Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

Here comes the High..The Gfs 12z is looking very good next week..high pressure becoming centred over the uk and intensifying through next week..pleasantly warm days with sunny spells and light winds but chilly nights with a touch of frost.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

A glass half full view as all your posts seem to be, not sure why?

It is always a bit hard to work out when UK Met say the NW just where that ends. Perhaps it would help IF they said Scotland and parts of NW England to avoid ambiguity? Bu then they probably have a limit on how many words are allowed.

Predicting rainfall more than 24 hours ahead, other than an overall idea of will it be dry or not, is often fraught with difficulty. It is something, for whatever reason, that appears not to improve in accuracy whilst the overall isobar pattersn are now generally more accurate at similar times intervals than they were 10 years ago.

John the state of the glass has nothing to do with my post. My post reflects what the actual chart shows if people want a glossy opticast then that's fine but for people wishing to discuss what the model shows then this is what this thread is for.

To my untrained the charts shows a westerly flow with the high centred West of Ireland. The flow is bringing moisture and cloud around the top of the high as highlighted by the precipitation which is encroaching into Wales and North West england..... Not just the far north west as summarised by summer sun.

I think we all know what can and can't be forecast at these time frames I am not sure why people need to highlight it at every opportunity.

If this thread is basically an ignore everything that doesn't show sunny weather then fine at least I know that now.

 

Edited March 28, 2017 by frosty ground

[Frosty.]

I suppose the glossy optocast is aimed at me..but all I do is describe what the charts are showing which is the whole point of model output discussion is it not?

Its turning into a very good spring with lots of high pressure and warmth..and I'm happy the charts are looking so good for next week.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[frosty ground]

27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I suppose the glossy optocast is aimed at me..but all I do is describe what the charts are showing which is the whole point of model output discussion is it not?

Its turning into a very good spring with lots of high pressure and warmth..and I'm happy the charts are looking so good for next week.

No frosty my post was aimed at the chart posted. 

As you have said you are only interested in charts that show sunny weather and not showing the full picture my post would be wasted on you.

This is the first real 'spell' of useable weather and my garden is still to wet to work on. 

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

As you have said you are only interested in charts that show sunny weather and not showing the full picture my post would be wasted on you.

 

If I'm only interested in sunny weather why do I post charts that show rain as I did this morning?..very unfair comment..I post good charts and bad charts as anyone who reads my posts throughout the year will know.

I like to think I give a balanced view with a dash of enthusiasm and optimism..I always try to accentuate the positives and I think there is plenty to be positive about.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[Scorcher]

That is a brilliant run from the GFS this evening if it's spring sunshine you're after- shades of March 2012 in those charts from Wednesday onwards- outside the reliable time frame yes, but all the models agree on a build of high pressure from Sunday- the question is, how will the high position itself and how long will it last.  850 hPa temperatures are nothing spectacular but they look good enough with the strengthening sun now.

[Frosty.]

We are still on for 20-21c on thursday across part of the s / se including east anglia as very warm and humid continental air wafts north into the uk.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Well just for laughs , gfs shows Winter starting on Thursday April 13th  on the outside of its output

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Well just for laughs , gfs shows Winter starting on Thursday April 13th  on the outside of its output

What about the rest of the run? You should work for one of the tabloids!

[Frosty.]

After an April showers start on saturday, the Ecm 12z looks better and better as high pressure builds in next week and really dominates nationwide with plenty of power to add beyond T+240.. becoming settled, warm and sunny but probably chilly at night with a touch of frost and patchy fog.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Following a more unsettled spell and a showery and cooler start to April, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows high pressure will muscle its way into a position of dominance next week as the 12z operational showed earlier with the uk weather, especially the southern half becoming warmer and settled with light winds, variable amounts of cloud and spells of sunshine but nights probably chilly with a risk of slight frosts and patchy fog where skies clear.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is also looking increasingly settled from sunday..next week is looking good if you like fine weather.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wary of this though, April 4, GFS models it at night, too good to be true maybe? if GFS right, then I agree with Frosty, fine decent week

[Summer Sun]

The beebs thought's last night for it to stay dry most of next week away from the northwest look doubtful this morning if UKMO is right after a settled Sunday and Monday pressure falls by Tuesday

If ECM 00z is right then it would stay dry

Edited March 29, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Yes the Ecm 00z becomes largely fine under high pressure next week and warmer again..plenty more warm weather to come this week too.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Tomorrow will feel like summer across the s / se with 22c 72f a possibility, very warm and humid with a continental southerly flow..hopefully a taste of what's to come during the coming months..lovely stuff.

[knocker]

With Easter coming within range time for a look at the recent NOAA, GEFS and EPS anomalies

A few days of high pressure being the main influence over the UK starting next week has been indicated for a while now and continues to be the case. All three have the main vortex lobe Russia with associated trough and the weaker secondary Canada/Greenland/western Atlantic whilst the Azores ridges over the UK. So everything hunky dory so far as this portends a few days of dry, pleasant weather for all with temps generally above average but these are difficult. if not impossible, to pin down at this stage as there are liable to be quit big geographical and diurnal variations.

But the big question is how long will the HP influence last? I haven't noticed any great agreement on the evolution so far and this remains the case although there are indeed signs the the HP will weaken and move east to be replaced by a more zonal regime pretty quickly into this period. Having said that NOAA is in no rush to remove the HP, certainly from the south. which is in contrast to the EPS which has a trough in the vicinity of the UK leading up to the Easter weekend with temps dipping below average At the moment the percentage play would appear to be becoming more unsettled, particularly in the north, with temps around average.

Edited March 29, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tomorrow will feel like summer across the s / se with 22c 72f a possibility, very warm and humid with a continental southerly flow..hopefully a taste of what's to come during the coming months..lovely stuff.

Probably thick cloud and patchy rain and drizzle in many areas worth a mention as well. Just for balance.

[Frosty.]

56 minutes ago, knocker said:

Probably thick cloud and patchy rain and drizzle in many areas worth a mention as well. Just for balance.

And just for balance, plenty of dry weather with some sunny spells across the s / se in particular which will really boost the temperatures into the low 70's F. :-)

Tomorrow looks like being the warmest day of the year so far..and it will be somewhere across the southeast / east anglia..I will be very surprised if 70 F isn't reached in favoured spots tomorrow.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[Hammer50]

This current spell makes up for the non event of winter lovely. 

[Frosty.]

Interesting Gfs 6z low res which shows winter isn't finished with us yet as it shows quite a lot of snow across northern hills with frost / ice additional hazards together with a lot of rain and wind too..would be quite a shock following the spell of high pressure and pleasant temps next week.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[A.J]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

And just for balance, plenty of dry weather with some sunny spells across the s / se in particular which will really boost the temperatures into the low 70's F. :-)

Tomorrow looks like being the warmest day of the year so far..and it will be somewhere across the southeast / east anglia..I will be very surprised if 70 F isn't reached in favoured spots tomorrow.

different model outputs are showing different outcomes just to add to the confusion....lol....NWx hi-res shows sunshine tomorrow at a premium with generally cloudy skies in a humid southerly flow, but where/if the cloud breaks it will feel very warm indeed for the time of year so I'll keep my fingers crossed.....For my neck of the woods in the very short term there is also the low possiblity of elevated thunderstorms overnight due to a narrow lobe of high theta-e airmass which might possibly destabilise (see convective thread for further info)

Edited March 29, 2017 by ajpoolshark

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

different model outputs are showing different outcomes just to add to the confusion....lol....NWx hi-res shows sunshine tomorrow at a premium with generally cloudy skies in a humid southerly flow, but where/if the cloud breaks it will feel very warm indeed for the time of year so I'll keep my fingers crossed.....For my neck of the woods in the very short term there is also the low possibly of elevated thunderstorms overnight due to a narrow lobe of high theta-e airmass which might possibly destabilise (see convective thread for further info)

Fully agree aj..and a fascinating Gfs 6z.

Goes from one extreme to the other with everything in between.

Edited March 29, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

much better for April 4, dry main thing, but not very warm 11° for many

[DR(S)NO]

26 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Interesting Gfs 6z low res which shows winter isn't finished with us yet as it shows quite a lot of snow across northern hills with frost / ice additional hazards together with a lot of rain and wind too..would be quite a shock following the spell of high pressure and pleasant temps next week.

Gosh Frosty, could end up being a rather chilly Easter then.

Could it be one of those years that shows a colder Easter than Xmas?