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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Wintry showers also pushing South on this evenings GFS.

uksnowrisk-1.thumb.png.6b8e8c150ddf3f3ce1035170ac563564.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Here we go with the ECM at D5, looking close to odds on now this Arctic blast.

Also GFS 12z ensembles showing full support for the cold spell, London and Manchester there.

ECM1-120.GIF

ECM0-120.GIF

graphe_ens3.gif

graphe_ens3-1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Yes, i was posting GFS charts for fun the other day but perhaps, just for once, we will get a straight northerly!! Shame its 3 months too late of course. Still, ECM T144 tonight is great to look at:

ECU1-144.GIF.thumb.png.9e8a4c29305dcf4b324687e1265305ae.pngECU0-144.GIF.thumb.png.b20a7a7a06007df62cb2aefe549e9bd3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
21 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

Yes, i was posting GFS charts for fun the other day but perhaps, just for once, we will get a straight northerly!! Shame its 3 months too late of course. Still, ECM T144 tonight is great to look at:

ECU1-144.GIF.thumb.png.9e8a4c29305dcf4b324687e1265305ae.pngECU0-144.GIF.thumb.png.b20a7a7a06007df62cb2aefe549e9bd3.png

Are you hoping for snow Chris? :D

As posted earlier by another member spot the difference between this year and last year.

Not far from me in parts of North York Moors above 200m saw a good few cm on the 26th April last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
3 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Are you hoping for snow Chris? :D

As posted earlier by another member spot the difference between this year and last year.

Not far from me in parts of North York Moors above 200m saw a good few cm on the 26th April last year.

haha, well I might see a flake or two up here if im lucky! Yes its uncanny how its matching the dates to last year exactly. Lets wait and see what happens :)

Very strong GFS 12z ensembles for South Yorkshire tonight, 850s around -6 and daytime temps around 7c for a few days :cold:

58f7b5c9a8f2e_t850SouthYorkshire.thumb.png.6be6cf24cc2da06086dd7888c355a7dd.png58f7b5cbd5f9d_t2mSouthYorkshire.thumb.png.ba3b92f626aea8b19db4b581166eda8e.png

Doesnt look to last too long and of course at this time of year a quick rebound in temps looks likely to more average values after the chilly spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

The cold air is starting to come down from north as soon as Monday AM, Ireland is about to become the coldest spot in Europe appart from Norway,for once, well appart from July and August of course,heh

nmm-16-114-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Just wanted to share some events from Central Europe from today,as there is 20cm of snow lying in parts of Bratislava at the moment,nearly being the coldest part of the whole Northern Hemisphere at the moment! That being preceded after coldest January in since 1987,all trees in bloom,hard frost expected on Friday,can kiss goodbye to all the fruit crop like Apples,Cherries etc. Truly exceptional, had to share,lol

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img-20170419-194949.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

A direct hit next week from the Artic for the UK, three months too late but at the same time could well give us news worthy weather . Models are adimant with this set up and it's still a long way off for detail. As I have mentioned in earlier posts ,perhaps some cold records been broken next week feel sorry for the farmers and growers ....to dry and too cold:cold::cold::cold:

h850t850eu-1.png

ecmt850.144.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

I suppose what helps is that typically, at this time of year, the Polar Vortex isn't as dominant as it can be during the middle of Winter. With those usual very low heights generally becoming less intense over Greenland/Canada, a more meridonal, wavy pattern can occur. The chances of a less powerful/flat Jet racing in towards us across the Atlantic is decreased, thus allowing High Pressure to amplify more easily to our West, forcing Lows to dive to our East unlocking the heavens to Arctic air from the North.

While I am looking forward to warmer weather thinking it would be game over now for any more snow chances, I would welcome this possible high-quality Northerly if it meant one last shot of wintry weather for the snow fans! Come on Spring, just one last bite of the snowy cherry before it's too late! :cold: 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

It looks like the peak of the 'cold' will be around the middle part of next week towards the bank holiday weekend and into May temperatures begin to recover though this is to be expected given the time of year

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.c4e84bbca716a46cb413121b7eedbd79.png

The beebs long range forecast last night said it probably won't feel too cold inland next week with the strong sunshine but along the north sea coast it will be colder where your exposed to the wind

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

It looks like the peak of the 'cold' will be around the middle part of next week towards the bank holiday weekend and into May temperatures begin to recover though this is to be expected given the time of year

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.c4e84bbca716a46cb413121b7eedbd79.png

The beebs long range forecast last night said it probably won't feel too cold inland next week with the strong sunshine but along the north sea coast it will be colder where your exposed to the wind

Next week the GFS is showing for Wednesday that temperatures will max at about 6/7 widely (Perhaps scraping 10 in the South East). With a steady northerly breeze it will be feel relatively cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
10 hours ago, 4wd said:

It reminds me of rescuing lambs from snowdrifts on May 1st 1979.
Only time ever heard cuckoo calling during a bizzard.

Rrea00119790430.gif

I remember playing cricket in North Dalton on the Wolds that week. Never been as cold in my life . Wore 3 jumpers and a scarf !

C

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
11 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

A direct hit next week from the Artic for the UK, three months too late but at the same time could well give us news worthy weather . Models are adimant with this set up and it's still a long way off for detail. As I have mentioned in earlier posts ,perhaps some cold records been broken next week feel sorry for the farmers and growers ....to dry and too cold:cold::cold::cold:

h850t850eu-1.png

ecmt850.144.png

Of course worth remembering that when we had these Synoptics in January there was something of a wishbone effect across the country. I'm expecting some decent convection out of these charts.

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

After processing a bit of realism;

A cloudy and mild-ish week and weekend coming up with a low risk of something much colder next week. Looking at the charts the result will probably be a chilly week next week and end to April with hill snow and some light frosts but generally nothing much of note for late April/early May. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

After processing a bit of realism;

A cloudy and mild-ish week and weekend coming up with a low risk of something much colder next week. Looking at the charts the result will probably be a chilly week next week and end to April with hill snow and some light frosts but generally nothing much of note for late April/early May. 

The final outcome may be as you say, but if this model is correct:

150-780.GIF?20-0

it will be extremely noteworthy for some southern areas. I cannot ever recall laying snow in these areas so close to May, and I'm not that young.

No matter what time of year, you can't really do much colder than this - and very strong agreement too.

ECM1-120.GIF?20-12  UW120-21.GIF?20-06  gfs-0-120.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Yes very strong agreement now, could get some snow almost anywhere I would think particularly where any organised PPN turns up evening and overnight through to mid morning.

 

Something to look forward to there later in the run as things could start to warm up again nicely in early May.:)

gfs-0-312.png

gfs-1-312.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

One thing for sure,there should be some good convection/cloudscapes.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Certainly looking chilly by night next week, and I am looking forward to finally seeing some decent convective weather which has been non existent thus far in April.

120-583UK.thumb.gif.cb79e952bd8b265b6d99e71c6a0a50d5.gif144-583UK.thumb.gif.7a43ff772a9ca15df5d3f366e322b0d2.gif168-583UK.thumb.gif.21e2f76d5ae028d2e2afe12f3fef0ab9.gif192-583UK.thumb.gif.80a94bb65e6e645e0f5864fb96a59e99.gif

incredible uppers given the time of year...

144-7UK.thumb.gif.4ebd90cab4b01c360682fac526eba946.gif

At least it will be interesting, bring it on.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Little change on the 06z becoming quite chilly for the time of year next week with a fair few showers around some of which will be wintry in the north and not just to high ground - then towards late April and early May things are shown to start and warm up

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.79fbb4f8e8b6f04046d0bc7b8b330b7a.png

00z

gefsens850London0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

GFS begins to cut off the northerly winds by Thursday so temps should recover a bit by this stage under any sunshine nights would stay cold though

GFSOPEU12_174_1.thumb.png.9138653d3d8a14f14871b99d721dc2ec.pngGFSOPEU12_174_2.thumb.png.2140799663793bb9509d40fc14c44e9d.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

GFS 12Z is much less cold on minima for the SW (still notable in most places though), which many such as the local apple orchards would be glad about.

However incidentally, I don't think we managed it all winter, but on the 12Z we have -10C 850's exiting the south coast 5 days from May...
h850t850eu.png

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