Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

I have high hopes for May, it looks like it could be a largely summery month with plenty of warm / very warm anticyclonic weather. The GEFS 6z mean looks very encouraging and the latest update from Exeter is fantastic..fingers crossed.

Edited April 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[stodge]

The Exeter update read well if you want warmth but it's mentioning it did also allude to more unsettled conditions in southern and south-western parts which you'd expect from an E'ly flow with HP to the north and LP to the south.

The 06Z OP isn't a million miles away from the 00Z OP with the HP starting over continental Europe before north then North west ending up behind absorbed in a new strong Greenland HP and more than a hint of a return to colder N'ly conditions into the middle of the month.

[Summer Sun]

I'd settled for this in early May

[knocker]

This evening's GFS has the UK on Thursday and Friday in the northerly circulation of the high cell which is out to the west until it begins to slide south east late Thursday. Thus still the likelihood of wintry showers in exposed area as temps remain below average. But after that the the evolution is a thing of beauty.

As mentioned the high pressure continues to slip away and a quite intense upper trough arrives from the north west and phases in with our old friend the low pressure area to the south west so that by 12z Saturday we have this quite complex set up to the west.

As can be seen the fronts are associated with the depression 989mb but this low tracks quickly NNW and another is spawned by the main trough which runs into N. Ireland by 06z Sunday with the fronts down across Cornwall. This depression deepens and also moves quickly north west as the fronts continue east bringing a fairly wet and windy Sunday to most.

Edited April 24, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I'd settled for this in early May

Signs are very promising, could be the best may for years. :- )

[I remember Atlantic 252]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Signs are very promising, could be the best may for years. :- )

thing is though, could be setting us up for a washout Monday, as the warm air arrives, no doubt we'll be unlucky and it'll be timed for the day, not the night

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

thing is though, could be setting us up for a washout Monday, as the warm air arrives, no doubt we'll be unlucky and it'll be timed for the day, not the night

 

But that's to be expected it's a bank holiday

[Summer Sun]

One GFS run sends the 850's soaring to +17 with a few others between +10 and +15

[Frosty.]

45 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

thing is though, could be setting us up for a washout Monday, as the warm air arrives, no doubt we'll be unlucky and it'll be timed for the day, not the night

I will happily sacrifice another damp squib bank holiday if may turns out anything like is being hinted at.

[Frosty.]

Wow 564 dam thicknesses by the end of the Ecm 12z..late in the run the charts look gorgeous and very summer like..temps would be soaring into the high 70's to low 80's F.

Edited April 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

What a stunning end it is to ECM

BANK!

[knocker]

Predictable the ecm doesn't agree with the detail for next weekend with gfs. Put simply at 12z Saturday it has a small low and associated fronts about 150 miles west of Ireland  Moving on 24 hours the situation becomes quite complex with a large, negatively tilted upper trough dominating the eastern Atlantic Surface lows are runing around within the circulation of this and the aforementioned fronts haven't actually progressed very far and the rain is only just reaching Cornwall and becomes rather diffuse as it travel further east through Sunday. But a further disturbance spawned by the main trough and whips in quickly on Monday. I'm sure this quite intricate timing will be subject to some modification but at the moment the latter part of weekend is looking a bit damp

Edited April 24, 2017 by knocker

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow 564 dam thicknesses by the end of the Ecm 12z..late in the run the charts look gorgeous and very summer like..temps would be soaring into the high 70's to low 80's F.

It's looking fantastic - yes please!

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's looking fantastic - yes please!

It sure is Pete and most importantly its also what the met office are currently predicting.

Edited April 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello All...So from biting cold to summer warmth with-in the space of ten days...in between a blip of unsettled weather. Both ecm and gfs hint at this at summer warmth at day ten. But its a long way off but nothing unusual for model output for this time of year But the dry outlook goes on and on.....

[mb018538]

Some great looking output from the models, ensembles and meto updates! Get this darned cool spell over with and bring me that heat next week! General trends look good though, detail will of course vary depending on positions of high etc 

[ANYWEATHER]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Some great looking output from the models, ensembles and meto updates! Get this darned cool spell over with and bring me that heat next week! General trends look good though, detail will of course vary depending on positions of high etc 

Have you been outside ? What is this cool thingy? It feels freezing outside

[Summer Sun]

This trend to warmer temps next week that the models are showing I'm pleased to say looks correct

[Winter Cold]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This trend to warmer temps next week that the models are showing I'm pleased to say looks correct

Yes SS, a big turnaround looks to be coming. Youve got to love our little island havent you, from blue to red in just over a week!

[Matthew.]

A little late and just viewed the ECM. Incredible charts. Way ahead at +216 so let's see if there's any sign of the same tomorrow. A real surge of very warm air from the south, reminded me of the great months from the past.

[Captain Shortwave]

We still look on course for a real change in conditions in the week 2 range. 

ECM ens

      

A rapid change develops at the end of the this week as heights in the Atlantic which have persisted for a good week or so looks set to be quickly replaced by a deep and slow moving trough which allows pressure to build over Europe with warm conditions developing widely across mainland Europe and the UK. Temperatures will be slow to recover at first, towards normal by this weekend but trending above or well above towards the day 10 period and that is a strong signal from the models and ensembles. The GFS has a similar idea with a flow between the south and east developing next week.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Have you been outside ? What is this cool thingy? It feels freezing outside

Agree with that, Enough is enough now, sick of gloves and jackets, about time for some warmth, even Dec to Feb style will do

[Frosty.]

 Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean  indicates a marked change to summer like conditions during early May.

[knocker]

For the rest of this week the gfs has the high pressure slowly edging east , thus the current, cold, inclement northerly  which is bringing wintry showers to many, will slowly abate and temperatures start to rise. The shallow low tracking down the North Sea has been a slight hindrance to this but by 12z Friday the UK is firmly in the middle of the transition and awaiting the complexities arriving from the west.

Within the next 24 hours a large negatively tilted upper trough is dominating the eastern Atlantic having  tracked east from the Canadian vortex lobe and is going to control affairs over the weekend. Thus by 12z on Saturday we find the main surface low SE of Greenland with shallow lows lying along the front which is orientated N/S west of Ireland and most of the UK under the influence of a light southerly and temps back to average

From here the situation is quite interesting as it develops. The fairly shallow low to the west intensifies and gets far more organized and by 123z Sunday is 980mb over south west Ireland with the associated fronts swinging across south west England bringing with them some rain. From here the low begins to fill and track into northern England which initiates an unsettled showery day for most of the UK with temps around average. And a mere glance at that last chart illustrates the influence the troughs are having tracking E/SE from the Canadian factory into the Atlantic. By midweek the rapid amplification and the surge of the high pressure gets underway but no point in attempting any detail at the moment.

Edited April 25, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm also has the low over SW Ireland by 12z Sunday with fragmented rain into the south west. But it has it filling and disappearing more or less in situ with the weakening rain band crossing the UK on Monday so at this stage I feel it is a tad precarious to attempt more detail although the temps will be back to normal.

Edited April 25, 2017 by knocker