Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


Recommended Posts

Looking like GFS 12Z is too progressive regarding atlantic systems making much inroads into england next weekend, UKMO 12Z/GEM 12Z go for a drier scenario with a strong scandy high blocking any atlantic intrusion leading to a very chilly easterly setting up early May on GEM 12Z, as it's almost May you have to favour a blocking scenario when westerlies are traditionally at their weakest.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
5 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

Just to show how interesting this Spring has been, the models if correct could switch us from late winter to early summer potentially.

EDM1-144.GIF?23-12   EDM1-192.GIF?23-12   EDM1-240.GIF?23-12

 

 

An easterly in July or August would be great. May or June might be a bad thing for those after the sun.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Here comes the cold blast on the Ecm 12z, safe to say tues / wed will be a lot colder than monday in the south with sunshine / wintry showers.. there is a chance of temporary lying snow, especially on hills and tomorrow could be very wintry across parts of scotland with heavy snow. Frosty nights to come too..an echo of winter during the next 2 / 3 days from the arctic.

24_mslp850uk.png

48_mslp850uk.png

48_thickuk.png

48_mslp500.png

72_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Evening All ! :) The Potent spell of cold weather is on the way , the devil will be in the detail, but some places will receive there coldest temps on record for this time of year.:cold::cold::cold: After this the Atlantic tries to get in , but the Scandi high starts to build in....:sorry:

potent.png

freezing.gif

post-5986-0-96303900-1439491213.gif

potentx.png

potentxx.png

potentxxx.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Sorry for not posting for a while but been watching the  expected cool April play out. the modelling has done a pretty decent job. We finally see strong signals that the change of month will signal a change in temps as a combination of Atlantic trough and building sceuro upper ridge brings a s or se flow across the uk.  I would be taking note of the repeated establishment of Azores lower heights - could be an interesting summer upcoming if this becomes a repeating theme. Many times over the past month or so, a predicted fi upper trough for nw Europe ends up heading to our sw with heights remaining fairly high across nw Europe. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
7 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening All ! :) The Potent spell of cold weather is on the way , the devil will be in the detail, but some places will receive there coldest temps on record for this time of year.:cold::cold::cold: After this the Atlantic tries to get in , but the Scandi high starts to build in....:sorry:

potent.png

freezing.gif

post-5986-0-96303900-1439491213.gif

potentx.png

potentxx.png

potentxxx.png

Indeed. Cold air now in Shetland. We have already received 6 cm of lying snow today at sea level. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Following on from earlier posts all the anomalies are on board tonight, albeit with not complete agreement on the analysis, with the pattern change that starts to evolve around day eight which involves the Atlantic trough sinking south and heights building adjacent and to the north east of the UK The EPS is a fair bit different to the GEF vis the trough and has it more defined and thus a more pronounced SWS upper drift with for a few days temps a fair bit above average. These differences will need to be resolved before any detail can be confidently predicted but things would appear to be looking good.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.9fabd6ab834fcabbee9854f6531984e4.png814day_03.thumb.gif.e9469bb84e2ad956c15e1e079aa59b02.gif

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
54 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Sorry for not posting for a while but been watching the  expected cool April play out. the modelling has done a pretty decent job. We finally see strong signals that the change of month will signal a change in temps as a combination of Atlantic trough and building sceuro upper ridge brings a s or se flow across the uk.  I would be taking note of the repeated establishment of Azores lower heights - could be an interesting summer upcoming if this becomes a repeating theme. Many times over the past month or so, a predicted fi upper trough for nw Europe ends up heading to our sw with heights remaining fairly high across nw Europe. 

I concur; there has been a general sense of this in recent months, and it just so happens there are a lot of long range models, for what theyre worth, which are going for extensive anomalous warmth across most of Europe including the UK across 2-4 of the next four months with a precip setup that hints at thundery episodes often crossing western Europe. Now that really would be interesting! :)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
27 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I concur; there has been a general sense of this in recent months, and it just so happens there are a lot of long range models, for what theyre worth, which are going for extensive anomalous warmth across most of Europe including the UK across 2-4 of the next four months with a precip setup that hints at thundery episodes often crossing western Europe. Now that really would be interesting! :)

I was just about to say...the last update of the GLOSEA model hinted at an Atlantic meets continent type summer...so yes I would say at this point it looks possible we may see a warm, thundery summer. 

Then again, it's entirely plausible (as we see and have seen many times) that the seasonal models are just taking a nearer time signal and extrapolating that into a full seasonal average. In fact, with that scenario we run the risk of going very very wet eventually.

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I was just about to say...the last update of the GLOSEA model hinted at an Atlantic meets continent type summer...so yes I would say at this point it looks possible we may see a warm, thundery summer. 

Then again, it's entirely plausible (as we see and have seen many times) that the seasonal models are just taking a nearer time signal and extrapolating that into a full seasonal average.

Could this also be seen as possibly a warm, wet summer?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

A lot of N blocking being shown on the extended modelling now

Can anyone remember when we last saw blocking as prevalent as this in May?

gfsnh-0-384.png?18

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
9 minutes ago, Eugene said:

 

First half of May 1996. :)

That was the year with a baking hot July IIRC..

Yes just checked..1996 had a very warm period in July from mid month-ish

Edited by CreweCold
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
5 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

Could this also be seen as possibly a warm, wet summer?

I think we all know from model predictions since last October, there's no trust left. What I do know is current outlooks look very similar to last year, with early short lasted  hot spell in mid March then white Easter, even though slightly different date.

Then for the East of of UK was cold till  July due to Iceland centric high pressure system bringing cool easterlies till summer. 

I posted a snow covered tulip last year at end of April and expect similar in next couple of days 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

This was April 29th last year. 

My tulips not quite as mature yet, as Its been colder this spring so far, and once again daffs decided too cold to flower but expecting similar tulip pics in next day or two, I'm Obvs biased, as bought house in sweet spot in north of England, so only have 4/5 months of when no chance of snow, so looking fwd to my house choice paying off again :) so a reminder to coldies there's only 4/5 months to wait for the next hunt :cold-emoji:

Hang in there through the rainy season

IMG_20160427_070521.thumb.jpg.0db045c46f8351e74aa6cb9423cbec4a.jpg

 

P61109-075632.jpg

Edited by geordiekev
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

That was the year with a baking hot July IIRC..

Yes just checked..1996 had a very warm period in July from mid month-ish

A very sunny decent June aswell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

On  cue,  hail stones and snow just started

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The gfs this morning hss the Azores briefly ridging at the end of the week which initiates a couple significant developments. A high pressure cell to the north east and the deconstruction of the trough to the east and a cut off upper low/  Meanwhile the Atlantic trough edges closer from the west with the surface fronts a little later than previously estimated.

gfs_z500a_natl_21.thumb.png.0b3ddfb349eab681984c8ecc02a0b14d.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_28.thumb.png.b8ed52b69a3d93b80a24a1bef24a0a4b.png

From this point we have the battle between the high pressure intensifying adjacent to the UK and points east and the energy surging east from upstream and it's quite messy.

gfs_z500a_natl_34.thumb.png.b445779df92d18f4b86369e13905628a.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_34.thumb.png.b903383c0c78bd3d0e096f80d33212cc.png

But eventually order is restored satisfactorily

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_38.thumb.png.3b7d2c63a68e0ae07b201f74ab9084b2.png

So in a nutshell after a couple of inclement days HP becomes more influential towards the end of the week bringing drier and more settled conditions with temps rising towards average. Then a brief ingress from the Atlantic on Sunday before the next pattern change.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

Knocker, whilst I appreciate the time and effort you put in during the Summer months,  can I respectfully request that You make your posts less thesaurussy, and more meteorlogical. All of this traversing zephyrs and over mention of deconstructing ridges or troughs and energy formations are so far from your previous and precious valued contributions. 

Ergo, with all due respect, can you revert to your previous all encompassing much simpler forecasts that the majority of the readership will appreciate that actually mention weather rather than ridges and troughs , thank you in advance. I've been on this forum for 10 years and learnt so much,  but to be honest I feel a bit thick reading your new style of posts. 

(deconstruction of a trough, cmon, what does that mean)

 

Edited by geordiekev
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Plenty of crazy blocking charts around,and no surprise to see the GWO forecast to plummet to very low values as the Northern hemisphere starts settling into its summer state.

 

The UKMO seems a bit keen,although it is the scandi high time of year.:)

gfsgwo_1.thumb.png.9db6d93d832eb54a298751cf0a66fa08.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.10d5fee36999e318f1dfa53d05dbf6d0.GIF

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I was just about to say...the last update of the GLOSEA model hinted at an Atlantic meets continent type summer...so yes I would say at this point it looks possible we may see a warm, thundery summer. 

Then again, it's entirely plausible (as we see and have seen many times) that the seasonal models are just taking a nearer time signal and extrapolating that into a full seasonal average. In fact, with that scenario we run the risk of going very very wet eventually.

I do have my concerns over some ingredients being quite similar to 2007. Hopefully the Indonesian rainfall pattern will behave more kindly for us this time.

ALL_emean_phase_full.gifAprilPhase8gt1500mb.gif MayPhase8gt1500mb.gif

In the mid-range, any suggestions from GFS/GEFS of the big blocking high retrogressing back to our NW needs to be viewed with much skepticism given it's wild MJO projections versus the other models' expectations of minimal activity.

The impacts may already be evident when comparing GFS and ECM at day 10;

12_240_mslp500arc.png?cb=2 240_mslp500_arc.png?cb=2 

ECM (right) has more in the way of LP to the S of Greenland which may serve to keep the blocking more to our E/NE.Even GFS with it's MJO influence takes until some 3-4 days llater to start taking the block west so it seems the odds are in favour of a large and at least quite persistent Scandi feature such as we often see at some point in the spring season.Driest in the north with some showers possible at times in the south, temps dependent on the exact circulation pattern with anything from rather cool (low-mid teens) to 'proper' warm (low-mid twenties) possible, either way generally warmest in the west.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds

looking at weather charts.. why do  people look at them. and pinpoint  extreme  weather  scenarios  like 2007?.. the charts are forever changing .I think its showing a drier than average  situation as we head into May.No one knows  what it will be like in May over all or for the summer that is.. So to make "guesses"  based on extremism is  silly..

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

My "fear" that a Greenland ridge could take hold still seems possible but - crucially for the UK - with low pressure in the North Atlantic rather than high pressure. The result is our cold snap not lasting particularly long

gfs-0-216.png  ECM1-216.GIF?24-12

However, when a Greenland ridge sits in place for a while, it's kind of a magnet for any heights to join it - and the GFS D16 has a slightly crazy example of what that might look like - a northerly and easterly at the same time! (would be even crazier at D17):

gfs-0-384.png  gfs-1-384.png

Very cold for mid-May. Still, with all the fails by models to get a ridge into Greenland in mind, I'd put odds on this lower than Corbyn winning the election.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

I've done my daily analysis over on the "In Depth" forum (shameless plug).

The first thing to say is there is a lot of uncertainty starting from T+96. GEM offers a very different evolution in to the weekend from GFS and ECM and these two diverge sharply early next week.

I do think some form of HLB is the form horse especially given the time of year and points NE rather than NW look more favoured for now (though retrogression isn't a complete outlier on the GEFS). The crucial points will be the location and the orientation of any HP cell - an ECM style solution will bring warmer weather than the GFS but there are plenty of other options on the table.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...