Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Scorcher]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes Scorcher but I still think the trend is good which is all that matters at this range..even the Ecm T+240 shows high pressure ganging up in the atlantic so I think it would keep building in and forcing the jet stream further north. 

That's what GFS shows as well, it has definitely come on board with the idea of a strong build of high pressure after next weekend. The ECM did flip flop a bit when it started showing this current spell as well.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

That's what GFS shows as well, it has definitely come on board with the idea of a strong build of high pressure after next weekend. The ECM did flip flop a bit when it started showing this current spell as well.

I'm pleased with the trend, it doesn't look like low pressure will be here for long..when it arrives..lots of positives in terms of high pressure building in next week and hopefully gaining a firm foothold with fine and warm weather during early / mid April.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All.! After a beautiful few settled days apart from today, we are now entering an unsettled phase. Low pressure in the days ahead, at day ten gfs and ecm try to build high pressure across the nation, but with a very poor reliability outlook at day ten from both models ,to be honest, day four and five are unreliable from both models, I think we have to look at the more seasonal outlook for guidance ....What you see on day ten from the models wont be there in a few days time  computer models are as useful as a Chocolate Teapot,

[damianslaw]

We've gone from late winter to mid/late spring it seems in the last 4/5 days, the last 3 have brought fantastic conditions here, wall to wall sunshine blue sky, though there is an edge still to the feel of things with a notably cool breeze, but in shelter and under the sun it has felt more like early May than late March.

Alas all set to change again through the night with a slow moving low pressure system anchored to our west throwing in moisture on mild SW/S winds, bringing overcast conditions for most tomorrow, some brightness in the far east, with the east doing best for temps and the west much cooler and unfortunately wetter, with drab dank drizzly conditions, not the best synoptics for western coastal parts and hilly areas. The rest of week maintains the same set up, mild for all, dank and dreary in western places with further rain and wind, drier in the east.

The models then all show a ridge being thrown in behind frontal activity for Sunday heralding the return of fine settled conditions to start April, with the azores high once again ridging in, and the jet maintaining a very northerly position, so April looks like starting on a very fine note indeed. Shame easter is late this year.. Longer term, keep an eye on the position of the PV, it typically implodes on itself during April, making a mockery of short term weather forecasts - April is the most fickle of our months, two faced and has a propensity to go from early summer warmth to later winter cold in the space of 48 hours, the likes of April 2007 and 2011 are a rarity.. so caution should always be reserved in this respect.

[Frosty.]

@ Anyweather.. Day 10? The Azores high builds in from day 6 (Sunday).

Edited March 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

16 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All.! After a beautiful few settled days apart from today, we are now entering an unsettled phase. Low pressure in the days ahead, at day ten gfs and ecm try to build high pressure across the nation, but with a very poor reliability outlook at day ten from both models ,to be honest, day four and five are unreliable from both models, I think we have to look at the more seasonal outlook for guidance ....What you see on day ten from the models wont be there in a few days time  computer models are as useful as a Chocolate Teapot,

 

Thankfully high pressure is showing at a much closer range

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Thankfully high pressure is showing at a much closer range

Yes and there is solid support across the models..and before we even get there, we have plenty of warm weather to enjoy this week too.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean is shaping up nicely from sunday with high pressure building in and that process continues next week..becoming settled with sunshine and warmer, especially across southern uk. 

Edited March 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

From sunday and especially during next week there is very good 00z cross model support for high pressure to return with most / all of the uk gradually becoming settled again with plenty of sunshine and warmer temps..Looking nice and warm for early April.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still got eye though on April 3, GFS being unkind many runs on this day, I live in worst area (best if you like rain)

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Gfs 00z, there is some rain around for the rest of this week but also some dry weather with sunny spells and warm temperatures for the time of year, especially further s / se with the first 21c possible..feeling more like may than late march for some of us.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Away from the far north-west UKMO shows thing settling down from Sunday

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z speaks for itself..temperature wise, very pleasant with some warm days, some chilly nights, plenty of high pressure and sunshine but also showers at times, some heavy and thundery..very good spring weather on the whole.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still wary of April 4 potential soaker, would be great if it moved in overnight, but can we be that lucky? at least it will be mild though, as it is April!

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still wary of April 4 potential soaker, would be great if it moved in overnight, but can we be that lucky? at least it will be mild though, as it is April!

Couldn't ask for better than the 6z shows really, it's got plenty of warmth and high pressure..it's turning into a very good spring.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still wary of April 4 potential soaker, would be great if it moved in overnight, but can we be that lucky? at least it will be mild though, as it is April!

I think you are overplaying this rainfall as worse than it will be in reality!



Rainfall rates aren't really any higher than 1mm per hour anywhere in the country...so just a bit of rain before it moves east and decays. Perhaps a bit wetter in the south according to those charts, but they will change. Pressure will be high and building across the UK, so it doesn't really lend itself to massive amounts of rainfall.

[Sky Full]

5 hours ago, Frosty. said:

From sunday and especially during next week there is very good 00z cross model support for high pressure to return with most / all of the uk gradually becoming settled again with plenty of sunshine and warmer temps..Looking nice and warm for early April.

 

You've posted some stunning images in the last couple of days, none better than those attached to this post!  If we get a week or two of high pressure dominated, settled and warm weather in early April as depicted then I'm putting it at least partly down to your enthusiasm and optimism in influencing the models - how would they dare to disappoint you now?    

[Frosty.]

if only my enthusiasm and optimism influenced the weather / models in winter, we would have had snow galore but now I'm in spring mode and the GEFS 6z mean is showing high pressure returning next week, especially further south with spring warmth and sunshine but still some chilly nights.

Edited March 28, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still wary of April 4 potential soaker, would be great if it moved in overnight, but can we be that lucky? at least it will be mild though, as it is April!

 

We won't have much to worry about if UKMO extended is on the money with rain only affect the far north-west

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

We won't have much to worry about if UKMO extended is on the money with rain only affect the far north-west

So North West England part of the far north west. 

The general flow is west to east around the high, 12 hours later rain will be heading south east breaking up as it goes along. 

That's what the model actually shows. 

[johnholmes]

A glass half full view as all your posts seem to be, not sure why?

It is always a bit hard to work out when UK Met say the NW just where that ends. Perhaps it would help IF they said Scotland and parts of NW England to avoid ambiguity? Bu then they probably have a limit on how many words are allowed.

Predicting rainfall more than 24 hours ahead, other than an overall idea of will it be dry or not, is often fraught with difficulty. It is something, for whatever reason, that appears not to improve in accuracy whilst the overall isobar pattersn are now generally more accurate at similar times intervals than they were 10 years ago.

Edited March 28, 2017 by johnholmes

[nobble]

Reading through , it appears snow chances have almost diminished 

still a few weeks though hey guys

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

So North West England part of the far north west. 

The general flow is west to east around the high, 12 hours later rain will be heading south east breaking up as it goes along. 

That's what the model actually shows. 

Agree with John, your posts are very negative and nit-picky a lot of the time it seems. And in fact the rain is shown over Cumbria and not much further south than that- very debatable whether that counts as NW England- it's not included in the north west news or weather reports.

[Summer Sun]

Not a great deal of change from UKMO

April showers Saturday

Drier Sunday as high pressure builds

[Frosty.]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Not a great deal of change from UKMO

April showers Saturday

Drier Sunday as high pressure builds

Yes it's looking good from sunday with high pressure returning which I'm sure most of us will be pleased to see. And the warmest weather is still to come this week!