Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Man With Beard]

Something I've never seen before on the GFS 06Z

   

Notice the heat low over France at T90 travels back westwards, ending up over Ireland by T114. You'd normally expect it to travel north or east.

A recipe to suck up continental heat if you ask me. Temperatures will greatly depend on how much plume heat gets ahead of the low by Saturday, and then cloud/rain amounts. Doesn't look like at 32C to me, but weaken the low over France and temperatures will probably end up higher.

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Something I've never seen before on the GFS 06Z

   

Notice the heat low over France at T90 travels back westwards, ending up over Ireland by T114. You'd normally expect it to travel north or east.

A recipe to suck up continental heat if you ask me. Temperatures will greatly depend on how much plume heat gets ahead of the low by Saturday, and then cloud/rain amounts. Doesn't look like at 32C to me, but weaken the low over France and temperatures will probably end up higher.

It has been tending this for a couple of days MWB. The way I see it, just my opinion of course  is that it tracks in this direction for two reasons. I) the blocking high pressure to the east is aligned just right and 2) the circulation of the destructed trough inclines it this way. A different story a couple of days later.

[Frosty.]

In a nutshell, the Gfs 6z looks very pleasant with warm sunny spells for the rest of this week and temperatures into the 20's celsius.

[Frosty.]

it looks excellent, a real taste of summer on the way, much hotter than the Gfs 6z shows for the weekend with temps soaring to 30c+ and plenty of sunshine but with an uncertain thundery breakdown from the w / sw at some point during the BH weekend..its a bonus though as the meteorological summer doesn't start until later next week. :- )

[Optimus Prime]

A phenomenal end to a really good spring. One of the warmest March & May's of the last hundred years and the outlook looks solidly warm to me into next week. Lake district will be stunning this weekend. 

 

 

[stodge]

Afternoon all

No time and with events elsewhere not much inclination to dwell on the weather in all honesty.

To me, GFS 6Z OP shows a clear thundery breakdown on Saturday as an LP develops over France and swings NW across south west England and southern Ireland so perhaps the most rain in those areas and by Monday a shallow showery trough across the south with the strong probability of some heavy showers and t'storms.

Beyond that, the mid Atlantic LP encourages a ridge from the Azores HP to spread across so settling things down next week again but not perhaps as warm.

The Control ends with heights to the NW, LP over France and a weak but warm and unstable E'ly across southern parts. 

[SizzlingHeat]

rain across the south west by morning on saturday. this 12z is bringing the breakdown in much quicker (again) already. Have a bbq planned for saturday and considering its been showing hot and sunny practically the entire of the last 5 days, this is not what i was hoping for! The 6z deflected the low out to sea with the heavy showers with it, but this is far more progressive. Not sure I can believe the gfs wants to break it down so quickly. Surely an outlier...surely?? 

edit: rain spreading across entire country during saturday daytime now, stark contrast to the 6z????

Edited May 23, 2017 by SizzlingHeat

[Gordon Webb]

35 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

rain across the south west by morning on saturday. this 12z is bringing the breakdown in much quicker (again) already. Have a bbq planned for saturday and considering its been showing hot and sunny practically the entire of the last 5 days, this is not what i was hoping for! The 6z deflected the low out to sea with the heavy showers with it, but this is far more progressive. Not sure I can believe the gfs wants to break it down so quickly. Surely an outlier...surely?? 

edit: rain spreading across entire country during saturday daytime now, stark contrast to the 6z????

I would take it with a pinch of salt at the moment if it's such a contrast to previous runs , of course in 4 runs time still the same the maybe take some notice

[I remember Atlantic 252]

37 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

rain across the south west by morning on saturday. this 12z is bringing the breakdown in much quicker (again) already. Have a bbq planned for saturday and considering its been showing hot and sunny practically the entire of the last 5 days, this is not what i was hoping for! The 6z deflected the low out to sea with the heavy showers with it, but this is far more progressive. Not sure I can believe the gfs wants to break it down so quickly. Surely an outlier...surely?? 

edit: rain spreading across entire country during saturday daytime now, stark contrast to the 6z????

Yes, Friday looks like last hot sunny day, of this spell anyway, Sat much cooler and cloudier away from the SE, brought forward by 24 hours

[TJS1998Tom]

With the 12z, looks like there's a bit of an increased chance in storm risk for Saturday in the Northern parts of the country

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, Friday looks like last hot sunny day, of this spell anyway, Sat much cooler and cloudier away from the SE, brought forward by 24 hours

Lets wait.... I seriously hope not as I have a barbeque planned for Saturday. The UKMO on the other hand is less progressive like this mornings ECM so fingers crossed it is an outlier......

[SizzlingHeat]

3 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

With the 12z, looks like there's a bit of an increased chance in storm risk for Saturday in the Northern parts of the country

the bbc will need to significantly revise their '30 degrees' outlook for saturday if this comes off. Shame

[SizzlingHeat]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, Friday looks like last hot sunny day, of this spell anyway, Sat much cooler and cloudier away from the SE, brought forward by 24 hours

Yes, ever since sunday the high has been forecast to slip away more quickly with each run. Its starting to become borderline whether friday will be entirely warm and dry now too. come thursday, no doubt the high will be gone at this rate. 'another' failed to materialise warm spell. Tomorrow isnt particularly sunny now, so thursday and friday are no the only real 'warmer days' and even then only around 22-24 celcius as opposed to the forecasted 25-29c a couple of days ago. 

Even the latest live forecast, darren bett look very edgy regarding the end of the week. less optimistic and appeared less confident.

Edited May 23, 2017 by SizzlingHeat

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z is looking good, becoming very warm or hot with plenty of sunshine, increasing humidity and a thundery breakdown on saturday, sunday looks cooler / fresher before the azores high builds in early next week which leads to another reload of heat / humidity and risk of T-Storms..a rinse and repeat pattern of the above would be my idea of perfect.

Edited May 23, 2017 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly good scope for storms in the South/E as a weak front pushes in off the Channel on Sunday/Monday.

Edited May 23, 2017 by Polar Maritime
Wrong bearing.

[stainesbloke]

24 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Yes, ever since sunday the high has been forecast to slip away more quickly with each run. Its starting to become borderline whether friday will be entirely warm and dry now too. come thursday, no doubt the high will be gone at this rate. 'another' failed to materialise warm spell. Tomorrow isnt particularly sunny now, so thursday and friday are no the only real 'warmer days' and even then only around 22-24 celcius as opposed to the forecasted 25-29c a couple of days ago. 

Even the latest live forecast, darren bett look very edgy regarding the end of the week. less optimistic and appeared less confident.

Absolute rubbish. You've been spouting your negativity for a couple of days now. So, one run of a model that is renowned for being too progressive and it's all over? The latest BBC forecast I saw was still showing possibly 30C for the weekend and the fax charts are not showing a rapid breakdown at all, with only the far W affected by showers or storms until Sunday. I'm not saying a quicker breakdown won't happen but the 12z GFS isn't really supported by other main models at the moment...

Edited May 23, 2017 by stainesbloke

[Polar Maritime]

Lets please keep BBC forecasts/screen-shots and discussion to the relevant thread.

Thanks. 

Edited May 23, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Britneyfan]

The south east looks toasty! 

Even next week the south east will manage temps ranging 22 to 25 

[SizzlingHeat]

11 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Absolute rubbish. You've been spouting your negativity for a couple of days now. So, one run of a model that is renowned for being too progressive and it's all over? The latest BBC forecast I saw was still showing possibly 30C for the weekend and the fax charts are not showing a rapid breakdown at all, with only the far W affected by showers or storms until Sunday. I'm not saying a quicker breakdown won't happen but the 12z GFS isn't really supported by other main models at the moment...

Fully supported by the gem and ukmo. Ecm ensembles not as supportive as operational. You can't argue things haven't turned in favour of the gfs? Far more progressive outlook across the board for a leak of the higher temps out east during the first part of the weekend. I believe the BBC are hanging on to the ecm operational as much as they can but I still cannot phathom 30 celcius at all. Even mid twenties a push from recent output.

It's not negatively, it's being realistic. There has been more and more similar runs from recent gfs runs including gem and ukmo. It just isn't looking the same as it was say this time 2 days ago. Yes,there are occasional runs like the 6z and ecm which prolong the warmth but more and more similar runs akin to the 12z are showing their hand. As much as I would love to keep the heat for the entire weekend, especially as having a big BBQ during the day Saturday I just don't feel confident any more and expecting the BBC to come on board with the breakdown on Saturday before the evening is out. 10-12 c isotherm in late may with showers just isnt supportive of 30 degrees. 

[mb018538]

To those of you pinning things on the gfs run, I suggest you take a peek in the model tweet thread. Knocker posted a nice tweet showing that the gfs has problems at the moment and has only been verifying at around 75%, which is very poor.....should be over 90%. Until it's fixed I'd follow the Ukmo and ecm instead!

[stainesbloke]

13 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Fully supported by the gem and ukmo. Ecm ensembles not as supportive as operational. You can't argue things haven't turned in favour of the gfs? Far more progressive outlook across the board for a leak of the higher temps out east during the first part of the weekend. I believe the BBC are hanging on to the ecm operational as much as they can but I still cannot phathom 30 celcius at all. Even mid twenties a push from recent output.

It's not negatively, it's being realistic. There has been more and more similar runs from recent gfs runs including gem and ukmo. It just isn't looking the same as it was say this time 2 days ago. Yes,there are occasional runs like the 6z and ecm which prolong the warmth but more and more similar runs akin to the 12z are showing their hand. As much as I would love to keep the heat for the entire weekend, especially as having a big BBQ during the day Saturday I just don't feel confident any more and expecting the BBC to come on board with the breakdown on Saturday before the evening is out. 10-12 c isotherm in late may with showers just isnt supportive of 30 degrees. 

Again, I don't agree. I've not looked at the GEM but the UKMO chart for Saturday shows most of the country very warm or hot with fronts barely touching the W. Might well be cooler and possibly thundery for the SW and your area though, with that trough edging in.

[Frosty.]

lol, the Gfs has problems..shock

It's looking very good for those of us who love very warm weather.

[SizzlingHeat]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Again, I don't agree. I've not looked at the GEM but the UKMO chart for Saturday shows most of the country very warm or hot with fronts barely touching the W. Might well be cooler and possibly thundery for the SW and your area though, with that trough edging in.

I fully believe that to be conservative at the very least. I would love that to be the case don't get me wrong but just expect the worst.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Again, I don't agree. I've not looked at the GEM but the UKMO chart for Saturday shows most of the country very warm or hot with fronts barely touching the W. Might well be cooler and possibly thundery for the SW and your area though, with that trough edging in.

out of date Fax chart, is updating now on meteociel

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, SizzlingHeat said:

I fully believe that to be conservative at the very least. I would love that to be the case don't get me wrong but just expect the worst.

Do you work for the Met Office and have secret information that we don't? It's probably wise in the UK to expect the worst, for sure, but I certainly don't blindly believe the GFS.