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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Evening All! Some really cold overnight temps this week , down to minus 5 or 6 in some places , not good for farmers or growers...and the outlook looks very similar . If the synoptics are right we could be receiving the coldest   air April temps on record!:cold:and the cold weather goes on  :cold: 

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freezing.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Yes its looking far from a settled and warm outlook! Things look like going downhill as we go towards the end of April and into the last month of meteorological Spring.

GFS 12z giving an ice day for northern Pennines and Scotland on the 26th April and heavy snow working south through the evening and overnight even into southern England!!!!

216-778UK.thumb.GIF.3c34929756b0cf532e7b452a7c0a5855.GIF216-779UK.thumb.GIF.f5ca879c84ed63507c892e9165551c88.GIF228-779UK.thumb.GIF.f314e37155851603b8a4459ade39bb62.GIF

 

All just for fun of course :p

Edited by Winter Cold
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
22 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

Yes its looking far from a settled and warm outlook! Things look like going downhill as we go towards the end of April and into the last month of meteorological Spring.

GFS 12z giving an ice day for northern Pennines and Scotland on the 26th April and heavy snow working south through the evening and overnight even into southern England!!!!

216-778UK.thumb.GIF.3c34929756b0cf532e7b452a7c0a5855.GIF216-779UK.thumb.GIF.f5ca879c84ed63507c892e9165551c88.GIF228-779UK.thumb.GIF.f314e37155851603b8a4459ade39bb62.GIF

 

All just for fun of course :p

Hard to see this coming off as shown on the 12z...these thicknesses are bordering on insane for almost May (by that point)

hgt500-1000.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, CreweCold said:

Hard to see this coming off as shown on the 12z...these thicknesses are bordering on insane for almost May (by that point)

hgt500-1000.png

Agree there, as those thicknesses support snow, even in my location

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models all showing a rather chilly outlook for the foreseeable especially for the north, with a classic retrogression pattern set up. The main theme is for cold nights with the threat of widespread frosts at times, indeed tonight will deliver a sharp frost for sheltered northern parts. The most notable feature of the coming week is for a continuation of the very dry conditions with little in the way of frontal rain activity , all quite normal for mid-late April which traditionally is often a dry period, and northerlies and easterlies oust out the atlantic.

Late April if the models verify as shown today will be decidedly chilly, with further sharp frosts and possible wintry precipitation, last year saw a cold end to April. Could be one of those months with a very marked difference in the CET values for the first and second half, a very mild first half, a distinctly below average second half, though southern parts will see near average maxima thanks to decent levels of sunshine.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

The ECM has backed away from the direct hit from the northerly it seems to me- will be interesting if we see further downgrades in the morning.

Just a glancing blow for the north and east shown on the ECM 12Z.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

I shall await the ECM,but the GFS is stubbornly sticking to its guns,and wants to bring a Taste of winter back to us

 

Mean while of to defrost the car.

C.S. 

Edited by cheshire snow
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM now coming on board, cold end of April looking more likely.:cold:

ECM1-168.GIF

ECM1-192.GIF

ECM1-216.GIF

ECM1-240.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

As cold as run as GFS is I've managed to find a few charts which show temps resembling late April and early May

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

At least at this time of year, the sunshine is quite strong now so any cold is watered down somewhat especially by day

Temps like below are quite a bit below average of course but given any sunshine and light winds it wouldn't be too bad

ukmaxtemp.png

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
2 hours ago, snowray said:

ECM now coming on board, cold end of April looking more likely

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170417_w2.png

We saw charts like the above regularly in winter and they failed to materialise ... now it's going into late April/early May, what's the betting on this being right.

MonthlyAnomalies_T2m_20170417_w4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

A review of the ECM monthlies leading up to the last week in April:

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017040300_67

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017040600_06

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017041000_50

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017041300_04

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017041700_33

This is a classic example of a long range ensemble mean slowly picking up signals as T0 nears, and shows well what we can expect from such a model. 

In the first two charts (D21-D28 / D17-D24), there's not much resemblance to the later charts but we do see a "something" in the mid-Atlantic. At that stage it isn't enough to make a forecast on (we've often seen these signals come to nothing) - instead, they should go in the "one to watch" column.

By D14-D21, we're starting to see a signal take shape - heights higher than normal to the west, lower than normal to the east. It is at this stage that I feel the ECM monthly can sometimes latch onto the correct solution, though it's still hit an miss even now. For instance, it will still make changes to the Greenland area in the next charts

The final charts (D10-D17 / D7-D14) see a progressively sharper signal, with good continuity for the UK from the D14-D21 chart. This is the range where we start to get a bit more serious about where things are going - we can't completely call it but we're getting close. The strong red to the left indicates there will probably be 500mb heights and therefore high pressure close to that position for much of the week - the strong blue to the right indicates where the low pressure more often than not. The result is a northerly oriented flow for much of the week = colder than normal.

For me, it's a bit like this

D21-D28: 25% confidence in the general pattern

D14-D21: 50% confidence

D7-D14: 70% confidence

Possible further changes? As usual, the area up to Greenland remains uncertain - take this morning's ECM/GFS 00Z ops at D10 for instance

ECM1-240.GIF?18-12  gfs-0-240.png

Heights threatening to push a bit further into Greenland on ECM, but a strong trough in the same place on GFS. The longevity of the cold spell will probably be down to which chart is closer to the mark. 

Incidentally, last night's ECM monthly sees the beginning of May panning out like this:

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017041700_50

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom_2017041700_67

The positive anomalies generally between Scotland and Iceland, then. I'd say a forecast for May based on that is even more difficult than usual, as 1000 mile corrections on the anomalies at D14-D28 is not unusual at all, meaning a UK high or a Greenland high is well within the margin for error - big temperature differences between either scenario! No signal for heights over Europe though.

In the "one to watch" category!

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II want to point out how poor the models have been performing recently. We were told a wash out Easter and cold with maybe frost last week. 

I had sunshine on every single day over Easter no frost and actually felt pretty pleasant. 

Was told to expect frost last night and this morning. Nothing. Not even that cold. 

I'm expecting frost tonight, but can't see that happening. 

I see the gfs 06z this morning drops the second northly or hardly makes a in roads at all and I expect to see the third one later on in the run wash away too. 

You can have cold uppers this time of year but doesn't mean to say the surface will be cold. With the sun getting stronger each day, any light winds and breaks in cloud and it soon warms up. (weekend prime example in the south) 

So much for a raging northly and snow showers showing last week.. 

Oh wait, that's been the case this whole winter. Roll on the mega hot humid charts and a dig at some proper storms. Then again, we said that last summer. Although my area did really well for storms last year. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Having a quick look through the GFS 06z the wide spread snow risk of the last couple of runs has dropped away on this run,however some more general sleet/snow is a possibility for more northern parts,this been a small risk as per latest Meto update.

C.S. 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
1 hour ago, Surrey said:

II want to point out how poor the models have been performing recently. We were told a wash out Easter and cold with maybe frost last week. 

I had sunshine on every single day over Easter no frost and actually felt pretty pleasant. 

Was told to expect frost last night and this morning. Nothing. Not even that cold. 

I'm expecting frost tonight, but can't see that happening. 

I see the gfs 06z this morning drops the second northly or hardly makes a in roads at all and I expect to see the third one later on in the run wash away too. 

You can have cold uppers this time of year but doesn't mean to say the surface will be cold. With the sun getting stronger each day, any light winds and breaks in cloud and it soon warms up. (weekend prime example in the south) 

So much for a raging northly and snow showers showing last week.. 

Oh wait, that's been the case this whole winter. Roll on the mega hot humid charts and a dig at some proper storms. Then again, we said that last summer. Although my area did really well for storms last year. 

 

Lucky you,East Sunday was close to a wash out, nor very warm/mild, last night we had a white frost.

I doubt even in the far south there will be much in the way of B-B-Q weather in the next couple of weeks. Pretty dry, which is not good news for the SE and other parts, but no real warmth. A glance through the Met Fax link gives the general idea from most models of what we can expect in the reasonably reliable time frame T+120. Take a look also at their suggested pattern 2 days or so beyond that. Fits quite well with the predicted upper air pattern on the anomaly charts, not totally consistent for sure but generally an upper flow from north of west for the next 2 weeks perhpas?

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

So, its November and we look forward to the first snow of the year. According to the GEFS 06z, my little part of the World is going to experience a snow storm on the 20th and 21st.

BUT HANG ON!

It's the middle of April!

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 The forecast for tonight looks to have  changed and the frost risk has gone now for Northwest England at least. Don't know why anyone is expecting the models to be near  the mark 10 days out when we can't even get tonight sorted. 

Edited by Chris.R
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GFS 12Z intensifies the greenland high mid next week compared to GFS 06Z, look for some wintry surprises popping up as we reach that timeframe, a collapsing high then allowing a cool and unsettled pattern to take hold looks likely, off topic today was lovely with crisp air and warm sunshine but not overbearing like mid summer, look out for frost tonight south midlands southwards. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well some fantastic charts today for coldies looking for a late taste of winter. :shok:

Anyone notice Mr Murr lurking?:search:

ECM1-192.GIF

ECM0-192.GIF

ECM1-216.GIF

ECM0-216.GIF

ECM1-240.GIF

ECM0-240.GIF

Edited by snowray
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9 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well some fantastic charts today for coldies looking for a late taste of winter. :shok:

Anyone notice Mr Murr lurking?:search:

ECM1-192.GIF

ECM0-192.GIF

ECM1-216.GIF

ECM0-216.GIF

ECM1-240.GIF

ECM0-240.GIF

Crazy charts. 2,3 or 4 months ago the servers would have been bust in here with charts like this. and as much as I love snow and cold its too late for me, don't much fancy waking up at 5 am to an inch of snow that's gone by 7am. its time to get some warmth and turn off the heating.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Crazy charts. 2,3 or 4 months ago the servers would have been bust in here with charts like this. and as much as I love snow and cold its too late for me, don't much fancy waking up at 5 am to an inch of snow that's gone by 7am. its time to get some warmth and turn off the heating.

Yes your quite right of course, and it all may well get watered down as usual, but we do have cross model agreement of something a lot colder next week. Ideally I would just like some rain for a change and then summer to start by mid May.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
20 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well some fantastic charts today for coldies looking for a late taste of winter. :shok:

Anyone notice Mr Murr lurking?:search:

ECM1-192.GIF

ECM0-192.GIF

ECM1-216.GIF

ECM0-216.GIF

ECM1-240.GIF

ECM0-240.GIF

 

As cold as those charts are it's very watered down compared to mid-winter even frosts are gone by 8am 9am at the very latest given the early sunrise now and it's strength

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12 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Crazy charts. 2,3 or 4 months ago the servers would have been bust in here with charts like this. and as much as I love snow and cold its too late for me, don't much fancy waking up at 5 am to an inch of snow that's gone by 7am. its time to get some warmth and turn off the heating.

Wow my heating hasn't come on for a long time, it's hardly been that cold has it with temps mainly in double figures by day and no harsh frosts for over a month.

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