Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

If we can maximise on heat and sunshine this weekend, this spell may just be worth remembering! 

It's already worth remembering

Cracking spell, hot and sunny for the next few days then thunderstorms risk increasing from Saturday.

Edited May 25, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

The latest fax has the front slightly further east at midday Saturday....going to be very touch and go whether the SE can hold on to enough clear weather to hit 30c before it moves in!

[MP-R]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's already worth remembering

Cracking spell, hot and sunny for the next few days then thunderstorms risk increasing from Saturday.

If it's as sunny as this at the weekend it will be 

[Gordon Webb]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's already worth remembering

Cracking spell, hot and sunny for the next few days then thunderstorms risk increasing from Saturday.

calling it the next few days is stretching it a little , it's really only today and tomorrow away from the E and SE and if the chart from the post below is anything to go by even that is debateable but it's still a good spell of weather nontheless however long it lasts

Edited May 25, 2017 by Gordon Webb

[stainesbloke]

33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The latest fax has the front slightly further east at midday Saturday....going to be very touch and go whether the SE can hold on to enough clear weather to hit 30c before it moves in!

Interesting chart, to me that first cold front marks a line of instability, the cooler air really comes in behind the second cold front. So the E half of the country could well see 30C if sunny, with the W half much cooler. All to be decided still. 

[stodge]

Morning all

Considerable divergence in the morning output between GEM/ECM and GFS OP. The former build back northern heights and stop the mid-Atlantic LP which we need to throw the Azores HP ridge over the British Isles but GFS is much keener on a northerly-tracking jet, significant LP over Iceland/Greenland and successive ridges of HP building over the British Isles as we go through the first week of June.

GEM 00Z OP at T+240:

GFS 06Z OP at T+234:

Take out the heights, take the jet further north and Bob's your Auntie's live-in lover if you want fine weather.

I spoke a while back about Scenario A and Scenario B - I now need to introduce Scenario C which is in effect the "winter solution"  whereby strong HP over the Azores and a northerly tracking jet keeps the LP systems to the far NW and the British isles under the long ridge. Pressure is low over Iberia and occasionally that pushes north enough to interrupt the fine spell with a few thunderstorms before the HP re-asserts. The Iberian "heat low" helps prop up the Azores ridge and deflects it more NE than just E and as the whole scenario aligns SW-NE, the ridge stretches across the British isles into Scandinavia and links to heights to the NE.

In winter, this would result in cold, still conditions for the British isles with frost and fog and a weak continental drift advecting colder air across the south in particular. In summer, of course, it's a recipe for heat, haze and pollution but that's another story.

GEM is classic Scenario A - the Azores HP is suppressed and strong heights over Greenland send the jet south and keep weak areas of LP crossing the British Isles with rain and showers in tow and temperatures below normal. Note the very different pressure patterns over Scandinavia.

 

 

[mb018538]

Let's hope the 6z is on the right track. Low pressure kept at arms length, high pressure ridging in to keep things generally fine (better towards the SE, more chance of rain NW, though by no means a washout). No big heat showing there, but we could expect temps in the 20-23c region, perhaps a tad warmer at times as the warmer air creeps back in.

[Frosty.]

Well it certainly feels like summer has come early..enjoy the sunny increasingly hot weather during today, tomorrow and into saturday.

[Frosty.]

Looking further ahead to next week and beyond, the GEFS 6z mean indicates plenty of fine and warm weather across southern uk under ridging with most of any unsettled atlantic weather generally across  north / northwest uk but even those areas would have some pleasant spells too. In the meantime, the hot settled spell will last into the weekend before a thundery breakdown followed by cooler, fresher and brighter conditions spreading across the north and west with sunshine and showers but the south / southeast are likely to remain warm and humid on sun / mon with sunshine and heavy showers / thunderstorms.

Edited May 25, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

25 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking further ahead to next week and beyond, the GEFS 6z mean indicates plenty of fine and warm weather across southern uk under ridging with most of any unsettled atlantic weather generally across  north / northwest uk but even those areas would have some pleasant spells too. In the meantime, the hot settled spell will last into the weekend before a thundery breakdown followed by cooler, fresher and brighter conditions spreading across the north and west with sunshine and showers but the south / southeast are likely to remain warm and humid on sun / mon with sunshine and heavy showers / thunderstorms.

Hope so Frosty!



Sadly the 6z GFS OP was on the warm side, and on the dry side when compared to the other members. Plenty of unsettled and cooler options there. I think it's going to be hard to nail down, as the models are really struggling with the thundery and slow moving nature of the weather patterns at the moment. Keep your eyes peeled.

[Ciderwithrosie]

8 hours ago, shaky said:

Yes and maybe even suck up more hot air from spain and africa which  could potentially mean another hot period of weather coming up!!

Thank you shaky :-) 

[TJS1998Tom]

Quote

 

Thunderstorm risk increasing for Saturday evening with 12z, especially for Northern England

[The PIT]

Today it's looking tomorrow may be a different story. Plenty of times we've had ideal looking conditions for nothing to happen or storms popping up in places where they weren't forecast.

[Captain Shortwave]

Things not looking too bad after this weekend with high pressure potentially building back in from the south west.

GFS/UKMO

   

The UKMO more bullish about this, but rain look restricted to the north and west.

GEFs similar with the Euro ridge gaining more of an influence after slipping away slightly.

   

So whilst not as fine and sunny as this week, next week doesn't look bad and still pretty warm, especially in the south and east.

Nearer the present, 29C forecast for the Moray Firth tomorrow and in eastern England on Saturday, 30C still possible in the east on Saturday if the conditions remain sunny for long enough. 

Edited May 25, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[mb018538]

12z isn't bad really, high pressure not giving way to full on low pressure yet. Looks like the traditional NW/SE split may develop through the week, potentially warm at times in the SE.

[Dominic Carey]

Im happy that were finally getting some decent weather and with the prospect of more middle of next week is great 

[Frosty.]

Gorgeous summery charts on the Ecm 12z..not distant FI day 10 fantasy..its tomorrow and Saturday! Temps soaring into the 80's F with hot sunshine followed by an increasing risk of T-Storms on sat and overnight into sun..It stays warm and humid in the s / se through sun / mon too with a risk of thundery showers and some warm sunshine too followed by a ridge building NE with plenty of fine and warm weather returning to the s / e, at least for a time..and all this before summer even begins!

[knocker]

The ecm is positively Arctic on Monday north of a line Bristol to the Wash with max temps down to 10C in some northern counties

[Matthew.]

If this high can just keep its foot in to the east things could get very warm again but I realise this could be asking a little too much

[Ice Man 85]

Normal temperatures will suit me. Our homes are designed to store heat, not expel it. Makes sleeping in what will easily be 16/17c over the next 2 nights very difficult.

[Ice Man 85]

17 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm is positively Arctic on Monday north of a line Bristol to the Wash with max temps down to 10C in some northern counties

Now you're talking my language

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Fax for Sat, looks still hot, north and east of main front, trough over the UK though could be big storms

Edited May 25, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Summer Sun]

GFS could be under doing the temps by as much as 6c for some areas tomorrow - not good considering it's less than 24hrs out and can't get closer

GFS                                                                Met office

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS could be under doing the temps by as much as 6c for some areas tomorrow - not good considering it's less than 24hrs out and can't get closer

GFS                                                                Met office

Aye, SS; the GFS is really undercooking things, I think? It's great to see the MetO coming up trumps, yet again?

Edited May 25, 2017 by Ed Stone

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, SS; the GFS is really undercooking thins, I think? It's great to see the MetO coming up trumps, yet again?

To be fair the ecm is not much better Nor is the hrs gfs and it was terrible today.

Edited May 25, 2017 by knocker