Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

So this really could be the warmest march day for 5 years..very noteworthy..feeling like summer..Gfs 6z showing the general maxima but within that warm zone some spots are likely to reach 21-22c this afternoon..enjoy 

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Nice end to the ECM this morning with +10 uppers into the far south SE

 

 

Yes it's very nice to see, hopefully something like this will become reality..enjoying this warm spring weather..as I'm sure many are.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

So this really could be the warmest march day for 5 years..very noteworthy..feeling like summer..Gfs 6z showing the general maxima but within that warm zone some spots are likely to reach 21-22c this afternoon..enjoy 

A lot more sunshine around again than was expected by GFS and its turning very mild, 18c widely in South & East Anglia, 19c achieved already at Woburn.

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

So this really could be the warmest march day for 5 years..very noteworthy..feeling like summer..Gfs 6z showing the general maxima but within that warm zone some spots are likely to reach 21-22c this afternoon..enjoy 

 

Yep already 19c and rising in a few spots

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, snowray said:

A lot more sunshine around again than was expected by GFS and its turning very mild, 18c widely in South & East Anglia, 19c achieved already at Woburn.

Yes it's fantastic weather considering we are still in March..hope it means we are in for a scorching summer..awful winter..very good spring..so far  .........  summer 2017? more settled weather on the way next week according to the models.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Plenty of high pressure on the Gfs 6z from next week onwards with pleasant sunshine and chilly nights..even some late retrogression and an Arctic incursion in late low res with some snow in the far NE.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it's fantastic weather considering we are still in March..hope it means we are in for a scorching summer..awful, winter..very good spring.  .........  summer 2017?

London and Leeds ensembles for GFS 06z, looking remarkably dry and pleasant, more changeable and possibly colder as we head towards Easter.

 

(21c at Gravesend @ 1pm, not all that far away from here.)

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean indicates an increasingly pleasant anticyclonic outlook next week with sunny spells and light winds but nights look chilly where skies clear. Beyond next week there is a colder and more unsettled trend.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

London and Leeds ensembles for GFS 06z, looking remarkably dry and pleasant, more changeable and possibly colder as we head towards Easter.

 

(21c at Gravesend @ 1pm, not all that far away from here.)

21c and rising..warmest march day since 2012..nice

[snowray]

22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

21c and rising..warmest march day since 2012..nice

Yes indeedy, lots 19's & 20's around now a lot further north and west than was expected too, Gravesend now 22c according to the Met Office site!

Edited March 30, 2017 by snowray

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes indeedy, lots 19's & 20's around now a lot further north and west than was expected too, Gravesend now 22c according to the Met Office site!

Lovely jubbly, enjoy it..looks like next week could see the warmth and sunshine return if the Ecm 00z is right. just looked at my weather app and it looks sunny across the SE and east anglia.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a showery trough in situ on saturday with sunshine and heavy, slow moving thundery April showers and temps into the low teens celsius but then a ridge builds across the uk from the west for sunday with a much better day, dry with sunny spells and temps a notch warmer...and then next week becomes increasingly dominated by high pressure, at least across the southern half of the uk with pleasantly warm days bringing good spells of sunshine and light winds but chilly nights where skies clear with a risk of slight frosts and patchy fog.. a bit more changeable in the far north and increasingly unsettled across the far n / nw later.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Long way out but there are hints from the GEFS 6z for a colder Easter with sunshine and showers, some wintry with snow on northern hills with night frosts under clearing skies.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

And it's official, Gravesend in Kent has recorded the warmest March day since 2012 and in only 4 years has 22c been reached in March since 1968.. I wonder if we will see any early April high temperature records..there's a chance if the Ecm 00z is on the money.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

As usual, the models underplay the temperatures!



The 6am run today was widely 2-4c under the temperatures that have been recorded. Moral of the story - don't take model temperature forecasts too literally!

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

As usual, the models underplay the temperatures!



Moral of the story - don't take model temperature forecasts too literally!

I don't, I thought the Gfs was undercooking the temps and it sure was.

[Man With Beard]

The ECM chart this morning shows a tasty draw from the south with low pressure lurking to the SW ... always a bit dodgy predicting a temperature until a clear picture of cloud levels / fronts, leading to a massive temperature variance between the continental air and the cloudy areas - also, is the draw going to be static north sea or true continental? 

A couple of extra charts are useful:

  

Rainfall far away in Biscay. 552dam air already over the UK, 558dam not far away. No NE influence except perhaps for Norfolk/Lincolnshire. Winds straight off E France

If sunny, I don't see why 25C couldn't be achieved on such charts, either at D10 or D11.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM chart this morning shows a tasty draw from the south with low pressure lurking to the SW ... always a bit dodgy predicting a temperature until a clear picture of cloud levels / fronts, leading to a massive temperature variance between the continental air and the cloudy areas - also, is the draw going to be static north sea or true continental? 

A couple of extra charts are useful:

  

Rainfall far away in Biscay. 552mb air already over the UK, 558mb not far away. No NE influence except perhaps for Norfolk/Lincolnshire. Winds straight off E France

If sunny, I don't see why 25C couldn't be achieved on such charts, either at D10 or D11.

I agree with you MWB..pretty much what I said further up the page. :-)

[Frosty.]

Taking a snapshot around next wed / thurs from the ukmo / Gfs / Gem 12z shows high pressure firmly in control, pretty much centred over the uk..looking good, pleasantly warm and settled with sunny spells and light winds. 

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Again, long way out but just like the GEFS 6z, the 12z shows support for a colder spell around Easter with a generally NWly / Nly airflow, cold enough for snow on northern hills and wintry showers even to some lower levels with a more meridional pattern, frosty / icy nights too..

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a ridge pushing in from the west by sunday and from there becoming increasingly anticyclonic during next week, just as the rest of the 12z output, feeling pleasant in the strengthening early April sunshine and becoming much warmer towards the end of next week with temps into the mid 60's F..perhaps higher..very warm end to the run across the south with low 70's F..as today.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

The end of the ecm det poses some, albeit slightly academic, questions With the energy rushing around the top of the HP and the trough disrupting to the west what happens next? Another surge of the Azores tilting NE or will a trough pop down from the NW? Best to fence sit and compromise.

Edited March 30, 2017 by knocker

[damianslaw]

I continue to dip in and out of model watching at the moment - and the theme of relatively benign conditions looks like staying, with the wettest cloudiest conditions reserved for the north and west, the south and east enjoying more late spring warmth rather than early spring warmth, feeling more like mid-late May, than early April, though some chilly nights look likely next week, hard to say how high temps will climb, there won't be a moist southerly draw compared to today, so perhaps late teen maxima rather than low 20's but very respectable.

Longer term, anticyclonic conditions more likely to hold the atlantic at bay - as is often the case in April, which is often the driest month for many, and the quietest atlantic wise. Key question will heights build to the east, or head NW, some hints the latter may occur, again very normal service for April, when northerlies and north easterlies are much more likely to affect the country.

I'm always a little nervous when we have sustained well above average temps, and little rain, with lots of sunshine in early spring, recent years when such weather has occured, Apr 2007, Apr 2011 and March 2012 were followed by preety poor summers it has to be said, whereas March/April's with cold and easterlies and northerlies such as 1995, 1996, 2005, 2006 and 2013 have been followed by decent or very good summers. You can have too much of a good thing too soon... I'd far rather have current conditions and outlook in May..

Edited March 30, 2017 by damianslaw

[cheese]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I continue to dip in and out of model watching at the moment - and the theme of relatively benign conditions looks like staying, with the wettest cloudiest conditions reserved for the north and west, the south and east enjoying more late spring warmth rather than early spring warmth, feeling more like mid-late May, than early April, though some chilly nights look likely next week, hard to say how high temps will climb, there won't be a moist southerly draw compared to today, so perhaps late teen maxima rather than low 20's but very respectable.

Longer term, anticyclonic conditions more likely to hold the atlantic at bay - as is often the case in April, which is often the driest month for many, and the quietest atlantic wise. Key question will heights build to the east, or head NW, some hints the latter may occur, again very normal service for April, when northerlies and north easterlies are much more likely to affect the country.

I'm always a little nervous when we have sustained well above average temps, and little rain, with lots of sunshine in early spring, recent years when such weather has occured, Apr 2007, Apr 2011 and March 2012 were followed by preety poor summers it has to be said, whereas March/April's with cold and easterlies and northerlies such as 1995, 1996, 2005, 2006 and 2013 have been followed by decent or very good summers. You can have too much of a good thing too soon... I'd far rather have current conditions and outlook in May..

March 1990, March 1997 and March/April 2003 were all much warmer/drier/sunnier than average but were all followed by good summers. Indeed, it was the dry and sunny spring in 2003 that encouraged record-breaking heat in August, since the ground was well and truly dried up by that point (and I'm sure we all know dry conditions are better for achieving high temperatures).

Not sure there is much connection tbh. The bulk of summers from 2007 to 2012 were bad or very bad regardless of what the preceding spring was like (2008 had a wintry spring and a washout summer, as an example - certainly here 2008 was a much worse summer than 2011).

Edited March 30, 2017 by cheese

[snowray]

Winter wants to make a come back it seems. White Easter?