Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[049balt]

2 hours ago, Summer 1976 said:

The easterly wind looks lighter on UKMO this morning with the Hp a little closer to the country from Wednesday.

BBC talk about "Omega Block" last night and getting warmer as a result, 

[Bobd29]

A proper Omega Block would bring a lot of prolonged warm sunny weather if in the right place. They can be very hard to shift a la 1976, and as we are already in a very dry period in some areas it could get to be a problem. Be nice to have a summery couple of months with increasing warmth but be careful what you wish for imo.

[Eugene]

Temps look below average this coming week with some cool uppers being pulled down from the ENE, could feel very raw esp more northern/eastern areas by thursday in a fresh ENE'ly breeze, very disappointing runs for those looking for humid southeasterlies, lets not forget temps and dewpoints were at one point forecasted by the charts to be much higher. 

[knocker]

In a nutshell with the ecm

 

[Scorcher]

29 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Temps look below average this coming week with some cool uppers being pulled down from the ENE, could feel very raw esp more northern/eastern areas by thursday in a fresh ENE'ly breeze, very disappointing runs for those looking for humid southeasterlies, lets not forget temps and dewpoints were at one point forecasted by the charts to be much higher. 

I disagree- in areas sheltered from the easterly the temperatures will be at least average for early May- the BBC are still going for 14-16C for the Manchester area this week- it's only the very start of May remember.

It also could be rather sunny for many with the stronger breeze helping to keep the skies clear.

Interesting that you choose to focus on the people who will be 'disappointed' by the outlook- I imagine you yourself will be very happy given your disdain for high dew points.

 

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, 049balt said:

BBC talk about "Omega Block" last night and getting warmer as a result, 

That would be nice but can't see it at the moment as by Friday the high moves NW instead of SE.

[weatherguru14]

Even the BBC have down graded their  temperature  prediction for the next few days."maybe low 20s" was mentioned in a forecast last night.. No idea what model that are viewing. Perhaps the one called fantasy.

[knocker]

According to this morning's ext EPS by the 11th May the high pressure in the Greenland/Icelane area has been reduced to weak ridge orientated NE from NE Canada with trough mid Atlantic and another to the east with ridging over the UK. Thus a SW upper flow with temps a little above average. Much the same until the end of the period.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, Eugene said:

Temps look below average this coming week with some cool uppers being pulled down from the ENE, could feel very raw esp more northern/eastern areas by thursday in a fresh ENE'ly breeze, very disappointing runs for those looking for humid southeasterlies, lets not forget temps and dewpoints were at one point forecasted by the charts to be much higher. 

I know one thing, Monday will be a washout for the north Midlands

[damianslaw]

Not much to talk about at the moment, a very quiet atlantic, with high pressure set to continue to rule the roost, but this time around it will be courtesy of significant northern blocking something we have been spared in the main since November last year. Indeed ECM and GFS are very bullish with the signal of a classic retrogressing high pressure pattern, with an easterly feed, becoming a northeasterly, and the possibility we main see a trough slice its way down its eastern flank in time, hence we could end up with a chilly northerly, or instead something of a negative west based NAO pattern with low heights invading from the SW, pulling in a more continental southerly feed.

The main feature is the continuation of the very dry conditions we have seen for many weeks now. I've said before how very wet periods can often be followed by very dry conditions, the exceptional rains of Oct 15 - Jan 16 seem a long distant memory.

May is my favourite month generally, it can be the best month weatherwise here in the NW, the ever increasing daylight and sun strength combined with rapid plant / vegetation growth always cancels out a damp mood.

[SMU]

UKMO 144

possibly the best chart you could have...

if only it was winter!

[Sardonixs]

Looks like the Met have dropped the above average temperatures theme that has been mentioned further up the thread in their latest update - now going for average to slightly below.  

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39756642?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

 

Edited April 29, 2017 by Sardonixs

[Frosty.]

54 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144

possibly the best chart you could have...

if only it was winter!

If it was winter I'm sure something would scupper it knowing our luck..and charge you're phone Steve it's only on 29 percent.

[Matthew.]

I fear the worst from the ECM Retrogression with no boundary

[Frosty.]

If you like cool and cloudy north sea filth, the Ecm 12z will take you to nirvana..but for the rest of us it looks miserable and chilly..even colder towards the end. The far west / northwest should do well for sunshine though.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

If you like cool and cloudy north sea filth, the Ecm 12z will take you to nirvana..but for the rest of us it looks miserable and chilly..even colder towards the end. The far west / northwest should do well for sunshine though.

Amazingly I could name a few who would enjoy what you describe...

[Captain Shortwave]

      

ECM days 4,6 and 8

If you are a weather fan this is about as bad as you can get, a lot of cloud, temperatures near or slightly below normal with rainfall limited to the far south east if at all. Just grey nothingness with cloud piling in from the north east. We could have had high pressure to our north east with warm, sunny weather, we could have pushed this pattern further with a more unstable north to north easterly or a trough over the UK. Instead we get a half way house with high pressure retrogressing but holding enough of a presence to kill off any meaningful convection. 

Overall a dire set up for many, saying that western areas could do fairly well with sunshine and warm temperatures. Eastern areas, well it is going to be one of those periods of weather we often get in the spring. Hopefully we will see something more interesting develop in the coming runs, be it cold/unsettled or warm.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Amazingly I could name a few who would enjoy what you describe...

your location not looking too bad, W Scotland favoured for warm sun though, as I predicted in May CET around 20th April

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144

possibly the best chart you could have...

if only it was winter!

Indeed a cross profile flow there, a long drawn north easterly deep from within the arctic - superb winter synoptic for anyone who likes deep prolonged cold, alas such synoptics often have a far greater chance of coming off around now than in winter, as the atlantic is traditionally in its annual slumber, and northerlies and easterlies reach their yearly maxim, still quite impressive to see how the default northern hemispheric pattern looks like turning on its head - synoptic reminiscent of March 2013.

[knocker]

H/t Michael Ventrice

Big flip potentially in the NAO state when comparing -NAO in 6-10d to +NAO in 11-15d.

[knocker]

Once the low pressure (with some pretty poor weather for England and Wales today and tomorrow) has moved off south east the pattern change gets under way. By midday Wednesday this results in the main Atlantic trough being away to the west, the surface high centred west of Norway and the low to the south east still just affecting south east England.

Thus the easterly flow that has been indicated for days gets underway, bringing with it an east/west split temperature wise with obviously the cooler temps along the east coast although generally varying around the norm. But this is relatively short lived as the, also well sign posted, retrogression of  the high cell gets underway and the trough to the west thus becomes very negatively tilted (one could say horizontal eventually). So that by midnight Saturday the north of the UK is still just about in the light high pressure circulation and the south creeping into the circulation of the troughs that have encroached from the west.

From here on the UK becomes the battle ground between the HP to the north west, and the troughs to the south west and east (as indicated by the anomalies) and this by no means sorted at the moment. The gfs this morning has the HP just about hanging in there but with the troughs paying close attention the result is light winds varying from northerly to south easterly but generally remaining dry albeit temps taking a turn for the worst. Not to get too wrapped up with the temps as this evolution is so knife edgy future changes are inevitable

This morning's 6-11 GEFS covers it pretty well

Edited April 30, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Welcome to may! Appalling charts for people wanting a bit of warmth, extensive northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet, so absent during winter.

Ajoke of a climate ..

 

 

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Welcome to may! Appalling charts for people wanting a bit of warmth, extensive northern blocking and a southerly tracking jet, so absent during winter.

Ajoke of a climate ..

 

 

Aye it's awful, cool Easterly winds off a cold North sea and extensive cloud piling in from the east..vile..and someone on here said roll on the easterly the other day!

[knocker]

The ecm also has the UK as the battleground with the trough to the east just shading it on points by the end of the period.

[Frosty.]

Well, what a disappointing outlook compared to what the models were showing recently..it's all gone pete tong.