Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[knocker]

Yes just to confuse things this evening the ecm has renewed ridging to the west towards the end of next week that swats the trough away, That leaves the option of a thundery low developing over Iberia with instability drifting north. I suspect it will be a couple of days before this is nailed down to any detailed extent.

[northwestsnow]

Middle of next week onwards looks lovely for many, should be some warm weather around as the high drifts north, bit concerned that by next weekend that trough may begin to spoil things, always a posibilty with strong heights to the north west..still should hopefully be a good 3or 4 days of warm stuff so no complaints..

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Brilliant charts but just watch it all erode away until we're left with 22/23C in the far south east for just one day only.

[knocker]

The EPS ens mean looking quite peachy and hanging in there

[TJS1998Tom]

Hello, I'm new here. Some good looking charts for the 18z run tonight with thundery breakdown risk end of next week

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, 40*C said:

Brilliant charts but just watch it all erode away until we're left with 22/23C in the far south east for just one day only.

18z turns into a scorchio lasting right into bank holiday weekend. No downgrades just yet!!

This is 9.am next Sunday 28th.

[Daniel*]

19 minutes ago, 40*C said:

18z turns into a scorchio lasting right into bank holiday weekend. No downgrades just yet!!

This is 9.am next Sunday 28th.

Indeed a nice summery plume being projected for this time next weekend a nice southerly waft dragging up some very warm air, widely temperatures in the mid 20s; approaching 30C/86F in prone 'hot spots' I would think. Culminating into a thundery breakdown? Yes, please!  

[samadamsuk]

I bring nothing to the table whatsoever when I say, good stuff! Lots of biking, swimming and bbqing for me next week!

[knocker]

The Azores high pressure starts it's influential progress from the south west later today initiating the start of a dry, warm week for all, albeit N.I and Scotland remain in the westerly showery regime until Tuesday. Thus by 12z Wednesday the high cell is over the Bristol Channel bringing some very respectable temps to the south but with a large geographic variation. Model temps are notoriously unreliable plus the precise orientation of the high plays a role so not to get too hung up on detail.

This essentially is the story for the rest of the week with the center of the high slowly drifting east Simultaneously the trough to the west slides slowly ESE and slowly comes to a halt against the ridge. So by 18z Saturday the UK is in a S/SE drift with temps still above average and a situation ideal for unstable shallow low pressure areas to form to the south and drift north affecting Britain whilst at the same advecting some very warm air. This is the picture that the gfs is painting this morning but not to forget this over a week away which is a long time in meteorology.

So in a nutshell a dry, warm (perhaps very warm, week ahead with the possibility of the BH going out with a bang.

[knocker]

I was going to add this to the post but cannot these days

[Matthew.]

I wouldnt be surprised to see the 80f/27c threshold being reached somewhere south from Wednesday onwards.  

[knocker]

An example of taking nothing for granted as we get towards the end of next week. The ecm this morning is going in for a quite complex scenario which no doubt will be modified by later runs but it's not without interest.

By Friday there is a negatively tilted upper trough mid Atlantic which 24 hours later has spawned a quite intense surface low to the SW of the UK whilst at the same time a shallow low over Iberia tracks NW and deepens to phase in with it. Thus by 00z Sunday we have these two lows to the W/SW and HP to the N/E and the UK in a warm south easterly drift.

From this position in the next 24 hours a shallow low pressure covers an area Iberia/France/UK with some quite intense thundery outbreaks indicated in all of these areas which would produce a very interesting Monday. But that's a long way off.

 

 

Edited May 20, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

I wonder if somewhere in the south could hit 30c during the bank holiday weekend if ECM is going the right way?

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts have moved towards the idea of a block, see the links, with troughing down its western side. So supporting the idea of a settled 6-10 day outlook, at least to start, with fairly warm air being pulled up from a southerly point. How thundery as time goes on will be decided nearer the time on the synoptic models.

Perhaps several days of warmth for many areas?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Summer Sun]

A settled UKMO once again

[Captain Shortwave]

Something is not right at the moment 

      

Yep a bank holiday weekend with good support for fine and warm or very warm conditions prevailing, a good set of ens from the ECM with winds generally coming from the south or south east. Mean 850s up to 12C in the south and the 8C isotherm covering the UK. Mid or even high twenties likely from this set up, pretty widely across the UK too. (GEFs in agreement too btw)

Overall the outlook looks decent with good spells of sunshine, light winds and temperatures above normal from tomorrow onwards, just a weak front moving east Monday into Tuesday with the next ridge building in which will then dominate for the rest of the forecast period up to day 10 though with the risk of more mixed conditions developing right at the end as the pattern flattens out somewhat with a westerly flow potentially developing after day 10. A long way to go from then but a pretty lengthy spell of summer like weather could be on the way. 

[Singularity]

A tricky detail to resolve is whether the surface flow around the ridge will bring some fresher air across central/northern France early-mid week which then comes our way Thu-Sat as the flow turns to the SE. GFS has been keen on this for two runs in a row now, though not as much so on the 06z as the 00z, but the 18z GFS and from the looks of it 00z ECM both keep the fresher air to the east of France, as does the 00z GEM for that matter.

By the weekend the setup looks very interesting with a good consensus now for broad quasi-stationary trough to take shape S. of Greenland which should help to keep HP in place across the North Sea or perhaps closer to us than that, with shallow lows in the heat plume struggling to make much progress N or NE from the near continent, though some erosion of the ridge at times to bring about slack conditions with thunderstorm potential is certainly plausible as the 00z ECM shows. Quite the contrast with Scandinavia where late wintry blast is looking likely days 7-10 - but this is a common theme when the UK has fine spells. The question going forward is then whether the associated trough sinks south enough for our ridge to extend NE over it or even attempt an escape. Hopefully if it tries the latter, a new ridge will follow on from the southwest and perhaps link up much as the GFS 06z toys around with.

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful runs this morning with temps widely in the 20s wed onwards, the only fly in the ointment is the meto update which is suggesting things break down through next weekend and into the new week, we' ll see..

[damianslaw]

Quite a turnaround in the past 48-72 hours or so, I haven't been looking at the models much over the past few days.. A late May warm settled spell is showing up, how long it lasts certainly questionable, and it will be a wait and see watch. There is a strong chance thundery outbreaks and shallow heat low/trough action could invade from the south west as we enter next weekend, spoiling the party, conversely the ridge could hold up strong over the country killing off any such developments. Mid 20' maxima certainly plausible for many come Thursday, making it feel very summery, some spots could hit high 20's.. nothing too unusual for late May though.

Longer term.. signs of strong heights building far to the NE once again, ridging out of NW Russia, and a return to northern blocking, low pressure/trough action will either stay away, or unfortunately set up shop directly over us from the SW, much like this week...

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Beautiful runs this morning with temps widely in the 20s wed onwards, the only fly in the ointment is the meto update which is suggesting things break down through next weekend and into the new week, we' ll see..

Was posting chart, anyone know how to post charts on Microsoft Edge?

 

[Britneyfan]

Hi I am new here but looks like somewhere could hit 28 degrees this week  

[Summer Sun]

I wonder if GFS is under doing the temps as early as Monday it shows a high of 21c the beeb are saying 24c

 

[Polar Maritime]

Do consider the GFS chart is for 6pm, With the screenshot being 3pm.

[DTHFCJ]

Looking very pleasant....... 

[Summer Sun]

39 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Do consider the GFS chart is for 6pm, With the screenshot being 3pm.

3pm chart is not much different tbh from the 6pm one