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Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, the unsettled weather next week is downgrading compared to what was shown as recently as yesterday and now, high pressure is making a comeback. In the meantime, enjoy the nice warm / very warm weekend ahead across the southern half of the uk.

So much so that it is Met Office's belief (through BBC week ahead forecast) that high pressure will be dominant next week with low pressure's riding over the top of the high pressure. So in essence continuing to be settled in the south and changeable in the north. 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, MattTarrant said:

So much so that it is Met Office's belief (through BBC week ahead forecast) that high pressure will be dominant next week with low pressure's riding over the top of the high pressure. So in essence continuing to be settled in the south and changeable in the north. 

That's a fair assessment, the models have certainly watered down the Atlantic's influence next week with pressure staying relatively high across the south. 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Not a mild outlook from both ecm and gfs  away from this weekend! A cold wind today , but next week looks fairly dry albeit feeling rather cold , the ops models have changed from a rather unsettled outlook to a rather changeable outlook....watch this space  and Ive just watched the BBC weather for the week ahead including Easter,  and its such a laugh, that idiot forecaster does not believe what he his saying...very Ametuer..and  I pay the BBC !!!!:rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Gfs 18z shows a warmer weekend, saturday looks sunny for many with very little in the way of clouds and sunday does too further south / southeast. However, by monday and tuesday there is snow shown across parts of scotland as colder air digs south with overnight frosts.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It's an interesting 18z tonight, set up for cold reloads from the NW as lows slide SE  with some snow for scotland and a colder feel for all..in fact, some snow risk further south too during Easter with frosty nights..:cold:

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Very little rain for a while yet with UKMO showing high pressure to never be far away the bulk of any rain will be in the far north

UKMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.85e223285b97913a9bcdb256dcd35761.pngUKMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.864436daee8bd558d3351eaa1b6a3c2f.pngUKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.5061cc978880af2b5675cf5ca3260b1d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As it stands at the moment the ecm evolution would be the best for a good Easter weekend. After the transition this weekend and the next Azores ridge extending NE it brings the next trough from the north west swinging ESE on Tuesday bringing some wet and windy weather to the north and temporarily displacing the high pressure.This allows time for the low to track into eastern Europe and high pressure to build for the weekend. That's the theory

Talking of the weekend. This Sat 16-18c and 22C possibly 24C in places on Sunday and not much cloud in England.(ecm)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Winter returns during Easter with snow for many and frosty nights on the Gfs 00z.:cold-emoji:

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Yes the GFS synoptic changes quite a bit as do the anomaly charts so to me alkl bets for the Easter weekend are off at the moment, sitting firmly on the fence.

For the differences re anomaly charts, and these differences keep changing pretty much every 24-48 hours. In itself rather unusual for anomaly charts which tend to show much less volatility. It is the change over period though in terms of long wave patterns from winter to summer and this does happen although not so markedly as this year.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
51 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Winter returns during Easter with snow for many and frosty nights on the Gfs 00z.:cold-emoji:

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It looks like the much colder spell for around the middle of the month is starting to gain a lot more traction now although nothing set in stone of course. Loving the warmth and the weekend to come that's for sure.

Edited by comet
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
45 minutes ago, comet said:

 Loving the warmth and the weekend to come that's for sure.

Me too..a lot more sunshine throughout the weekend across England and Wales with temps into the high teens / low 20's celsius, sunday warmest, slowly becoming cooler and cloudier across scotland & n.ireland during sunday.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Winter returns during Easter with snow for many and frosty nights on the Gfs 00z.:cold-emoji:

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Great just in time for the kids retuning to school,don't get me wrong I love snow,but not this time of year,let's hope the GFS continues to do what it has done for the whole of winter show the goods but does not deliver 

C.S. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

I'd love for these cold, snowy charts to come to fruition, but I've a feeling they won't. :(

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 6z shows a warmer weekend across England and Wales with only small amounts of cloud and plenty of strong sunshine, temps into the high teens celsius with favoured spots hitting the low 20's c on sunday, whereas scotland / n.ireland look cloudier and cooler during the weekend, especially sunday.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

I must admit I would not be surprised to see weekend temps especially on Sunday hitting the low seventies in many southern locations. As for the 06z gfs run well its showing the sort of synoptics we were graving for back in Dec, Jan and February with plenty of precipitation to boot.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

More cold reloads from the NW / N with sleet and snow at times from the Gfs 6z, especially for scotland and very similar to the 18z last night with arctic incursions during low res behind lows swinging down from the NW with some frosty, icy nights and a rather wintry Easter..and then another reload incoming at the end.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
  • Location: St Asaph, Denbighshire
1 hour ago, comet said:

A very cold looking set of gefs once this lovely weather breaks down.

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What lovely weather? We did not see the sun in 2 days now here in North Wales. because of the ridiculous low cloud. 10C. Really fed up with this high pressure position. It will reposition to the East fortunately for the weekend. I do not think the cold incrusions will be that severe.

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Edited by rain_shadow
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
42 minutes ago, rain_shadow said:

What lovely weather? We did not see the sun in 2 days now here in North Wales. because of the ridiculous low cloud. 10C. Really fed up with this high pressure position. It will reposition to the East fortunately for the weekend. I do not think the cold incrusions will be that severe.

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Just been reading Exeter's update, doesn't indicate anything particularly chilly next week or beyond, just some wintry showers on northern hills for a time next week, par for the course, it sounds quite average after the warm sunny weekend and nothing like what the gfs / gefs is indicating.

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just been reading Exeter's update, doesn't indicate anything particularly chilly next week or beyond, just some wintry showers on northern hills for a time next week, par for the course, it sounds quite average after the warm sunny weekend and nothing like what the gfs / gefs is indicating.

Afternoon all :)

I think it's fair to say the signal for heights over Greenland and a N or NE'ly flow has ebbed and flowed since early last month. It has yet in truth to come within the reliable timeframe. Heights have continued to build NE from the Azores HP into the British Isles and that has kept much of the country in a benign and often pleasant situation.

The 06Z OP isn't atypical of the suite of GEFS Members - a number have heights to the NW and variations on a cool or cold flow from NW to NE.

Yet until this comes into high-res it's wise to be very cautious - it's been the story of the past couple of months as the displacement of the PV has either not occurred or not occurred cleanly leaving behind a lobe of energy.

OTOH, this is the time of the year when the likelihood of a N or E sourced airflow is at its greatest - it would not be unusual (though it might be a shock to some) to have a much colder end to April and beginning to May than we are currently enjoying. Yet relatively small differences (on a hemispheric scale) mean so much - it's possible we could get a continuation of warmth with HP close by - the GEFS points to a more N or NW centred block and that doesn't mean warmth for us but that's a very long way off.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The ukmo 12z looks decent for the south of the uk during the first half of next week with pressure remaining high..cooler than the weekend but pleasant enough for the time of year 

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 12z churning out some dream wintry synoptics for late April..what coldies would have given for charts like these in January!:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM rock solid with its output at T144 continuing the trend from its 00 run.

UKMO keeping up with events. 

GFS doing its own thing again.

UKMO seems to be the halfway house there.:unsure2::)

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Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
6 hours ago, comet said:

A very cold looking set of gefs once this lovely weather breaks down.

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I think 'very cold' is a rather extreme description! :rofl:

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