Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean also shows High pressure retrogression and a scandi trough with an unsettled Arctic air mass becoming established across the uk from towards the end of next week..late April is looking unseasonably cold with night frosts and even some wintry ppn, especially on hills where there would be snow.

Edited April 14, 2017 by Frosty.

[Scorcher]

What a poor outlook, very disappointing after the spring so far. Of course some may find potential frost to be of interest but it could well be that we are just stuck with cool/cold, cloudy conditions in such a setup.

The lack of activity in this discussion today speaks volumes.

[snowray]

But the GFS might be right and the ECM wrong, so turning milder and settled with HP establishing itself over the Uk, it could still happen.

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, snowray said:

But the GFS might be right and the ECM wrong, so turning milder and settled with HP establishing itself over the Uk, it could still happen.

Yes snowray, the GEFS 12z mostly supports high pressure becoming centred over the uk by the end of next week with just a few going for the Ecm solution..it will be interesting to see which model is proved right. 

Edited April 14, 2017 by Frosty.

[Eugene]

53 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean also shows High pressure retrogression and a scandi trough with an unsettled Arctic air mass becoming established across the uk from towards the end of next week..late April is looking unseasonably cold with night frosts and even some wintry ppn, especially on hills where there would be snow.

 

Lets hope it's right frosty, don't think active weather fans could take more HP boredom after what has seemed like it has lasted an eternity, if ECM is wrong the model after many failed attempts recently has some serious issues.

[Frosty.]

Just now, Eugene said:

 

 if ECM is wrong the model after many failed attempts recently has some serious issues.

Agreed Eugene, tonight's Ecm is emphatically going for a cold unsettled late april..going to be interesting model viewing.

[knocker]

Interesting that the two of you think the ecm has some serious issues. I assume you both can justify this statement after having carried out some serious scientific analysis?

Edited April 14, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Interesting that the two of you think the ecm has serious issues. I assume you both can justify this statement after having carried out some serious scientific analysis?

All I'm saying is it will be interesting seeing which model is ultimately proved correct as the GFS-GEFS / ECM 12z op / mean end up completely different.. 

[MattTarrant]

18 minutes ago, Eugene said:

 

Lets hope it's right frosty, don't think active weather fans could take more HP boredom after what has seemed like it has lasted an eternity, if ECM is wrong the model after many failed attempts recently has some serious issues.

It was not frosty, yet this statement needs some backing!!

 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

It was not frosty, yet this statement needs some backing!!

 

Yes I was just agreeing with Eugene in  hoping the Ecm is right about a late April Arctic spell with full on retrogression.

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

All I'm saying is it will be interesting seeing which model is ultimately proved correct as the GFS-GEFS / ECM 12z op / mean end up completely different.. 

Actually that isn't what you said. You quoted Eugene

Quote

if ECM is wrong the model after many failed attempts recently has some serious issues.

And replied

Quote

Agreed Eugene

To say that a model has some serious issues if it fails predict 7-10 days away correctly requires some justification. Stuff like this is posted far too often IMO.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Actually that isn't what you said. You quoted Eugene

And replied

To say that a model has some serious issues if it fails predict 7-10 days away correctly requires some justification. Stuff like this is posted far too often IMO.

Well I'm just hoping for a cold unsettled wintry feeling late April as the Ecm shows.

[Frosty.]

Well, the Gfs 18z is staying anticyclonic as it showed earlier and warming up for a time too..nothing like the Ecm.

Edited April 14, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

Actually that isn't what you said. You quoted Eugene

And replied

To say that a model has some serious issues if it fails predict 7-10 days away correctly requires some justification. Stuff like this is posted far too often IMO.

All these northerlies have been wrong, again and again and again......so it don't matter which model is showing them we just end up with the kebab leftovers if we are lucky. Why do the models keep showing them then?

 

With all due respect you are the professional forecaster so instead of rubbishing genuine posters who are following run after run with interest and trying to learn, you could show less arrogance and post more constructive replies that guide rather than mock.

 

Anyway GFS sticks to its guns,

[knocker]

6 hours ago, snowray said:

 

With all due respect you are the professional forecaster so instead of rubbishing genuine posters who are following run after run with interest and trying to learn, you could show less arrogance and post more constructive replies that guide rather than mock.

 

With all due respect I am not a professional forecaster and never have been. I worked for the METO for 42 years but not in a forecasting role but as such I have had a keen interest in meteorology and science for many years and I also have a Bsc (Hons)

For your information I most certainly was not mocking the original poster or the follow up but trying to make a constructive criticism of a comment that was, and is, totally unjustified. The models and weather forecasting are scientific disciplines, and still very much in their infancy, and should be treated as such. Keeping that in mind there are far too many statements made in this thread, very much along the one in question, that are taken as fact without question and this is not only ridiculous but totally misleading to people who in, in your own words, are trying to learn. If you, and others, cannot see that a comment such as the ecm "has serious issues" requires some scientific justification then so be it.

As for arrogance and posting more constructive replies. Well one thing I have always attempted to do is post constructively, in a thread not renown for the latter. I will not waste my time from now on.

And finally on the subject of arrogance. I find it very arrogant to criticize a model which has a deserved reputation, given the limitations that still apply in this field, in this throw away fashion without feeling the need to at offer a soupcon of scientific justification. Time and again the northerly at day ten hasn't materialized does not suffice.Anyway I will leave you to it.

Edited April 15, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Again, the Gfs 00z is sticking to its guns this morning with a largely anticyclonic outlook and becoming warmer for a time too..looking decent with plenty of sunshine on offer but then gradually becoming more unsettled during low res.

Edited April 15, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z looks decent next week, becoming largely settled with high pressure taking control but then it turns colder and very unsettled from the north later with HP retrogression.

Edited April 15, 2017 by Frosty.

[stodge]

Morning all

I'll do a more detailed analysis later but a huge difference between GEM/ECM and GFS this morning. Both the former go foe retrogression and a strong N or Ne'ly flow to end next week while GFS keeps the weather quiet and anticyclonic.

ECM at T-240:

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

[Summer Sun]

Tomorrow looks quite a wet day for many but ARPEGE has other ideas

GFS

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z is singing from the same hymn sheet as the Ecm 00z with a spell of high pressure next week followed by a marked change to colder and very unsettled weather from the north later with full on HP retrogression..dream winter charts in late April.

Edited April 15, 2017 by Frosty.

[Gael_Force]

9 hours ago, snowray said:

All these northerlies have been wrong, again and again and again......so it don't matter which model is showing them we just end up with the kebab leftovers if we are lucky. Why do the models keep showing them then?

The models keep showing them because the algorithms in the models are reading the atmosphere as responding in that way. There is some conflict going on somewhere that is not behaving as the physics in the models dictates. Maybe the tropical signals are not being read properly or something in the upper atmosphere is not as it seems. IMO, you'll not learn anything here until the spanner in the works is identified and correctly fed into the program the model uses. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is still going for retrogression of the high and a scandi trough with an unseasonably cold and unsettled late April with arctic air and a risk of wintry ppn, especially on hills and night frosts.

Edited April 15, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z is largely anticyclonic with predominantly fine and dry weather and pleasant surface conditions in the many sunny spells but some nights would be cold where skies clear, just the briefest unsettled blip for a time in low res before the run ends on a high..once again, the Gfs is nothing like what the Ecm is still showing through late April.

Edited April 15, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows high-pressure building next week temps generally around or a bit below average but in any sunshine and light winds it will feel quite pleasant by day frosts could be the main concern for gardeners

Edited April 15, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z looks generally settled during the week ahead as high pressure builds in over the uk with variable amounts of cloud and sunny spells followed by cold frosty nights where skies clear. Daytime temps become more pleasant later in the week and nights not as cold.

Edited April 15, 2017 by Frosty.