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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
15 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

According to Wikipedia a heatwave is a prolonged period of above average temperatures

The models are showing a breakdown starting tomorrow after a couple of days of above average temps.

So, no, this hasn't been a heatwave.

3 days of 25C and above when including Saturday (which should exceed 25C widely once again).

For many places the temperatures have been 10C+ above the norm for 3 days straight.

Not long-lasting enough to be a heatwave, perhaps, but you're really just debating semantics. Most May's don't have period

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
43 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

According to Wikipedia a heatwave is a prolonged period of above average temperatures

The models are showing a breakdown starting tomorrow after a couple of days of above average temps.

So, no, this hasn't been a heatwave.

I just think you're being very pedantic. In your initial post you suggested 'times must be desperate' as well- I don't quite understand this. May is running a good deal above average, so why would people be desperate?

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Whoops, didn't get to finish my post, and now I can't edit it! I meant to say 'Most May's don't have periods of weather similar to this'.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
51 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Bbc going for 23 to 25 degrees again midweek onwards for the south east! This is great news as I have the week off and then going to Mauritius lol 

Love Mauritius I am half Mauritian myself. Should be around mid 20s with a similar UV there too not bad for their winter hey! Make sure you visit pereybere and ile Aux cerfs beaches two of the best!. I'm off there next easter:-)

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
2 hours ago, cheese said:

Three consecutive days above 25C in May is very unusual. Last happened in 2012. 

It also happened here in 1995 and 2003, for what it's worth - and we all know what those summers were like (although the less said about 2012 the better!).

1995 was a hot mid- late summer. 2003 piping hot August got to 38c here in kent! 2012 the London Olympics had some decent warm sunny weather most of the time too!

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Woke up to thunder and a half hour down pour here in Gravesend! I've noticed the BBC local temperatures have slowly been going down over the last 24hours. Now only a max of 24- 25c in London as opposed to the 29--30c some were predicting. Who says GFS always undercooks temperatures? It's seems to be time and again in winter or summer when there is a lot of uncertainty the GFS has its fair share of times when it is more accurate than some of the other models

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
12 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Woke up to thunder and a half hour down pour here in Gravesend! I've noticed the BBC local temperatures have slowly been going down over the last 24hours. Now only a max of 24- 25c in London as opposed to the 29--30c some were predicting. Who says GFS always undercooks temperatures? It's seems to be time and again in winter or summer when there is a lot of uncertainty the GFS has its fair share of times when it is more accurate than some of the other models

Hottest temperatures were always forecast to be ahead pf the thunderstorms pushing through the country as we speak, so eastern England will be the hot spot today.

arpegeuk-41-14-0.png?27-06  

As the weekend progresses, looks like the south east will hold onto the warmth throughout the Bank holiday with heavy rain and thunderstorms for the rest of the UK, though the SE isn't immune.

Sunday looks decent for most though fresher in most places.

arpegeuk-41-38-0.png?27-06

Monday we see a clear split with areas under the cloud and rain really struggling (There is still some disagreement on this).

arpegeuk-41-62-0.png?27-06   

Still uncertainty on the track of the system on Sunday night and hence where could get wet and where could remain pretty warm with some sunny spells.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

If this goes ahead we could be in for another hot spell mid June (Temperatures showing 27 in the East) with the 00z

SUMMER HOT.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

As north-south temperature splits go...

nmmuk-0-39-0.png?28-07

looks like almost everywhere else / east split

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Bank Holiday Everyone. As we move into Summer expect the seasonal weather . drier spells . warm, feeling cold, thunderstorms , snow on the Scottish Mountains , just normal weather as we approach  Summer:rofl:

elan.png

elanx.png

trump......jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Uh oh, ANYWEATHER is posting - that can only mean one thing: the models are showing weather most of us don't want!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Looks like there will be an area of arctic heights between Greenland and Svalbard whilst we see heights remain over Europe, given the proximity it is the question of whether we can keep a blocked pattern and hence set up a warm or very warm and dry scenario or whether we see more changeable conditions develop by the end of the week.

Main models at day 6

ECM1-144.GIF?28-0  UW144-21.GIF?28-18   gfs-0-144.png?12

Different solutions between the ECM/UKMO and GFS, no surprise there, that said no output suggests anything particularly dreadful (cool and wet), just some rain at times, fairly warm so not too bad and always the possibility of dragging very warm air from the south or south east, nothing scorching but mid to high twenties would be possible if it did happen.

I guess we can look at this in more detail once tonight excitement is over. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
47 minutes ago, cheese said:

Uh oh, ANYWEATHER is posting - that can only mean one thing: the models are showing weather most of us don't want!

Good Night!!!!:rofl::rofl::rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Nothing much being said in her at the moment....and I can see why!! Looking distinctly average, after high pressure loses its grip towards the end of the week in the east we are probably going to be in an unsettled rut for a while. Can't see a route out at present, but things change as we all know.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

This mornings Ecm is positively pathetic for June, i booked the first 2 weeks of june off some months ago hoping for the best, i should have known better, looks dreadful for much of Europe away from the more southern parts thanks to northern blocking and southerly tracking lows...great.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

As soon as we entered winter last yr things started to fall apart for cold lovers. As soon as we enter summer things dont look too great either for summer lovers,for the time being anyway. Or what is showing could be just a blip? Would not be surprised in the slightest if after many months of often dry weather the rain returns with a vengence just in time for summer season.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Well, with a few lows zipping across the south it looks like the drought concerns should ease..

ECMOPEU00_216_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

This mornings Ecm is positively pathetic for June, i booked the first 2 weeks of june off some months ago hoping for the best, i should have known better, looks dreadful for much of Europe away from the more southern parts thanks to northern blocking and southerly tracking lows...great.

Not that bad, 'at least it will be mild' GFS similar too

;h850t850eu.png

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

This mornings Ecm is positively pathetic for June, i booked the first 2 weeks of june off some months ago hoping for the best, i should have known better, looks dreadful for much of Europe away from the more southern parts thanks to northern blocking and southerly tracking lows...great.

Certainly looks like a mixed bag as we go into June. Nothing wrong with those that try to look ahead with the different indicies ie glaam , mjo ,qbo etc etc etc  remembering of course that these predictions, thoughts, or musings call them what you want often go the way of the pear.

 

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