Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

Quite a chilly looking Ecm 12z next week, would be a bit of a shock following such a warm weekend further south. Cold enough at times for wintry showers and frosty nights.

Edited April 6, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

I still think that they are underestimating temps for both Saturday and Sunday by 2-3c, in the SE and EA anyway.

[ANYWEATHER]

So both ecm and gfs introduce us to a fairly cold airmass after this weekend, so in summary after this weekend's warmth ,potential for frosts and cold winds into the ten day period, but I imagine most places will see little rainfall in the  days ahead. But given any sunshine it will at least feel pleasant

[damianslaw]

After a couple of days when the models appeared to be moving away from a colder 'northerly' airstream next week, today they are back to showing such a scenario, with the change now well within the reliable, i.e. early next week. So after what looks a warm weekend for some, especially the south and east, a marked change to something cooler looks likely early next week, with frontal activity moving in from the NW, and heights building to the north, with the azores high pushed out to the west and ready to join hands with those building heights, a trough looks likely to the east.. not good signals for those hoping for a warm run in to easter, but still can't be called just yet.. bit of sod's law given this year easter is late, and the weekends before have brought great spring weather.. 

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z gfs ready to pounce earlier than the 12z with a northerly at 144hrs,i just hope that this is a blip and we can enjoy a nice bank holiday/easter weekend

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS is doing its usual thing anything remotely "cold" is being pushed further and further back with high pressure still hanging around. 

Given the time of year you could have 0--5 uppers and it would still be very pleasant in the day. BUT that also begins to enter April shower territory. 

It would have to be quite something to have anything remotely cold now. 

For now I wouldn't be looking past day 3-4 as after that the current variations are huge. Enjoy the gorgeous weekend coming up. 

Down south today will be our 3rd day on the trot with wall to wall sunshine 

 

[knocker]

As John has previously pointed out there has been little agreement on the Easter weekend, even with the anomalies. Having said that NOAA and the EPS were on the same page last night without fitting like a glove so the question still remains open although I must admit I favor the uUnsettled N/S split solution rather than this mornings GFS det run.

So skipping this weekend that has been extensively covered.

As the current high pressure slips away to the south east the renewal from the south west begins at the beginning of next week but it's progress is quickly halted by the trough tracking ESE north of Scotland  on Tuesday which brings with it showery rain and a quite strong NW flow over the northern half of the UK with temps a this stage still around average.

Also at this stage there is a pretty good agreement with last night's ecm but not for long. From here the gfs quickly tracks the low into the southern Baltic and points east and whilst doing so introduces a very brief cooler northerly before the high cell moves in from the west.

From here the gfs keeps the high pressure influence over the weekend and even builds on it which is very much at odds with last night's ecm so it will be more than interesting to see this morning's.I cannot see any obvious support for the gfs evolution in last night's anomalies. Having said that this morning's GEFS is pushing the HP more.

Edited April 7, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm appears to be paying a little bit of homage to the gfs this morning but not much and there are still major differences over the Easter weekend. Much the same up to midweek and the tracking of the low  It does then move the high pressure east with some extended northern ridging which does briefly hold up the next trough incursion and keeps England under some benign weather Friday and Saturday. But the trough does finally make inroads in Scotland on Saturday and tracks south east overnight. This is still a long way from being done and dusted but I lean towards the ecm

Edited April 7, 2017 by knocker

[rain_shadow]

18 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Just been reading Exeter's update, doesn't indicate anything particularly chilly next week or beyond, just some wintry showers on northern hills for a time next week, par for the course, it sounds quite average after the warm sunny weekend and nothing like what the gfs / gefs is indicating.

Not change whatsoever this morning. Disgusting stratus. Third day of lost sunshine...

[damianslaw]

Oh dear no posts in 12 hours, the thread has gone dead.. not sure why, the weather isn't particularly static at the moment, indeed quite a changeable outlook, some early summer type warmth this weekend for favoured spots in the south and east, becoming cooler everywhere on Monday with a clean sweeping classic cold front moving down from the north, the rest of next week sees rather average temperatures, mostly dry in the south, showery outbreaks in the north and a chilly wind

Models are fairly consistent in showing high pressure languishing to the SW over the easter period, trying to ridge northwards but coming unstuck against bigger forces and a significant change over arctic profile, i.e. significant northern blocking, deep long wave trough anchoring down over Scandi, and a decidedly cold outlook just after easter.

[knocker]

The models are really struggling to pin down the Easter weekend and this evening there are still major differences between NOAA, the GEFS and EPS The det runs still need the sort the evolution post the mid week depression and until that is done it's impossible to be in anyway definitive. Suffice it to say it will be cooler that this weekend and the best guess would be a N/S split which basically is just a cop out.

Not a lot of point looking further ahead although it's worth noting that they agree on renewed amplification in the period, including the latest EC46, The GEFs and EPS quite marked Atlantic ridging. This could well indicate a NW upper flow, and even according to the EPS, veering northerly and thus a period with some quite depressed temperatures.

[knocker]

Sunday sees the transition to a cooler, more unsettled spell, and the difference between the the NW and SE is quite marked by midday.

And so on to next week and Easter. Need to really wait for the ecm but as yet still no great clarity on the probable detail over the weekend. As mentioned previously the beginning of the week doesn't appear to be a great problem with the trough tracking ESE north of Scotland, depressing the ridge and briefly introducing a NW flow which veers N by midnight Thursday as the low reaches southern Norway. This heralds a renewed effort by the Azores to ridge but it doesn't really gain any traction and by 12z Friday the next low is in the Iceland area beginning it's journey into southern Sweden which is more or less a repeat of the previous scenario.

You can see the problem. We are right on the boundary between the troughs and energy swinging east from N. Canada on a reasonable jet and the Azores to the south. Not forgetting out cut off low to the south west running interference. Thus by Sunday we find some shallow lows traversing the northern half of the UK bringing showery rain albeit temps holding up pretty well. Best left there

[Frosty.]

Well the weekend is here and what a beauty, today looks sunny and warm for the majority and tomorrow looks even warmer and still sunny across much of southern uk with temps as high as 23-24c 74f in favoured spots..Enjoy.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues the theme of a cooler more unsettled N/Wly flow into Wk2.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

The GFS this morning continues the theme of a cooler more unsettled N/Wly flow into Wk2.

 

but as Frosty says, got 2 decent days coming up first! but of course you don't like nice weather

[Polar Maritime]

22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but as Frosty says, got 2 decent days coming up first! but of course you don't like nice weather

Yes i will be enjoying it as much as the next as its now on our doorstep, May even get the BBQ out tomorrow with some spots possibly hitting 23c!

But the models certainly show this to be short lived as cooler air spills in for the new working week.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Easter still to be resolved but a general picture is slowly emerging but probably a wee  while before anything definitive, Okay until the aforementioned mid week low but then the ecm has the next further south with a more complex configuration so that by 00z Saturday one centre is over NE Scotland heralding a showery and windy and quite cool Saturday for most. Then after some brief ridging the next system is fast approaching by 00z Monday.

Edited April 8, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

I wonder if somewhere could squeeze 25c tomorrow?

[Frosty.]

30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I wonder if somewhere could squeeze 25c tomorrow?

Hopefully, shame there isn't more interest!

Feeling like summer in early April is fantastic..pity it's not Easter this weekend.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

I think 25c may be pushing it....but I'll be enjoying it regardless! Looking much cooler and unsettled for Easter....typical now I'm off work! 

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning All !  Its a case of enjoying the warm spring sunshine , looks like an abrupt change to colder conditions and even a taste of winter for the north. Not unusual for April anyway. Looking further ahead towards Easter , and it does like being rather changeable and feeling rather chilly too, although to far off at the moment for any detail....

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I think 25c may be pushing it...

I think 22-23 celsius is likely on sunday afternoon across s / se uk, with somewhere possibly squeezing 24c 75f..superb!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Hardly looks bad next week away from the far north. High pressure never far away and the cold air never really makes it to the south. So while it will be cooler, I don't think it will be anything near as bad as it was showing. 

Best get use to it as summer is just round the corner the very deep depths of the gfs even show our first attempted plume!! That will change of course 

[comet]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Hardly looks bad next week away from the far north. High pressure never far away and the cold air never really makes it to the south. So while it will be cooler, I don't think it will be anything near as bad as it was showing. 

Best get use to it as summer is just round the corner the very deep depths of the gfs even show our first attempted plume!! That will change of course 

I would say the opposite. The colder weather that looked set for the Easter weekend now looks to have been put back but the Gefs suite looks  almost unanimous in agreement on northern blocking and Greenland heights after the Easter period with the depth and southern extent of cold push still undecided.

[Eugene]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Hardly looks bad next week away from the far north. High pressure never far away and the cold air never really makes it to the south. So while it will be cooler, I don't think it will be anything near as bad as it was showing. 

Best get use to it as summer is just round the corner the very deep depths of the gfs even show our first attempted plume!! That will change of course 

A temp drop of around 10C from Monday is a pretty big drop and will be a shock to the system for most people, a much cooler week ahead, looks like some extensive northerly blocking setting itself up for the rest of April, this doesn't guarantee cold but it definately increases the chances, there is no sign of a plume in the very deep depths of GFS as you say.

Edited April 8, 2017 by Eugene