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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

I've done the detail elsewhere but the clear trend is to more unsettled and LP dominated into next week.

The question of the position and orientation is yet to be clear.

The ECM 00Z looks out on its own in all honesty.

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17 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Lovely looking ukmo posted above.Certainly a very dry 5 to 7 days coming up and for the first part of it west is best i would imagine, hoping the cold blast next week gets shunted east as is often the case..

Yes though the latest GFS has Low pressure starting to take over next week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at UKMO 12z we would cut off the cooler winds early next week if correct

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.6e35a22014594f158329a61d4a5c9ff3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

reminds me of last 2 summers! timing of Tue or Wed plume, gone on next run, but never know, plumes have a habit of arriving midweek

h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Ukmo is interesting this evening  - only goes to 144 but im suspicious it would go onto show what the ecm0z depicted..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 hours ago, Andover said:

Yes though the latest GFS has Low pressure starting to take over next week. 

Ukmo doesnt :-)

Alas ecm sides with gfs at 144...

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
46 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo is interesting this evening  - only goes to 144 but im suspicious it would go onto show what the ecm0z depicted..

UKMO t168 will be even more interesting it's certainly gone a different way this evening to the rest

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Whilst ECM does turn a bit more unsettled longer term the colder air thankfully stays north of Scotland

ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.244e26ca4ac821917633f9224ea2b1fb.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.c5db93881ca441a91a41cb48dc307444.pngECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.cef5d53dc722808d8d5f8aa60537962e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening! A Quick one from me, the next 10 days show little rain and below average temps with on going frost issues...... Perhaps some  convection from the charts leading to some isolated thunderstorms.:cold:

tonni.png

tonnix.png

thunder.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM continues to back away from anything overly cold in the longer term with low-pressure parking it's self to the west we draw up some milder air along with some rain at times though I doubt it will ease the current shortage much

ECMOPEU00_120_2.thumb.png.60082a548cb916d15cbc52e47dcb0b6e.pngECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.be444c2b32c473fad5e32b536c5c4d7a.pngECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.7f58d617bde255a61ad8a5d987902773.png

ECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.bf84b9f912c5ceddbe1d4ffab57a4029.pngECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.e96640f3ce93ddc26c63e4257595b40a.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The overnight runs trending back towards the upper trough being dragged further west again next week. Whilst the ens seem happy that most of the uk will be under the cooler part of the trough, it's still not convincing when you view the spread and the ops. The interaction of the Azores low and the fellow dropping in from the north is yet to be decided. Will we possibly retain some residual upper ridging ?? odds remain on the gfs solution but the less cold outcome continues to gather pace. 

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
11 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! A Quick one from me, the next 10 days show little rain and below average temps with on going frost issues...... Perhaps some  convection from the charts leading to some isolated thunderstorms.:cold:

Looking at the charts the least likely outcome to be honest. Not even a few of your psychedelic picture ramping's can hype that one up. 

Edited by Optimus Prime
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

On the anomaly charts they do seem to be trending to changing the long wave pattern at last. Still too early to be sure but at last the blocking somewhere nw-ne of the uk with a 500 mb flow from north of west round through north to north of east 'could' be leaving us, at least for a while?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Some early heat for parts of Europe? even by Europe's standards that's hot for what would be mid-month

Recm2402.thumb.gif.64b50c020cafc5f90f979c2eeb2d8efe.gif

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
39 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Some early heat for parts of Europe? even by Europe's standards that's hot for what would be mid-month

Recm2402.thumb.gif.64b50c020cafc5f90f979c2eeb2d8efe.gif

Yeah I think that's the sort of pattern we are headed towards. Could well be an excellent start to an early summer this year. Probably won't stay that way mind. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well it looks better to me this morning. If it's going to be a bit unsettled, at least have it unsettled and milder rather than this cold tripe we've had to put up with. Hoping that trough stays out west a la ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland

Thanks Stodge,May is often a time for cool North East winds in my area so it is not unusual,I would prefer the first option that you mention but as ever it is wait and see developments.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM again going for milder/warmer air to move over the UK during next week as low pressure develops out west

ECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.1e7ed77be87da38df40da50a0c924772.pngECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.7bf5978c51721ccdadc586ac4cbaa527.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.a939031cb357f13f90a508f7e75800d9.png

ECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.d13c0eee6ed57eb79c478c5313ff34cc.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.820522afa4155d0633f0b41275a9e5fd.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Models seem to be gradually coming together on a solution that sees the main focus of LP out west of the UK by Thu-Fri next week, placing us in a 'peripheral' situation, some might call it 'gently unsettled'; sunshine and showers to put it in classic terms.

With warmer air and more southerly-orientated winds comes the risk of a big moisture import but hopefully any such thing can be realised as  thunderstorms more than a big messy heavy rain event.

If trends continue we could find ourselves far enough from the low for some fine interludes to be included. I am wondering, though, whether a Scandi High might steal the opportunity to establish itself; in these years of low Arctic sea ice this has been a strong tendency in the warmer months (less so in the cold months, typical as that is!). 

Getting ahead of myself now though. Before all that, quite feasible most places in England will see little in the way of rain until next Thursday or Friday. Quite an achievement if that occurs, given all the HLB at play.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Little change from ECM overnight low pressure out west bringing some rain at times and milder/warmer air

ECMOPEU00_144_2.thumb.png.e1cc689ab87c51ae78d2f51c3a85ccf8.pngECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.94dfdd36f375eb11d656afa9d4d5a6af.pngECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.abc9eea435ab55da9ffb6f6d93f51c5a.png

ECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.71455395c73f3ba9e49b76eb5bc13ae8.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.46648579689184716243885140fae8ea.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Agreement now for a milder air flow to develop during next week especially so for the south

GFSOPUK12_147_2.thumb.png.80a968f92dda39a8cc198bdf1154d2c9.pngGFSOPUK12_147_17.thumb.png.3b1b997b26bb0f2acfcaeac4e9c55ecd.png

GFSOPUK12_174_2.thumb.png.98419edd25afa40cc974df43e3e207ed.pngGFSOPUK12_174_17.thumb.png.6d100b256526bc189aeb0b6a4f5f610a.png

UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.1d05b2f1fa45a11166b698c737d8d2fe.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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