or good rain. Also I don't own a farm - but I am rather fond of the Archers ;-)

[Frosty.]

It's a good start to summer across southern uk with plenty of sunshine further s / e with temps well into the 20's celsius as we scoop increasingly warm and humid continental air up from france, parts of the southeast could hit 26c this afternoon. Tomorrow again looks very warm / humid for the south and especially the southeast with temps reaching 26-27c around 80f but the difference tomorrow will be an increasing risk of thunderstorms affecting the southeast and east anglia with some severe storms possible but by the weekend we will all be into a fresher oceanic air mass with warm sunny spells and scattered heavy showers. 

Edited June 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

GFS 06Z OP isn't inspiring for fans of heat and it's actually a tad worse than the 00Z in terms of rain but not as cold.

GEM had the Scenario A evolution this morning and that looks the best we can hope for at this time. Both ECM and GFS are more progressive and keep the LP systems moving off the Atlantic across the British Isles. I also have to say both show rising heights in the mid-Atlantic further into June which would land us in Scenario B with the trough over us.  

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all

GFS 06Z OP isn't inspiring for fans of heat and it's actually a tad worse than the 00Z in terms of rain but not as cold.

I was actually impressed how similar the 0z was to the 6z op. A sure sign that the models have a good handle on a wet couple of weeks or so.

[Captain Shortwave]

I think there is good confidence to the middle of next week as we see the Atlantic trough slowly move east but....

      

We have heights rising strongly to our east and to be honest it isn't far away from beginning to influence our weather, given we are looking at 1 week plus away then we could easily see a correction east of the pattern which could dramatically change the outcome for the UK. Most likely is unsettled but still quite warm, but the hot and thundery option is on the table at the moment, the ECM op does get temperatures back into the mid-high twenties briefly on the 00z during this timeframe. Something to watch and not to write off just yet.

[Frosty.]

I notice the Gem 12z is indicating some continental warmth / humidity later next week with similar conditions to what the southeast will experience tomorrow.. i.e.. an increasing risk of thunderstorms with very warm spells of sunshine and temps into the mid / upper 20's celsius. 

Edited June 1, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I notice the Gem 12z is indicating some continental warmth / humidity later next week with similar conditions to what the southeast will experience tomorrow.. i.e.. an increasing risk of thunderstorms with very warm spells of sunshine and temps into the mid / upper 20's celsius. 

Shorts for election if that happens! shame GEM is very minor model

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS not too bad though, maybe trending that way, but not sure how to post charts on Microsoft Edge

 

 

 

Edited June 1, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Summer Sun]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS not too bad though, maybe trending that way, but not sure how to post charts on Microsoft Edge

 

 

 

 

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