Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well its looking a lot more unsettled over Easter with even some sleet and snow around on the 06z, feeling a lot colder in the North and East particularly.

gfs-0-108.png

gfs-1-108.png

gfs-2-78.png

gfs-2-108.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Some very cold uppers moving in from the north east of -7/-8c, along with dew points of well below 0c almost everywhere by next Tuesday morning. :cold:

120-7UK.GIF

120-101UK.GIF

Edited by snowray
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

@snowray

Temperature no great shakes either,looking at midday Monday England and Wales at the 7-10c range but factoring in the Northerly wind chill probably feeling around the 5c mark  with any PPN turning wintry especially further north and over the hills

C.S. 

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Now that does warm the cockles

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_30.thumb.png.b39614e626f2318f86a72b35828a70fa.png

For all the cherry picking of "warm" charts, the 06Z OP evolution follows a similar line to the 00Z with disturbances forming to the N of Iceland or off the Greenland coast heading E and then SE into Scandinavia. A wind direction from the NW and occasionally N doesn't suggest and immediate return to spring like conditions and as others have said, the continuing very dry spell is starting to cause some concern.

The position and orientation of the HP post-Easter is still far from determined, however, and until that's resolved we won't have a clearer picture. The GEFS offers many solutions and subtle differences to the HP will have more significant impacts over the British Isles.

Edited by stodge
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
2 minutes ago, stodge said:

For all the cherry picking of "warm" charts, the 06Z OP evolution follows a similar line to the 00Z with disturbances forming to the N of Iceland or off the Greenland coast heading E and then SE into Scandinavia. A wind direction from the NW and occasionally N doesn't suggest and immediate return to spring like conditions and as others have said, the continuing very dry spell is starting to cause some concern.

The position and orientation of the HP post-Easter is still far from determined, however, and until that's resolved we won't have a clearer picture. The GEFS offers many solutions and subtle differences to the HP will have more significant impacts over the British Isles.

My cherry picking of a 'warm' chart was merely a tongue-in-cheek post suggesting we are blessed with cold air being dropped over Europe

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Never mind, according to this latest release from UK Met Spring is getting warmer!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/warmer-springs-but-easter-frost

Fits my statistics over the past 20 years especially comparing them to RAF Finningley for the 1960-90's

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

If the GFS Charts prove to be right..over here we will go from winter this weekend...below freezing with plenty of snow to summer next weekend with sunshine and temps in the low to mid 20s 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

It's looking like a rather cool and dry week for many of us.

The Atlantic ridge/Scandinavian trough setup has been a pretty consistent message from modeling over the last few days- a couple of images from the ECM mean outputs for day 4 and 7 gives the general outlook.

EDM1-96.GIF?13-12EDM1-168.GIF?13-12

so cool North Atlantic air coming se around the high bringing below normal temperatures but with little rain looking likely so a mainly dry picture quite widely.

Usually in this setup we see quite a lot of cloud coming in off the Atlantic and the odd shower or drizzly outbreaks can't be ruled out as weak fronts move down in the flow.

Fax for Sunday shows this sort of pattern.

fax84s.gif?1

All in all not great but with the extra layer or 2 on ok for getting out and about over Easter.:)

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been a much cooler week since Sunday's taste of Summer, as we go into Easter weekend remaining on the chilly side with limited sunshine, tuesday onwards it looks like we'll be picking up some arctic air from the northeast which should give cool clearer days and the increasing risk of night air frost, ECM/GEM 12Z showing some very impressive northerly height rises, all in all not a bad outlook. :)

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The anomalies this evening are all cooking with gas. Upstream we have Alaskan ridging into the Pole and a quite intense vortex lobe northern Canada with energy conduits to the trough to the south east and, in particular, to the Scandinavian/eastern European trough. Downstream, in the middle of these  energy flows, we have strong positive anomalies and high pressure setting up shop west of Ireland. This portends a NW/N upper flow with temps below average a tad but precisely what weather impacts the UK is, as usual, dependent on the configuration of the high cell and it's proximity to the UK which basically dictates the track of the troughs created by the aforementioned energy conduit. The percentage play is dry and cool for most with the usual caveats vis temp and cloud.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.4330363b8ccb0e0cdadaf385582f973f.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.43242063b7f0c4a3daeb3783372a2d13.png610day_03.thumb.gif.97057a83fd31dcb85848c88fb6f3e778.gif

In the later period the agreement loosens somewhat, not particularly surprising, The GEFS and EPS are looking to retrogress the pattern somewhat with the trough in closer proximity but NOAA isn't very keen so for now a watching brief

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.10fd8d013c9cba6c51d5735f2123a4a4.png814day_03.thumb.gif.b321738667104cce3eb125694d10ec15.gif

Edited by knocker
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Short and sweet this morning. The trough slips down the North Sea on Monday so a cool showery day but mainly in the east and thereafter for the rest of the week and the weekend the high pressure is in close proximity. Thus continuing the dry theme with the usual caveats vis cloud and temp.

gfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.69c0191d4d56772edb2c50ce57bd150f.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_34.thumb.png.74ebf453cd1b19e9775f07ba940abbb6.png

No arguments from this morning's GEFs

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_47.thumb.png.ea15e5b01ab507a3e2802fa70bd90f05.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm is looking to retrogress the high pressure towards the end of the run allowing troughs to swing SE across the UK, This is not at odds with the previous run and to some extent what the EPS has hinted at but at this stage just a watching brief

ecm_z500_anom_natl_10.thumb.png.c4cee64400f50f7724372e24cf8de137.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well it feels like it's been trying for months to get that high to build towards Iceland and the ECM is really going for it now. If it's right, expect to wear a thick coat at the end of next week and keep that ice-scraper handy for the morning. 

However, the GFS as usual in these situations plays a slightly different ball this morning - high pressure a bit nearer the UK bringing a rather more gentle northerly/NWly flow with more of an Atlantic origin - ditch the thick coat for this scenario, and ditch the coat altogether in the south.

Will the ECM finally call the North Atlantic high / Scandi trough right? Recent history would side with the GFS but you feel the cold charts can't be wrong forever...

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland
19 hours ago, johnholmes said:

Never mind, according to this latest release from UK Met Spring is getting warmer!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/warmer-springs-but-easter-frost

Fits my statistics over the past 20 years especially comparing them to RAF Finningley for the 1960-90's

 

Apologies for taking this further off topic, but I think a lot of farmers and crofters in the North of Scotland would find that hard to believe - there is plenty of comment that the seasons appear to be getting later, Northernlights has posted on numerous occasions over in the Scotland weather thread that turnout dates for cattle on the Moray Coast have been getting later and later recently. 

So is there something more nuanced going on? Well if you look down that Met Office article there is a graph which from an admittedly casual glance looks to suggest in the latter part of it (2000 onwards) that March frosts are reducing and Spring frosts as a whole increasing slightly - meaning colder conditions are shifting into later spring. This would also fit with what's been seen on the ground in the West Coast ski areas and on CairnGorm Mountain. It's also been hypothesised that the later occurrence of spring cold spells has contributed to the resurgence of snow patch survival on the Scottish mountains through summer.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North York Moors
  • Location: North York Moors
1 hour ago, skifreak said:

Apologies for taking this further off topic, but I think a lot of farmers and crofters in the North of Scotland would find that hard to believe - there is plenty of comment that the seasons appear to be getting later, Northernlights has posted on numerous occasions over in the Scotland weather thread that turnout dates for cattle on the Moray Coast have been getting later and later recently. 

So is there something more nuanced going on? Well if you look down that Met Office article there is a graph which from an admittedly casual glance looks to suggest in the latter part of it (2000 onwards) that March frosts are reducing and Spring frosts as a whole increasing slightly - meaning colder conditions are shifting into later spring. This would also fit with what's been seen on the ground in the West Coast ski areas and on CairnGorm Mountain. It's also been hypothesised that the later occurrence of spring cold spells has contributed to the resurgence of snow patch survival on the Scottish mountains through summer.

It's the same here, we used to be usually able to get cows out by 20th or 25th in 1970s and 80s but now 1st May or later is the norm.
Usually the prolem is ground conditions too wet rather than lack of initial growth, but if mine were out now, after a big dust storm they'd scoff the lot in about a week and regrowth would be negligible as nights and ground temperatures are still too cold.

We still have the almost inevitable springtime delight of a protracted spell of east or north-east winds bringing in sea fog and 7C maxmums to look forward to, usually the west side has glorious sun and 15-20C during that fortnight.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

GFS suggesting a promising start to next weekend....

image.thumb.png.61a0f5bd0bc88121b0a624f8ad424737.png

Is this the perfect position for high pressure over the UK?

ECM not too far away either....

image.thumb.gif.c0978837da0895b652c3123cb8ef2701.gif

Admittedly this situation deteriorates in the next few frames but we can only hope for more improvements as we get nearer to the time.   For the time being I am making the most of the seemingly continuing absence of precipitation IMBY - it makes a pleasant change!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Let's hope the GFS 18Z is onto something, really hope we can be rid of this awful spell of north-westerlies here- similar to north-easterlies for the east, they are almost relentlessly dull and cold in these parts.

The 18Z is an excellent run- there does seem to be a trend towards a  more favourable position of the high pressure this morning for the UK. Fingers crossed the ECM comes on board later. Potentially some cold nights next week with warm afternoons for many if the high positions itself right over the UK.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
14 minutes ago, 4wd said:

It's the same here, we used to be usually able to get cows out by 20th or 25th in 1970s and 80s but now 1st May or later is the norm.
Usually the prolem is ground conditions too wet rather than lack of initial growth, but if mine were out now, after a big dust storm they'd scoff the lot in about a week and regrowth would be negligible as nights and ground temperatures are still too cold.

We still have the almost inevitable springtime delight of a protracted spell of east or north-east winds bringing in sea fog and 7C maxmums to look forward to, usually the west side has glorious sun and 15-20C during that fortnight.

This spring however has stared off a ltitle better  with Skye wintering sheep getting fresh growth in the last week of March before going home on 5th of April. Cows are getting out to graze on this  April growth a few hours every day toppped up with silage/concentrate just now but looking at the week aheads temperatures especially night times it looks like its going to be mid May before the growth is fast enough to sustain them outside full time.. The countryside is  greener looking than last two years but geese are still here topping grass and cereals and most trees are still bare

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Not to sound a killjoy..But let's please stick to Model Discussion only in here please and use the Spring thread for chit-chat.

Thanks and I hope all members are enjoying there Easter Bank Holiday.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

With the BH weekend out the way that brings the return of high pressure surface conditions will vary get any sunshine it will be very pleasant get stuck under some stubborn cloud and it could feel a bit chilly

UKMOPEU12_72_1.thumb.png.c68a3a864e26f2ed4e00c7905379d212.pngUKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.88970d29a660d2d2ac4b02b5b504fb53.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.58c78a3b0bfc8983633266602473d769.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.fa64c84b098fa5cf354cceae7fdf47f5.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Interesting that the GFS 12Z is sticking to its guns from earlier- with the high settling over the top of the UK as opposed to the west of us. I imagine this would mean a lot more sunshine for most, although not particularly warm and night time frosts could be a possibility.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 12z, after a largely settled spell for most of next week trends colder and more unsettled towards the end of the week with arctic air flooding south bringing unseasonably cold conditions with showers, some wintry with snow on hills and a risk of night frosts and icy patches as the high pulls back to the w / nw with a scandi trough and the uk in a cold Northerly arctic maritime air stream.:cold:

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

168_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp500.png

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp500.png

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp500.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm still looking to retrogress the HP and swing the trough south east at the end of the week and introduce some unsettled weather in a cool northerly

ecm_z500_anom_natl_8.thumb.png.79e7186ad4088d37e7a564c29a545aba.pngecm_z500_anom_natl_9.thumb.png.b96a6bd5befd671918f3beb6b525cda3.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

say unseasonably cold Frosty, but as we all know, that setup is way more common Apr/May, than the so called 'winter'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...