Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Singularity]

 

Still I find myself pondering over the Scandi High potential later next week. Currently though it appears the common theme of recent mid-late spring periods may be modified by the anomalously high heights across the Arctic; the block is able to be situated at a higher latitude, with the UK more at risk of lows making inroads, most likely as secondary features associated with troughs disrupting against the blocking high. As usual GFS is more than happy to go with this sort of thing in its lower-res output following a less clear-cut progression before then.

In the ECM 12z the UK does in fact perform an impressive dodging act all the way out to day 10 when it comes to the core of those LP systems, but a fair bit of peripheral showery conditions do occur Thu-Sat, perhaps led by an initial frontal boundary pushing north during Thursday. We might actually snatch a reasonable (but not entirely dry) weekend for many areas, but this is currently too far out to think about seriously.

[ANYWEATHER]

On ‎04‎/‎05‎/‎2017 at 08:03, Optimus Prime said:

Looking at the charts the least likely outcome to be honest. Not even a few of your psychedelic picture ramping's can hype that one up. 

Evening! I really find your comment insulting as I just made a comment to what the model output shows and not what I think! Guess  what....your contribution to the model output thread should have been removed, because your comment added tiddly pip to the model output Anyway, General outlook to next week still remains the same , the  dry theme continuing , and still chilly under cloud cover , frost under clear skies , winds easing. and Something to cheer convective fans with potential thunderstorms... But Beautiful in the sunshine   No raging wind and rain from the Atlantic just Yet . Now can we have a summary from the model output from you.  .instead of sarcasm ..Thankyou!

[bluearmy]

Good job it's may. Would have been a meltdown on here  to see a frigid nor'easter turned into a tepid sou'wester within a couple of days! 

[snowray]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Good job it's may. Would have been a meltdown on here  to see a frigid nor'easter turned into a tepid sou'wester within a couple of days! 

Yes your quite right there. 

18z looking a lot better, we have light at the end of the tunnel for some milder settled weather, HP moving up from the south and dare I say the chance of some very warm temps , after some much appreciated rainfall. Very much outside of the reliable though of course but you never know.

[Matthew.]

With the trough stalling out west an inevitable plume awaits on the ECM

[bluearmy]

Are we able to draw the curtains on yet another nw euro trough that won't verify?? Becoming too repetitive to be ignored. 

[Summer Sun]

Hopefully, ECM is correct with the low tracking to the NW and allowing warmer air in

It's certainly not alone with this idea (GFS below)

[Summer Sun]

Some Central, southern and eastern parts barely get 10mm of rain over the next 10 days

[Summer Sun]

A few more days of this east-west split but the trend now is to warmer conditions for the 2nd half of next week with some rain and the warmer air we're also likely to see some thunderstorms developing

Edited May 6, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Matthew.]

Yes the stalling trough seems to be the theme for the second half of next week. Just wonder where we go from there. Early indications from the ECM is that the trough makes a Sw-Ne line towards northern Scotland. 

[Summer Sun]

Whilst we do see some rain it's not enough to ease the current shortage

[snowray]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Whilst we do see some rain it's not enough to ease the current shortage

Looked like a right old drenching was on its way to us for later next week up until yesterdays runs.

It seems to me that rainfall is being downgraded by the models this spring just as much as snow is usually downgraded in winter.

[knocker]

A quick look at last night's EPS anomaly before diving into the gfs.

The pattern change is complete with the high pressure banished west and low pressure over the Arctic and associated troughs eastern seaboard, mid Atlantic and eastern Europe, An indication that the Eastern Atlantic will feature a large area of pretty static low pressure for a time but importantly some renewed ridging just to the east of the UK.

And so to the gfs. The beginning of the week sees the retrogression of the high pressure and the beginning of the pattern change which results in a slackening of the eastery flow over the UK to very light winds and a continuation of the dry quite pleasant weather with temps generally varying around the average. But the westward movement of the HP opens the door for troughs to travel south east around N. Greenland and by 12z Wednesday we have a trough just SW of Iceland about to phase with the low pressure to the south west and becoming a large trough area to the west.

Thus the pattern is set for a while with a large low pressure area to the west, which slowly drifts around, with shallow lows being spawned in the circulation and tracking north east over the UK. This would probably mean some outbreaks of showery rain, not amounting to much with temps still around average. The detail of this elusive at this stage.

This general set up continues over the weekend with a general south westerly flow but by the beginning of next week the high pressure is nudging north and temps could well pick up above average and a return to drier and more settled weather, albeit more like to favour the south

All in all not too bad with the possible unsettled period at the end of the week stretching into the weekend.

Edited May 7, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

I went to edit and add this but it seems the ability to edit applies only in a very short window these days.

I should add that this morning's GEFS anomalies are not in agreement with the EPS and are not making much of any ridging so the evolution 6-10 is a long way from a done deal

[knocker]

The ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs for a time but predictable puts more emphasis on the high pressure towards the end of the run. As previously mentioned this still to be resolved.

[Summer Sun]

This mornings ECM shows high pressure rebuilding quite quickly after a blip later in the week

[Summer Sun]

A one-day event at the moment but the 1st signs of summer like heat building up from Europe

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sort of chart you'd expect near the UK, in Dec to Feb

[knocker]

This evening's gfs det run is still not liking the idea of height rises adjacent to the UK in the ten day window. In fact at the beginning of next weekend it has a new upper trough tracking east from the central United states which becomes absorbed in the main Atlantic trough.This spawns a surface depression which tracks quickly NE to affect the UK over the weekend with some quite strong winds and certainly some rain. Albeit the temps quite respectable

The GEFS anomaly is pretty much in agreement with the bare bones of this.

 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

A one-day event at the moment but the 1st signs of summer like heat building up from Europe

and as if by magic whoomph its gone in the 12z

[Eugene]

Not much sign of anything that much above average temp wise on GFS 12Z, looks like the fine pleasant weather is slowly going to be eroded in the upcoming week with damp southwesterly weather moving in next weekend, let's hope the past weeks glorious cool easterly can make a return after a brief blip next weekend.

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Eugene said:

Not much sign of anything that much above average temp wise on GFS 12Z, looks like the fine pleasant weather is slowly going to be eroded in the upcoming week with damp southwesterly weather moving in next weekend, let's hope the past weeks glorious cool easterly can make a return after a brief blip next weekend.

 

No thanks we've had enough cloudy dross from that in the past week or so let's hope it doesn't return in a long time roll on the warmer air bringing some thunderstorms

[Matthew.]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

No thanks we've had enough cloudy dross from that in the past week or so let's hope it doesn't return in a long time roll on the warmer air bringing some thunderstorms

I suppose location is a big decider for that easterly

[Summer Sun]

Nice looking ECM so far with the low pulling further west allowing high pressure to move closer by putting us in a warmer flow of air

Edited May 7, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Matthew.]

The ECM is teasing us again

 A very summery south-easterly to end the run

Edited May 7, 2017 by Summer 1976