Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[snowray]

On Sunday it could get quite humid as cloud moves in from the west, it might not cloud over until late in the day if we are lucky of course but east looks best for some temps to reach the low 20s in any sunshine.

[knocker]

For Saturday the ecm currently has the high cell centred over Belgium so a southerly drift, Probably not a lot of cloud in England and temps in the 16-18C range.

The overall picture is similar to the GFS with the upper trough starting to deconstruct on Sunday (another very warm day with temps in the 22C range). Then some brief ridging in the south before a depression arrives in Scotland on Tuesday

 

Edited April 3, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Yes, I already said sunday could reach 22c..better weekend than was recently being shown.

Edited April 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Looking at next week, the Ecm 12z becomes unsettled but no sign of a cold snap.

[knocker]

Further to my above the depression has arrived by Wednesday. Both the GFS and ecm are hinting at quite a deep depression in this time frame so perhaps wise to keep a beady.

[Frosty.]

It's a shame the weather is looking so unsettled next week with deep lows being shown..just in time for Easter

Edited April 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean tells us this week with the exception of tomorrow looks predominantly dry and pleasant with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny spells under high pressure. Becoming warmer during the weekend across the south as we import a continental southerly breeze, sunday likely to be the really warm day of the spell across the s / se with 21-22c. Into next week it gradually becomes more unsettled from the w / nw and temperatures return closer to average as next week becomes trough dominated.

Edited April 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[Darkcloud]

First time posting in here so "Hi" to all! Would like to say a huge thanks to @knocker and @Frosty. in particular, for keeping this thread going when the majority have abandoned ship during these quiet times. Your analysis and expert opinion is most appreciated!

Just wondering if anyone has any idea why the models have got it so wrong this winter in showing the holy grail so often (albeit usually at D10!) In my humble opinion the GFS has been really off on one! Ok, the output correctly showed the lingering highs but the frequent eye candy never materialised so after being an avid model watcher for many years, I have lost faith to some extent and wondered if there is a reason for the models performance this winter?

Edited April 3, 2017 by Darkcloud

[knocker]

We are arriving at the period when a closer look at what is in store over the Easter period is in order. Obviously far too early to pin down detail but we should be geting an idea what ball park we are going to be in. At the moment there is no complete day to day agreement with the NOAA, GEFFs and EPS anomalies albeit they are firming up on evolution which is a transfer to a trough influenced UK/NW Europe and ridging mid Atlantic A quick glance at last night's  NOAA and the EPS and you get the drift.

.

Meanwhile back on the farm what shafts of light await from this morning's GFS.

Skipping straight to Saturday 12z we have the high pressure slipping south east into the low countries with the upper tough to the west of Ireland starting to deconstruct. Thus the UK is still just about in the light southerly airs of the former. So probably pretty cloud free in England (taking a punt here) and temps 16-18C

What happens from here on in is going to impact the Easter weekend. The trough duly deconstructs and the northern arm duly effects NW Britain with some weak fronts.

This mere opens negotiations for the ingress of the next major trough tracking into the UK and more amplification mid Atlantic vis the Azores and by 12z Tuesday we have this position and the key question is what next? We seem to looking, once again, at the phasing and interplay of the cold/warm (relatively speaking) and thus how much influence will the Azores have in forcing troughs further north and perhaps the not unusual N/S split. We will see in the fullness of time.

Perhaps this morning's GEFS is supporting this

Edited April 4, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Excellent summary knocker, keep up the good work.

[knocker]

I know not why but a quote from Virgil springs to mind.

Anyway this morning's ecm and the difference with the GFS shows how far we still are from pinning the Easter weekend down

Starting at T120 where the ecm deconstructs the trough a tad further west which subsequently effects the ingress of the Atlantic and gives the high pressure more wriggle room. Not to spend too much time on this as still much to be sorted

Edited April 4, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Nice looking Ecm 00z charts here, warming up further south, sunday could see low 20's c in parts of the south before the weather freshens up early next week.

Edited April 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

At D7 GFS is by far the most unsettled when compared to ECM and UKMO extended

GFS

ECM

UKMO Extended

[Frosty.]

10 hours ago, Darkcloud said:

First time posting in here so "Hi" to all! Would like to say a huge thanks to @knocker and @Frosty. in particular, for keeping this thread going when the majority have abandoned ship during these quiet times. Your analysis and expert opinion is most appreciated!

Just wondering if anyone has any idea why the models have got it so wrong this winter in showing the holy grail so often (albeit usually at D10!) In my humble opinion the GFS has been really off on one! Ok, the output correctly showed the lingering highs but the frequent eye candy never materialised so after being an avid model watcher for many years, I have lost faith to some extent and wondered if there is a reason for the models performance this winter?

Cheers Darkcloud, I think it's important to keep the thread going during the quiet times and I also enjoy keeping anyone who wants to read my comments up to date with the latest runs.

I sent you a pm

Enjoy the predominantly settled weather the models are showing this week as it looks like next week will be more unsettled, or at least changeable.

Edited April 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

Darkcloud. I was thinking the same thing about this D10 business, I know that its to far out for any accurate forecasting purposes but the charts have shown colder/wintry weather, particularly from GFS, so many times at around D10 and then they are just dropped. There has even been virtually full agreement on the ensembles at times too, we saw this also with the ECM around mid winter, and yet there has not even been a trend to colder weather, they have all been wrong, wrong, wrong, never any upgrades for cold, and we at best have ended up with the dregs of any cold shot. 

 

Anyway, lets enjoy the good weather later this week, Sunday still looking very mild, the cloud thats coming in may spoil things though further west. GFS probably underestimating temps again there.

 

[knocker]

There continues to be some notable differences between the GEFS and EPS anomalies this morning, in particular the treatment of the Alaskan and Russian ridges and the Siberian low. But our old friend is back over N. Canada with associated trough SE towards the UK. So still looking at low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic with ridging further west which really just reaffirms what has already been indicated. I suspect it will nearer the weekend before firmer detail is available for Easter.

 

Edited April 4, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows the generally settled conditions continuing across most of the uk during the coming days and becoming warmer by the weekend, especially across southern uk, by sunday temps could reach 21c in the south. Next week becomes more unsettled for all and gradually cooler but then towards Easter its more of a n / s split with the south becoming drier and brighter for a time with temperatures slowly recovering again. Further ahead becomes warm and humid with sunny spells but also some heavy and potentially thundery rain and showers with temps into the upper teens to low 20's celsius, particularly across the southern half of the uk..a lot going on.

Edited April 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[Daniel*]

A cooler phase does look highly likely from the 10th turning more showery/unsettled, there is a good chance some of this precip will be wintry in the usual places, especially for Scotland with modest elevation, temps going slightly below average nationwide especially further north.

Do not let the recent good weather trick you I'd say. 

A kick in the stomach! Good thing it's so far out but you watch.  

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows the highs and lows of the next few weeks with predominantly settled this week and then unsettled next week but around Easter there looks like being an improvement further south whereas the north stays unsettled. The mean also shows gradually warmer conditions during this fri / sat and especially sunday before temps fall closer to average or a little below next week before recovering somewhat.

Edited April 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The change to unsettled and cooler weather next week could be a slow process further south with the s / se having a fine warm start next week and temperatures on sunday could be every bit as high as last week with 22c for similar areas as we import air sourced in southern europe for a time. 

Edited April 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Gfs 12z shows weekend looking good, especially further s / se..plenty of sunshine and warming up..I will take that thanks

Edited April 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Nice weekend for the south of the uk on the Ecm 12z, sunday looks a cracker with 22c for parts of the s / se..a rerun of last week!..maybe a little warmer than last time..may squeeze a 23 celsius.

Edited April 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Not a bad Ecm 12z post settled spell, temperature wise, nothing to worry about and more changeable than unsettled..could be worse. Nice weekend coming up, shame Easter isn't this weekend!

Edited April 4, 2017 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All!!  After a rather benign and settled chilly week , it looks as though we will have a short burst of warmth during this weekend before things turn unsettled late weekend onwards into next week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[knocker]

The ecm has the upper trough, centred Iceland, deconstructing Saturday 12z, and then tracks the surface low east bringing the northern half of the UK within it's circulation whilst the high pressure edges south west. This veers the flow north westerly by 00z Monday which just allows Sunday to remain on the warm side

Thereafter a battle ensues between the warm and cold air and as has been frequently mentioned how the phasing of this pans out will dictate the Easter weather. This evening it starts with a N/S split in a strong westerly flow with periods of showery activity, pretty much confined to the north before some brief ridging around Thursday before the entrance of a deep low in mid Atlantic with associated fronts approaching Ireland on Good Friday.

Edited April 4, 2017 by knocker