Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Scorcher]

32 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Not much sign of anything that much above average temp wise on GFS 12Z, looks like the fine pleasant weather is slowly going to be eroded in the upcoming week with damp southwesterly weather moving in next weekend, let's hope the past weeks glorious cool easterly can make a return after a brief blip next weekend.

Eugene, you said we would have a cold, or in your words 'below average' week last week- almost every day was above average here by day. And today we made 19C when nobody really expected it a few days ago. So I would wait and see over the next few days. 

With that low to the west of the UK towards the latter part of the week it certainly won't be cold- and the ECM is still showing hints that something warmer may follow.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All and I hope you have had a great weekend with the fine weather helping as well!!! Going into this week will see a lot of fine weather , a little blip as the Atlantic awakens late week into the weekend and perhaps early next week but both models hint of high pressure building across the nation , although gfs is tooing and froing  but ecm suggests a build of pressure from day eight with perhaps our first plume. But I must say Farmers and Growers will be thank full of any showers late week , because I don't see any meaningfull rain for the rest of the month...and as a result Greeland as had a lttite suface melt across the southern half  because of Northern Blocking and a Strong Positive Artic Ocisllation , but not surprising with the sun not setting over the Artic at this time of year Nothing new under the sun.,

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Quite a tasty looking 18z for summer heat fans, temps up to mid 20's for most and lasting for a number of days.... More runs needed before we all go into excite mode !!

[weatherguru14]

1 minute ago, 40*C said:

Quite a tasty looking 18z for summer heat fans, temps up to mid 20's for most and lasting for a number of days.... More runs needed before we all go into excite mode !!

shame that chart is 10 days away!

[Snowy L]

The possible warm spell is too far away to take seriously, but the big 3 models are all very similar at t144.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Seems to tie in well with the MO updates of a warm spell come mid May

[knocker]

There were major differences last evening between the gfs and ecm in the 6-10 period and these will have to be resolved before that period can be viewed with any confidence.

In fact looking at the gfs det. output this morning it's drastically changed it's stance on the handling of the Atlantic trough from 12 hours ago which in itself doesn't fill one with confidence.

Anyway, no doubt to the relief of many, the high pressure tracks rapidly west in the next couple of days taking the cloudy, cool, north easterly with it, to be replaced by the trough descending from Greenland and temporarily putting the UK in a col.

Thus the whole of the eastern Atlantic becomes dominated by the trough which is being fed from the central US around the south of the block which is now over Canada. This leads to complex low pressure area to the south west which by 12z Friday sees a shallow low over the UK bringing some showery rain, nothing of any note, with temps around average.

This general set up continues over the weekend but unlike last evening the major trough is drifting west allowing the high pressure to push north in the east. This is a h/t towards the ecm thinking.

So the question still remains, will the ridge become more dominant or will it yet again be squashed by the pincer movement east from the troughs upstream? Looking at this morning's GEFS one would have to side with the latter.

Edited May 8, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

Although varying in detail towards the end the ecm is not a million miles away from the gfs with both having HP building in the Atlantic at the end of the ten days. But at the moment the percentage play is that this is not a permanent fixture but a transition to a familiar pattern that involves the interplay and phasing of the warmer air pushing north and the cooler tracking east which would lead to a N/S split over the UK Of course I could well be wrong.

[mb018538]

I will reserve judgement on this heat being modelled. Almost the same thing was shown a couple of weeks ago for a few runs, but as it got nearer we've ended up with this awful easterly for what seems like forever. Let's hope this time we come up trumps, at least warmth from this direction should be more widely felt.

[Matthew.]

Next week Much warmer generally from the ECM

[Summer Sun]

Some pretty warm charts again from ECM as we head into the 2nd half of May

Once this easterly clears away in the next 48 hours or so we'll finally start and see temps rising more widely with the potential for something very warm for a time next week especially in central and southern areas

[Man With Beard]

Interesting charts at the moment. Most charts suggesting a chance of something much warmer by this time next week - even a chance of getting into the 80s on this morning's ECM.

However ...

The preferred route of the models right now suggests a front passing from SW to NE at the same period. So the quality of weather will depend greatly on how close this front gets to us.

And ... it's a pretty complicated pattern to get through before T192. The N Atlantic High has to fully retrogress into Canada, low pressure needs to get established in the Atlantic and stay in situ long enough for heights to build around the bottom.

Looks nice, but low confidence. And that said, my garden does not think it looks nice anyway #needrain #yellowgrass #drought

[mb018538]

6z following the 00z route....but as MWB says above, there are a LOT of pieces that need to fall right for the high to build properly and deliver warm weather. All went wrong last time, so I will wait for another 2-3 days before holding judgement. It's been so very dry, and barring some rain from front coming from the south by the end of the week, there doesn't appear to be any prolonged rain in any forecasts at the moment.

[knocker]

The EPS is not adverse to a little warm up and in the ext period looking at ridging to our west so generally a flow north of west which would portend some quite pleasant weather , albeit temps perhaps around average, with most of the unsettled weather confined to the north. It wouldn't signal anything significant vis rainfall.

[knocker]

Not that one should take too much notice of the model precipitation charts, certainly out into the blue yonder, but the GEFs does indicate little rain in the next 16 days

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows an NW/SE split by Sunday warmer for all under a southwesterly flow

[knocker]

For anyone taking a break to Spain/Portugal some serious heat a possibility

[Summer Sun]

GFS shows temperatures recovering nicely almost tropical in the east next week mid-20s for a time?

[Matthew.]

UKMO looking positive at 144h

[Matthew.]

An excellent chart from the ECM at 192h with a hot southerly

High pressure perfectly placed to the Se

Edited May 8, 2017 by Summer 1976

[Summer Sun]

ECM is certainly consistent for the warm up next week

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM is certainly consistent for the warm up next week

Unfortunately that high pressure build is not as strong as on previous runs- it would probably be a 2 day warm spell max as the high gets swept away by Wednesday on this run.

GFS also shows something similar which is unfortunate. Let's just hope it doesn't disappear altogether in the next few runs.

[damianslaw]

Immediate term - more of the same, but by Thursday pressure is set to fall both to our NW and SW, with frontal disturbances ready to invade the country, however, heights from the azores want to ridge in as well, so we are likely to end up with a NW-SE divide by the end of the week. Some rain from the SW at first, becoming more confined to NW/W parts by Sunday with the SE becoming much warmer and drier.

Into next week - quite probably NW-SE divide, the further north and west you go the cloudier and wetter, further south and east warmer and drier. Winds from between NW-SW so becoming much more humid than the past 2 weeks, which has seen very dry air over the country.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All, Does your Garden need a water??? Well it might need a good wartering  as the outlook looks dry away from this weekend...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Contrary to the post above, the 18z looks *in the main* quite cool and wet. That is apart from a warm blip early next week

Low to mid 20's possible for a day or so